Wilma about to be influenced by trough! Maybe no stall......

[StormFury]

These are some of the latest observations I have noticed. By the way, I have been using these links for my analysis. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html (water vapor loop, check "NWS front")
Radar http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

Okay, here we go...

1) A strong trough is about to dig into the GOM, which should start to influence Wilma by tomorrow afternoon if not earlier. Remember, the first trough did not pick Wilma up because it bypassed the GOM in a west to east direction over the Northern half of the country. This trough is digging , into the south and making its way into the GOM.
2) As a result, Wilma will probably hug the coast of Mexico, but by no means go as far into the Yucatan Peninsula as many of the models and the official forecast call for.
3) The intensity forecast will probably be off by two categories. Wilma is expected to make landfall as only a mere category 1 over Florida, according to the NHC. However, Wilma will not decrease in strength as much as the NHC calls for it to. In fact, the Wilma will encounter warm gulfstream waters conducive for further strengthening. And, according to the latest sheer analysis, there appears to be no major sheering factors in the environment to the north of Wilma. This is why the NHC restrengthens Wilma after she leaves the Yucatan (cat 1 when she exits the Yucatan peninsula and then cat 2 as she moves further east along the warm gulfstream waters in the southeastern GOM).
4) Therefore, this leads me to the conclusion that Wilma may make an earlier landfall in Florida (12-5 AM Monday as a category 3 near or just south of Naples).
5) Even Don Sutherland agrees to some degree with the observations...here are some of his observations-"My decision to wait before accepting this idea was based on a number of factors:

∙ Prior to the recent model runs, there was a model run that took the above option. However, it reversed itself in the next run.
∙ The NCEP ensemble anomalies depicted a strengthening trough to Wilma’s north.
∙ Historic climatology argued against a stall on the Yucatan Peninsula.
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph"

Source: Don Sutherland, S2K Analyst NYC... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

Comments are welcome!

[gatorcane]

yes you are right

[artist]

my gut says you are right as well as my father-in-law!

[HurricaneGirl]

[gatorcane]

[Foladar0]

What would this do to the projected track?
North?
South?

[gtalum]

What would this do to the projected track?
North?
South?

South, and more intense, IMHO.

[gatorcane]

IF this trend continues I would think a shift north and the intensity forecast would change significantly. CAT 3 into the FL west coast.

[gtalum]

IF this trend continues I would think a shift north and the intensity forecast would change significantly. CAT 3 into the FL west coast.

More intense I could see, if this verifies. But how can it go further north? It woudl be beginning its turn both further south and east than predicted by the NHC track.

[gatorcane]

she would shift north because she would gain more lattitude then expected and be farther north when the trough finally arrives.

If you extrapolate out an expected NE turn, it could be much closer to Tampa Bay. Somewhere between Tampa Bay and Ft. Myers.

[Toro694]

You 2 seem to agree except one says north and one says south. Please elaborate as to why you each have your opinion.

[HurricaneGirl]

:eek:

[Category6]

Ok I agree with all of that, but I have one question. Where do you get the sheer anaylsis from?

[Toro694]

Late with my post. Saw your reasons. Thanks.

[Foladar0]

she would shift north because she would gain more lattitude then expected and be farther north when the trough finally arrives.

If you extrapolate out an expected NE turn, it could be much closer to Tampa Bay. Somewhere between Tampa Bay and Ft. Myers.

Maybe it's the trough digging down causing it turn more northward now?
Just a guess.

[gilbert88]

It would hit obviously further south, but I'm not sure it wouldn't weaken at least to a moderate Cat. 2. Is S Fla well prepared or complacent after the "stall scenario"?

[gatorcane]

it's on the storm2k homepage. There is a link to it.

Currently there is very little shear across the GOM. If she gets there before the trough (which will bring the shear in), she'll have a chance to rapidly strengthen within the loop current.

[gatorcane]

I theorize it's land friction/interaction and weak steering currents. They are so weak that I think that her own outflow is deflecting off the land and pushing her parallel to it.

It doesn't sound credible, but that is what I think.

[Bellarose]

K, looking for a bit of feedback. I've posted on the main page, but no one has answered me. Is it me, or are they predicting - mets or not - more of a north track? I only ask because our evac route is NE of Tampa in Gainesville, so we would have to come up with something else. Apparently, people are too busy with wobbles, etc - and that is not a dig - to give me any input.

Any thoughts?

[krysof]

It would hit obviously further south, but I'm not sure it wouldn't weaken at least to a moderate Cat. 2. Is S Fla well prepared or complacent after the "stall scenario"?

if it continues northward, then it would hit further north, the more west it moves, the quicker the recurvature to the east will be meaning more southward, the storm would turn more NE if the northward track continues
Tampa should watch this one.