The great debate.. Will the track shift NORTH..?

[Josephine96]

I'm reading everybody's opinions here.. even the latest GFS run I spotted had Wilma actually almost reaching South Osceola when she cuts across the peninsula..

but anyway.. Here's the question.. Will Wilma's track eventually shift north and if so.. will it be significant or minor..?

[NateFLA]

I say minor if at all, but we don't know until Wilma starts to actually move.

[gatorcane]

check out the BAMMs (which are usually not that accurate), they bring it into Tampa Bay. No models south of the main peninsula of FL anymore.

Here we go with the north trend as expected...

[Josephine96]

Give me a link to those models please, I know the "spaghetti" runs were still all over the place..

[cjrciadt]

[tracyswfla]

It wont shift North, LOL Anderson Cooper from CNN is in Naples. He is the biggest hurricane magnet this season.

[Bgator]

Models shuld be disregarde ESPECIALLY NHC98. LBAR, and BAMMS....Models also have her moving west starting like now, which isnt happening!

[Josephine96]

LOL Tracy..

That model map I saw does not look overly encouraging..

[Brent]

Not farther north than Punta Gorda, and I really don't see it coming in up there.

[gatorcane]

Basically you have 3 models taking into Tampa Bay now and 3 taking it into SW FL...

that is a signnificant change from a day ago don't you think...

I hope people in Tampa Bay are preparing since they are in the cone.

[Josephine96]

I know we've always had 1 or 2 models taking it into the Bay area... this could get interesting..

[Bgator]

1) steering currents will nto aloow this thing to go to tampa, those 3 models are useless and for statistics only.
2) tampa keep an eye out.
3) Nhc track shuld be the same, steering currents wuld take it right to that point.

[cinlfla]

I don't know about anybody else but to me she doesn't look like she's moving very much. I can't tell which direction sh'es moving in.

[WeatherEmperor]

I still cant believe some are going crazy over the BAM models here. I dont remember how many times to pro-mets have told us to not pay attention to the BAM models especially above 20N and even moreso with mid latitude system interactions. Unbelievable....

<RICKY>

[Foladar0]

I say minor if at all, but we don't know until Wilma starts to actually move.

This is what I agree with, minor if at all.
Some models just aren't good at all with the storm, what if a model had it going into N.O. - would that mean it's going there? Not at all.

[jkt21787]

I still cant believe some are going crazy over the BAM models here. I dont remember how many times to pro-mets have told us to not pay attention to the BAM models especially above 20N and even moreso with mid latitude system interactions. Unbelievable....

<RICKY>

Yeah, the three most unreliable models that can be viewed take it to Tampa Bay and people go crazy about the storm going there now. Hard to understand, honestly.

[MiamiensisWx]

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Wilma has been now shifting continuously slightly further northward. It now takes it as a direct hit on or just north of Naples, then exiting it further north than previously along the eastern Florida coast, now exiting it near or within the Hobe Sound/Stuart area or north of West Palm Beach.

[sprink52]

Yep, the NHC has been on that track for several days now.

[Foladar0]

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Wilma has been now shifting continuously slightly further northward. It now takes it as a direct hit on or just north of Naples, then exiting it further north than previously along the eastern Florida coast, now exiting it near or within the Hobe Sound/Stuart area or north of West Palm Beach.

It's actually been staying about the same, and possibly going both directions as it went an inch south during one of these track movements, but in the same general area IMO.

[ronjon]

The GFS started with a shift north from yesterday runs. The NOGAPS has been on and off with a track through Tampa Bay the last two days. The new 18Z GFDL has shifted significantly northward from its previous two runs (now smashing into Englewood with 120 mph winds). These are not BAM or the equally unreliable LBAR (although LBAR has stayed with a Tampa Bay track for 3 days now). I don't know if its a trend - appears to be. These models may be picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move Wilma more NE than E-NE. Also, there has been no deep penetration into the YP as predicted by a westward movement by several of the models - Wilma looks to graze the NE tip of the YP and thereby may gain more latitude prior to the recurvature.