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CHRISTY wrote:so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.
6SpeedTA95 wrote:CHRISTY wrote:so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.
I think everyone believes it will strengthen once over water. But the only way its got a shot at becoming a cat4 again is if it misses the peninsula and head through hte keys and between florida and cuba. Given the model tracks and assuming it follows them I dont see anything more than a strong 2 and the further north it goes the worse conditions will be.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMMENCING BY THE TIME WILMA
REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS MID- LEVEL TROUGH SYNCS UP WITH
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND
SPREADING OUT OF RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WIND FIELD ARE JUST TWO OF THE
FACTORS POINTING TOWARD RATHER SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. FURTHER
SUPPORTING EVIDENCE THAT SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLY GOOD ANALOG FOR
THIS EVENT WAS HURRICANE ISBELL IN OCTOBER OF 1964. SHE SPAWNED
PERHAPS A DOZEN TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
INCLUDING 4 OF F2 INTENSITY ON THE FUJITA SCALE. MORE INFO ON THIS
PAST EVENT IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO
ronjon wrote:6SpeedTA95 wrote:CHRISTY wrote:so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.
I think everyone believes it will strengthen once over water. But the only way its got a shot at becoming a cat4 again is if it misses the peninsula and head through hte keys and between florida and cuba. Given the model tracks and assuming it follows them I dont see anything more than a strong 2 and the further north it goes the worse conditions will be.
Not sure I buy all this talk about the storm being a weak CAT 1 or 2 when it makes landfall somewhere on the west coast of FL. I just pulled up the 06Z GFDL - it has the storm weakening to a 75kt hurricane by the time it exits the north coast of the YP about 2 am Sunday morning. It then slowly strengthens the storm to 115 kts by the time it makes landfall near Ft Myers Monday afternoon. Remember, Wilma will be traversing the Loop Current (we know how that affected Katrina & Rita) and the shear doesn't seem to be impeding Wilma in the GFDL model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
Scorpion wrote:According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.
6SpeedTA95 wrote:Scorpion wrote:According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.
In the middle of the gulf they are, the closer you get to florida nad the further north you go the worse conditions get and they get worse in a hurry. It really is dependant on forward motion and shear. SST's are plenty high to support a good storm if it moves fast enough.
x-y-no wrote:tampaflwx wrote:
The 11am advisory position is 21.3N 87.0W, which is substantially NE of the area you have highlighted.
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