Fox 13 Tampa

[tampastorm]

Just said with the cold front coming in and being over Tampa, and Wilma being south of us the future cast they use show Tampa with worse weather then anywhere!

[caneman]

Just said with the cold front coming in and being over Tampa, and Wilma being south of us the future cast they use show Tampa with worse weather then anywhere!

Explain!

[Scorpion]

Doesnt make much sense unless they're thinking it becomes extratropical or something while over Florida. The worst winds will be on the southside.

[wxwonder12]

If it is S of Tampa how can Tampa have worse weather than anyone???

[wxcrazytwo]

convergence of the cold front and Wilma. The northern side will be rough with a lot of wind and rain..

[caneman]

the only thing I can think is that it wouldbe from divergence of winds.

[caneman]

convergence of the cold front and Wilma. The northern side will be rough with a lot of wind and rain..

I agree this may be worse case secnario for Tampa. COuld be lots of surge and low level flooding.

[johngaltfla]

Doesnt make much sense unless they're thinking it becomes extratropical or something while over Florida. The worst winds will be on the southside.

It makes since. Look at the forecast they are discussing. You're talking about a large cluster of tropical or warm energy moving SW to NE. Winds will rotate at the cold from from the SE to NW along the axis. Then look at the cold front acting as a shield. The tropical moisture and winds have to be funneled somewhere. That somewhere, IMHO, would be where us poor souls south of the front but north of the landfall will be.

I'm not so concerned about sustained winds like Naples/Bonita Springs will get; I'm freaking out about the potential for a massive torando event.

Like the 1993 No Name Storm where I watched and listened to 39 tornadoes break out in 30 minutes near Lakeland, FL where I lived at that time.

[caneman]

Doesnt make much sense unless they're thinking it becomes extratropical or something while over Florida. The worst winds will be on the southside.

It makes since. Look at the forecast they are discussing. You're talking about a large cluster of tropical or warm energy moving SW to NE. Winds will rotate at the cold from from the SE to NW along the axis. Then look at the cold front acting as a shield. The tropical moisture and winds have to be funneled somewhere. That somewhere, IMHO, would be where us poor souls south of the front but north of the landfall will be.

I'm not so concerned about sustained winds like Naples/Bonita Springs will get; I'm freaking out about the potential for a massive torando event.

Like the 1993 No Name Storm where I watched and listened to 39 tornadoes break out in 30 minutes near Lakeland, FL where I lived at that time.

I agree and posted this earlier. This has the makings to be as bad as the no name.

[no advance]

I agree tornados might be the worst since that storm

[wxcrazytwo]

I agree tornados might be the worst since that storm

I agree. Tornadoes will be extreme since the weather will be violent....

[caneman]

I agree tornados might be the worst since that storm

Does someone have the spaghetti modles to post? Just saw on 13 with 3 over Tampa 3 or 4 over Port charlotte and another 3 or 4 over Ft. Myers/Naples.

[Amanzi]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

[caneman]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

Been following him and I believe he and GFS will win out with Port Charlotte landfall. Which is worse case for everyone from Tampa to Naples. Tampa only 70 miles North with Ft. MYer only 30 miles South and Naples 60 miles South. Would also affect Kissimee/Orlando.

[johngaltfla]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

Been following him and I believe he and GFS will win out with Port Charlotte landfall. Which is worse case for everyone from Tampa to Naples. Tampa only 70 miles North with Ft. MYer only 30 miles South and Naples 60 miles South. Would also affect Kissimee/Orlando.

I'm hoping he's wrong because almost all of the local mets are putting the landfall around Bonita Springs. The further north the landfall would be problematic for everyone except Naples because that might be the weak side based on what NEXRAD is saying.

Wow. What a season. And Alpha should form in the next 48 hours.

Just wow.

[ladygatorslayer]

I've been speculating if I should prepare my yard (including all Halloween decor). I'm all the way up in Pasco.

You have my attention when the No Name Storm is mentioned. My Bestfriend's house had about 3 ft of water in it after that March storm from he$$.

Not only was the West side of 19 underwater, I remember areas to the East also flooding.

[caneman]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

Been following him and I believe he and GFS will win out with Port Charlotte landfall. Which is worse case for everyone from Tampa to Naples. Tampa only 70 miles North with Ft. MYer only 30 miles South and Naples 60 miles South. Would also affect Kissimee/Orlando.

I'm hoping he's wrong because almost all of the local mets are putting the landfall around Bonita Springs. The further north the landfall would be problematic for everyone except Naples because that might be the weak side based on what NEXRAD is saying.

Just saw the Vipir model which did well with Charley. Show Ft. Myers as landfall. With the torrentials/worse rain/possible tornados affecting Tampa due to interaction of fronts

Wow. What a season. And Alpha should form in the next 48 hours.

Just wow.

[johngaltfla]

I've been speculating if I should prepare my yard (including all Halloween decor). I'm all the way up in Pasco.

You have my attention when the No Name Storm is mentioned. My Bestfriend's house had about 3 ft of water in it after that March storm from he$$.

Not only was the West side of 19 underwater, I remember areas to the East also flooding.

Everyone who was in Florida, well, or in Atlanta for that matter, will never forget that storm.

BOHICA. Get your yard cleaned up....

[MysticOne]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

I most certainly didn't like this portion of his discussion:

"Much attention has been devoted to South Florida per other discussions, however if Wilma transitions as projected by the GFDL and GFS, the storm’s greatest impacts may actually be felt across Central and possibly Northeast Florida.

Such a scenario would take place if Wilma draws cool air into its northwest quadrant. With overriding tropical air moving into this back left side of the storm’s center, the airmass there would be unable to hold as much moisture (result of a lower saturation point). The result would be a wide area of heavy rainfall north and northwest of Wilma’s center. In such a tropical to extratropical transition, the storm’s southwest quadrant is often severely eroded by dry air intrusion. Considering the breadth of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico today, it may be possible that Wilma’s entire south quadrant diminishes significantly during the storm’s approach to Florida. If this were to happen, South Florida might experience conditions less adverse than Central Florida."

[TampaFl]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

I most certainly didn't like this portion of his discussion:

"Much attention has been devoted to South Florida per other discussions, however if Wilma transitions as projected by the GFDL and GFS, the storm’s greatest impacts may actually be felt across Central and possibly Northeast Florida.

Such a scenario would take place if Wilma draws cool air into its northwest quadrant. With overriding tropical air moving into this back left side of the storm’s center, the airmass there would be unable to hold as much moisture (result of a lower saturation point). The result would be a wide area of heavy rainfall north and northwest of Wilma’s center. In such a tropical to extratropical transition, the storm’s southwest quadrant is often severely eroded by dry air intrusion. Considering the breadth of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico today, it may be possible that Wilma’s entire south quadrant diminishes significantly during the storm’s approach to Florida. If this were to happen, South Florida might experience conditions less adverse than Central Florida."