Wilma, Tropical Storm or Hurricane?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, it seems like everytime I check the intensity forecast, it drops every 12 hours. Right now it looks like best chances for a cat 1 hurricane at Florida landfall, but at the rate the intensity forecast has been dropping, I'm wondering if it will even be a hurricane by thte time it hits Florida? Of course I do feel bad for the folks in the Yukatan, but this might just end up being a breezy rain event for Florida if these intensity trends continue to drop. I can see why, nothing in the gulf to really intensify this and lots of shear and dry air to weaken it.

[Foladar0]

From watching the news, they've been saying cat 1 for the past two days, if not three.

[O Town]

Plenty of warm water, that is her feul. What do you mean nothing to strenthen it? I think she will be a hurricane for sure, still not sure on the intensity, but at least a cat 1. IMO.

[Foladar0]

Plenty of warm water, that is her feul. What do you mean nothing to strenthen it? I think she will be a hurricane for sure, still not sure on the intensity, but at least a cat 1. IMO.

Yeah news is saying possibly a cat 2, atleast a 1. Prepare for a 3 though.

[Brent]

Plenty of warm water, that is her feul. What do you mean nothing to strenthen it? I think she will be a hurricane for sure, still not sure on the intensity, but at least a cat 1. IMO.

There will be increasing shear as she approaches Florida... though she will have the chance to re-strengthen some in the first 24 hours after she moves off the Yucatan. I still think it will be a hurricane... and I wouldn't rule out a strong Cat 2.

[gatorcane]

cold front coming down has been overplayed by the models IMHO. It's more a November/December-like trough. It's strong now and moving S. but will be dissipated more than predicted by the leftover heat from a hotter than avg summer for the eastern U.S.

In addition current shear maps over the GOM show very little shear that was predicted to be there a couple of days ago.

the GOM loop current is there.

Wilma may not be over land all of that long.

[Typhoon]

People are overplaying the Yucatan stall. Even if Wilma comes inland (quite possible, but by no means definite: Wilma's trying to parallel the coast right now), it might emerge sooner than thought into the loop current. I am calling for a Cat 3 landfall in Florida.

[conestogo_flood]

I don't like those intensity forecasts. When people think it could be a Cat.3+ they freak out and everyone leaves. When it is a Cat.1/2 they just think I will be fine. I am pretty sure those in the path of Wilma, when they see the Cat.1 symbol on the landfall, they are all thinking "boy, what a hype, why should we leave now?". Then, they wont prepare and the worst will happen if that Cat.1 is wrong. It's a goofy system, they should just give a general forecast. Strong Cat.1 to Cat.3 should be what the symbol said. Then people will procede everything with caution.

[krysof]

People always downplay Cat 1's and Cat 2's, some people even downplay Cat 3's. This is probably because I think its human nature to believe that nothing bad with happen to them, and then it does. Someone always says
"it won't be bad, it won't happen to me". Every single person says that, and unfortunately the worst happens. A Cat 1 is dangerous, it kills people. Look what Katrina did to Florida. A Cat 2 is even worse, and yet people go outside to experience it. Of course after Katrina, people took much more caution, but by next season people won't.

[truballer#1]

I don't think its going to weaken a lot when it finallys back to the ocean itll probally be 100-110 mph and gain a lil more streinght to a barely cat 3

[FloridaDawn]

I live inland on the SE coast of Florida, and I have a new respect for even a Cat 1 hurricane. The last two "small storms" we had caused quite a bit of damage and inconvenience. It does not take much for the power to go out down here, flooding, and trees falling down. Driving for 4-5 days to work and back with half the stop lights not working is not a lot of fun! I am the type though, that sat on my enclosed patio watched the wind and rain, and did some wondering around the yard, which is not smart, but, I am just too nosy not to check things out! lol. I am prepared for whatever Rita brings our way, and my shutters will go up no matter what size she is! Be safe all!

Dawn

[Foladar0]

I live inland on the SE coast of Florida, and I have a new respect for even a Cat 1 hurricane. The last two "small storms" we had caused quite a bit of damage and inconvenience. It does not take much for the power to go out down here, flooding, and trees falling down. Driving for 4-5 days to work and back with half the stop lights not working is not a lot of fun! I am the type though, that sat on my enclosed patio watched the wind and rain, and did some wondering around the yard, which is not smart, but, I am just too nosy not to check things out! lol. I am prepared for whatever Rita brings our way, and my shutters will go up no matter what size she is! Be safe all!

Dawn

Sounds exactly like me! Katrina didn't help us at all, but we're ready for Wilma not Rita. Hope you are too

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, looks like the constant drop in intensity forecast has finally leveled off and has actually went up a bit due to less land interaction with the Yukatan. I guess they are saying now it will most likely still be a Cat 2 when it hits land. They still say SIGNIFICANT shear, so I'm not sure how much that will effect it. Oh, and I'm not downplaying a cat 1 or 2, but I'm sure everyone will agree that it's much better than a 3, 4, or 5 right?? So if it lands as a 1 or 2, we should feel thankful, because we know what it COULD have made landfall as. Big difference between moderate damage and devastating damage.

[Bgator]

Official forecast is a 2 now!

[wxmann_91]

NHC usually stays conservative on weakening, so IMHO a borderline 1/2 is probably what's going to make landfall, leaning more on strong 1. TS doesn't seem likely, but remember to always expect at least one category above or below what the official (not my) forecast says.