Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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#3461 Postby storms in NC » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:29 am

Looking at the visloop looks like she is not going to the next mark. Looks like she is going to go North east which is the shortest way off the Yucatan. But am not a wake yet. so I will wait 2 hours and run it again to make sure.
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#3462 Postby O Town » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:40 am

Image
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#3463 Postby no advance » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:43 am

;

She will push a wall of water on the S side when she moves NE Good luck all Fl. west coastians.
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#3464 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:44 am

O Town wrote:Image


bad news if it maintains its organization like it has been....must hope it stalls again
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#3465 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:46 am

So freakin close to the water. It should be out in 6 hours.
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#3466 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:46 am

all the models have it hitting north of where they had it yesterday (well maybe except UKMET, not sure where that was) none of them have it missing florida now

<img src="http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mlts.gif">
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#3467 Postby O Town » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:47 am

It seems to still be moving at 3mp, hasn't got picked up yet. So maybe another few hours of this with her over land, and she may fall apart some more. We can hope.
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CHRISTY

#3468 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:47 am

this storm continues to move ...i think its about 5 to 6 hours before it gets over the water and grows to a CAT3.
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#3469 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:47 am


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 87.0W 22.1N 87.5W 23.3N 87.5W 25.1N 86.5W
BAMM 21.1N 87.0W 21.9N 87.5W 22.6N 87.4W 23.6N 86.6W
A98E 21.1N 87.0W 21.5N 86.9W 22.6N 87.0W 24.1N 86.1W
LBAR 21.1N 87.0W 22.0N 87.2W 23.5N 86.9W 26.1N 85.0W
SHIP 105KTS 104KTS 103KTS 98KTS
DSHP 105KTS 92KTS 92KTS 86KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 83.4W 39.0N 71.1W 46.8N 54.6W 44.0N 29.7W
BAMM 25.2N 83.8W 32.5N 73.2W 42.2N 59.0W 44.5N 40.2W
A98E 25.8N 83.6W 30.9N 74.7W 37.8N 58.7W 38.1N 35.3W
LBAR 29.8N 80.9W 40.1N 60.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 86KTS 52KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 66KTS 39KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 943MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 150NM
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#3470 Postby k-man » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:50 am

CronkPSU wrote:all the models have it hitting north of where they had it yesterday (well maybe except UKMET, not sure where that was) none of them have it missing florida now

<img src="http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mlts.gif">


The GFDL looks almost exactly the same. Throw out the BAMMs, the LBAR and the A98E....she'll come in far south of us in Orlando. We'll have a rainy and windy Monday. This will be a non-event for us...
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#3471 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:51 am

k-man wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:all the models have it hitting north of where they had it yesterday (well maybe except UKMET, not sure where that was) none of them have it missing florida now

<img src="http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mlts.gif">


The GFDL looks almost exactly the same. Throw out the BAMMs, the LBAR and the A98E....she'll come in far south of us in Orlando. We'll have a rainy and windy Monday. This will be a non-event for us...


non event like charley?
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caneman

#3472 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:53 am

k-man wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:all the models have it hitting north of where they had it yesterday (well maybe except UKMET, not sure where that was) none of them have it missing florida now

<img src="http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mlts.gif">


The GFDL looks almost exactly the same. Throw out the BAMMs, the LBAR and the A98E....she'll come in far south of us in Orlando. We'll have a rainy and windy Monday. This will be a non-event for us...


I wouldn't bank on that pal. Read the Melbourne discussion. With the storm interacting with the cold front you may be in for a surprise. In addiont, the GFS tract it thru Port Charlotte going NE. Remeber Charley?
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#3473 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:54 am

Agree, stay cautious, if forward motion switches to NE from ENE, Central FL could see a lot more than " rainy day".
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#3474 Postby O Town » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:57 am

Yes, please don't say that cronk, she will hear you. How can you forget Charley so quick???? Don't let your gaurd down yet.
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CHRISTY

#3475 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:59 am

this storm incrediblly is still intact because it did not push well inland like it was suppose to so the its only about 5 -7 hours before she moves ofshore.anyway have of wilma has been over water the whole time thats why right now we still have a CAT 3.
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#3476 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:00 am

cycloneye wrote:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 87.0W 22.1N 87.5W 23.3N 87.5W 25.1N 86.5W
BAMM 21.1N 87.0W 21.9N 87.5W 22.6N 87.4W 23.6N 86.6W
A98E 21.1N 87.0W 21.5N 86.9W 22.6N 87.0W 24.1N 86.1W
LBAR 21.1N 87.0W 22.0N 87.2W 23.5N 86.9W 26.1N 85.0W
SHIP 105KTS 104KTS 103KTS 98KTS
DSHP 105KTS 92KTS 92KTS 86KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 83.4W 39.0N 71.1W 46.8N 54.6W 44.0N 29.7W
BAMM 25.2N 83.8W 32.5N 73.2W 42.2N 59.0W 44.5N 40.2W
A98E 25.8N 83.6W 30.9N 74.7W 37.8N 58.7W 38.1N 35.3W
LBAR 29.8N 80.9W 40.1N 60.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 86KTS 52KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 66KTS 39KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 943MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 150NM


i urge everyone to take the hurricane models with a huge grain of salt from this point forward...hang your hats on the globals from this point forward.
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#3477 Postby no advance » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:00 am

k man oh man! Non event. ???????
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#3478 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:00 am

Image
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Scorpion

#3479 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:01 am

It's just a 10-15 minute drive by car from the shore to the center. Just amazing.
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#3480 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:04 am

k-man wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:all the models have it hitting north of where they had it yesterday (well maybe except UKMET, not sure where that was) none of them have it missing florida now


The GFDL looks almost exactly the same. Throw out the BAMMs, the LBAR and the A98E....she'll come in far south of us in Orlando. We'll have a rainy and windy Monday. This will be a non-event for us...


Uh, were you here for the 1993 No Name? That was not a "non-event"..... :eek:
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