For the love of.....

[Bellarose]

Hey now...

I've asked on 2 separate threads and gotten no response. I'm sorry to be an inconvenience, but I'm just as concerned as anyone here. Let me post my question/concern again.....

I live in Tampa. I realize direct landfall will most likely not be here. Our evac plan is Gainesville, so there is a link to the track and our plans. Wouldn't be such a big issue if we didn't have a little one with us. It's very tough to wade through all that has happened today, however, I have heard that the track can, and probably will, shift North. Is there truth/reasoning to this? I am not asking for the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything, just if this is something I need to prepare for. I know the standard answer is to prepare for the worst, etc., but as I'm sure all of you with families know, time is of the essence. Especially if you are new to FL and have very limited options.
Thanks for any input.

Bela

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

my answer:

look at the cone. Tampa Bay is WELL within the cone. Tampa could have a direct hit.

Now I throw in my opinion (just an opinion). It will pass within 50 miles of Tampa Bay.

I've been saying this for a week now.

[Bellarose]

I've been following your posts....hoping you are wrong. But, when this monster first formed all the talk was about Tampa. Now it seems to be slowly and steadily shifting back up here. Of course we are in the cone....so is most of FL, but the buzz has been that the tracks will start shifting south. Just wanted to know I'm not crazy about hearing that.

Thank you so much for responding!

Bella

[Foladar0]

I've been following your posts....hoping you are wrong. But, when this monster first formed all the talk was about Tampa. Now it seems to be slowly and steadily shifting back up here. Of course we are in the cone....so is most of FL, but the buzz has been that the tracks will start shifting south. Just wanted to know I'm not crazy about hearing that.

Thank you so much for responding!

Bella

This is just a personal opinion, possibly a joke, take it with a grain of salt.
Normally, when the cone has a direct hit towards you in the beginning, rarely does it make it back that way.

[thunderchief]

I would at the very least prepare to not have electricity for a while, because there is definetly a decent chance of that happening... or worse... in tampa. If it looks bad the local cops will order you out.

[Bellarose]

Thank you both!!!!

And, I think we are lucky enough to be on the same electricy grid as USF and the hospitals. We lost power for a total of about 5 hours last year through all 4 canes. I'm more worried about the structure we live in. For some reason, when a cane is coming, I feel like it's made of matchsticks!

[tronbunny]

Bella,

We cannot give you official recommendations...
I wouldn't rely solely on the information on these boards.

It completely depends on what area of Tampa you live in!!!
Your place of shelter in Tampa may be a very safe location, or it may be in a danger area, only vulnerable to a direct strike landfall of greater than X intensity...
But there is no way for anyone here to be sure that one location is "safer" than the other.
That said, please monitor your local NWS office and official's recommendations.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/
There should be enough gasoline for a nice 100-200 mile round trip visit inland.
Gainesville is a rather safe location...
if your place of shelter is sound.

[Bellarose]

Thanks, Tron! You have hit the nail on the head with the dilemna. Gainesville is further North, but an older building. I will definately monitor these boards and other official sites.
For the record, I live in Temple Terrace.
Thanks again!

Bella

[jlauderdal]

Hey now...

I've asked on 2 separate threads and gotten no response. I'm sorry to be an inconvenience, but I'm just as concerned as anyone here. Let me post my question/concern again.....

I live in Tampa. I realize direct landfall will most likely not be here. Our evac plan is Gainesville, so there is a link to the track and our plans. Wouldn't be such a big issue if we didn't have a little one with us. It's very tough to wade through all that has happened today, however, I have heard that the track can, and probably will, shift North. Is there truth/reasoning to this? I am not asking for the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything, just if this is something I need to prepare for. I know the standard answer is to prepare for the worst, etc., but as I'm sure all of you with families know, time is of the essence. Especially if you are new to FL and have very limited options.
Thanks for any input.

Bela

dont evac unless local officials tell you too. its that simple. this is not going to be a storm tht re writes history in florida.

[Bellarose]

Let me just add.....I've been following this storm for as long as it's been out there.....I'm exhausted from it, like alot of people are. I'm THIS close to saying the heck with it and letting my local mets tell me what's up. Lucky for me it's Josh Linker, but, I can't keep away from the boards just yet.

I'm sure most of you know how I feel?

[NateFLA]

I've actually sorta reversed your plans... I goto school in Gainesville and I came home for the weekend to Tampa to help out... however that said if it did stay strong and did bear directly down on us, my family and I would pack up and head back to my dorm at UF.

Even still, we all forget Tampa has the magical super-anti-hurricane magnetoweatherbuffer that keeps any significant hurricanes away. In all honesty it has been a looong time since Tampa has had a big hit, and people say "it is time" but there is no time... mother nature does her thing and will not be rushed. Once this thing has some steering currents it will be alot more apparent where it is going, and you will have time to get out if you act smart and do not hesitate.

[Bellarose]

I've noticed the magical powers of Tampa. I have to say, I don't believe in the thinking that it's Tampa's time, either. Thanks for your post and maybe we can have a beer at Satchel's one of these weekends!

[LizzardInFlorida]

Let me just add.....I've been following this storm for as long as it's been out there.....I'm exhausted from it, like alot of people are. I'm THIS close to saying the heck with it and letting my local mets tell me what's up. Lucky for me it's Josh Linker, but, I can't keep away from the boards just yet.

I'm sure most of you know how I feel?

Bellarose - I'm *very tired* too. I completely understand your thoughts and feelings.

It seems there are still no answers. People in the TBA are very weary of this wait - some people reading these threads just don't understand.

It seems if we are north of the most direct path - we are "over-worrying?" I have read posts that downplay our very valid concerns.

I'm not sure why - because we've been watching for days now. I've changed hotel plans 3 times, etc. We're supposed to "be prepared" at every turn - but how can you when the storm is delayed for days on end?

[Bellarose]

Let me just add.....I've been following this storm for as long as it's been out there.....I'm exhausted from it, like alot of people are. I'm THIS close to saying the heck with it and letting my local mets tell me what's up. Lucky for me it's Josh Linker, but, I can't keep away from the boards just yet.

I'm sure most of you know how I feel?

Bellarose - I'm *very tired* too. I completely understand your thoughts and feelings.

It seems there are still no answers. People in the TBA are very weary of this wait - some people reading these threads just don't understand.

It seems if we are north of the most direct path - we are "over-worrying?" I have read posts that downplay our very valid concerns.

I'm not sure why - because we've been watching for days now. I've changed hotel plans 3 times, etc. We're supposed to "be prepared" at every turn - but how can you when the storm is delayed for days on end?

You so GET it! It's the fatigue everyone has been talking about. I'm THIS close to walking away from these boards. Just can't help myself, though!

[bevgo]

Thank you both!!!!

And, I think we are lucky enough to be on the same electricy grid as USF and the hospitals. We lost power for a total of about 5 hours last year through all 4 canes. I'm more worried about the structure we live in. For some reason, when a cane is coming, I feel like it's made of matchsticks!

Inam onnthe same grid as the hospital up the road frome me. We lost power for over a week in Katrina. They just delivered more diesal to keep the generator running. My advice. Get ready for at least a week without power, water, etc. Pack it in your car and go! We finally were able to get out 2 days after Katrina. No outside aid whatsoever. Be ready to take care of all your own needs. BTW toilet paper was scarce.

[Bellarose]

Thank you both!!!!

And, I think we are lucky enough to be on the same electricy grid as USF and the hospitals. We lost power for a total of about 5 hours last year through all 4 canes. I'm more worried about the structure we live in. For some reason, when a cane is coming, I feel like it's made of matchsticks!

Inam onnthe same grid as the hospital up the road frome me. We lost power for over a week in Katrina. They just delivered more diesal to keep the generator running. My advice. Get ready for at least a week without power, water, etc. Pack it in your car and go! We finally were able to get out 2 days after Katrina. No outside aid whatsoever. Be ready to take care of all your own needs. BTW toilet paper was scarce.

Ya know, all this has totally dissuaded me from doing a thing to prepare. We have lots of batteries, canned goods and TP. Tomorrow, if the trends keep going the way they seem to be, I will gas up and think about heading North. Blessed Be for all that you have gone through, my friend, and thank you for passing on your wisdom.

Bella

[seaswing]

Bellarose~ (I really like that name!) this board is a great place to get opinions, sometimes very educated opinions, sometimes just opinions but one thing is for certain, the weather will be bad just about everywhere except the panhandle. If it become extratropical, it will spread out more and central and northern parts of Florida could have tornadoes and squalls at tropical storm intensity at times. So just about anywhere you go in Florida will be nasty for awhile. If your EOC tells you to go, then I would heed their advice but I know all the hotels and motels are almost full if not completely full in this area. It is frustrating and complicated but if you need to leave, if you feel better if you do then do it. Just my two cents.....

[wxman57]

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the lower the risk to Tampa for a direct hit. That cold air is coming down this weekend, and the upper level westerly winds will be dipping sougthward into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Wilma will most likely strike well south of Tampa. Could even turn more sharply and graze the southern peninsula. Still, it's no time to turn your back on it.

[gatorcane]

the cold air mass/trough will be modified greatly as it moves south and the front should stall in the northern GOM or central FL. No way it's pushing through S. Florida. Too early.

[Bellarose]

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the lower the risk to Tampa for a direct hit. That cold air is coming down this weekend, and the upper level westerly winds will be dipping sougthward into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Wilma will most likely strike well south of Tampa. Could even turn more sharply and graze the southern peninsula. Still, it's no time to turn your back on it.

But what of the fact that it seems to be tracking further North? Which takes precedence? I heard of the cold front this morning, but haven't heard much of it since.

Like I said, I truly don't believe Tampa will get a direct hit. My nervousness comes from exhaustion, the fact that we have a toddler, and that we don't ever see hurricanes in RI like we see here! This is new to me. I have a NOAA portable radio, battery operated TV and who knows how many batteries, lots of canned goods and ll I need is water. NOW....compound that with the fact that my mother is supposed to fly down to the Keys on Wednesday, from RI, and I'm all OVER this storm!