Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

FlaNativeMom · #3541 Postby **FlaNativeMom** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:50 am

Has anyone else heard comparisons being made between the impending atmospheric conditions forcast for central Fla over next couple days (ie: warm tropical system - Wilma - colliding with strong cold front moving south) and the conditions that created the terrifying No Name storm of '93?

I've heard concern expressed in other forums over the possibilities, but no mention by local mets. Any thoughts?

Scorpion · #3542 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:52 am

Wow at the GFS. Certainly possible. It is spending far less time on land than previously indicated by models. The GFS is king when it comes to predicting large-scale weather patterns.

6SpeedTA95 · #3543 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:56 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.

In the middle of the gulf they are, the closer you get to florida nad the further north you go the worse conditions get and they get worse in a hurry. It really is dependant on forward motion and shear. SST's are plenty high to support a good storm if it moves fast enough.

SST's to the north of the Yucatan, east and south of Florida are marginal. There is a decent patch up thru the channel towards the CGOM. Not even close to the SST's in relation to where Wilma had the incredible drop of pressure. Don't base it on SST's alone though.
https://www.navo.navy.mil/LIBRARY/Metoc ... mperature/

I'm not yesterday I explained in a little detail about SST's TCHP shearing in the area etc, and I just dind't feel like doing it again because no one pays attention anyways.

#3544 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:56 am

12z GFS at 48 hours.

#3545 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:02 am

GFS at 72 hours has it just off the NE coast.

Stangfriik · #3546 Postby **Stangfriik** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:03 am

cycloneye wrote:

12z GFS at 48 hours.

Seems a little more north. Do you have the link for the animated version?

#3547 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:05 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Loop of 12z GFS.

Rainband · #3548 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:05 am

The worst of the weather should be to the north because of the cold front. Thats what one of our locals just said.

#3549 Postby **Terry** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:06 am

Has anyone else heard comparisons being made between the impending atmospheric conditions forcast for central Fla over next couple days (ie: warm tropical system - Wilma - colliding with strong cold front moving south) and the conditions that created the terrifying No Name storm of '93?

I've heard concern expressed in other forums over the possibilities, but no mention by local mets. Any thoughts?

Yes, Mom, this has been mentioned on S2k and by Fox New 13 in Tamap this a.m.

TS Zack · #3550 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:07 am

Hopefully, this will be the last storm to hit the CONUS.

It looks to be so as we have a strong trough setting-up across the Eastern US. This will deflect anything coming into the Caribbean.

Rainband · #3551 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:09 am

TS Zack wrote:Hopefully, this will be the last storm to hit the CONUS.

It looks to be so as we have a strong trough setting-up across the Eastern US. This will deflect anything coming into the Caribbean.

agreed Zack our local dicussion touches on that

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #3552 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:10 am

Rainband wrote:
TS Zack wrote:Hopefully, this will be the last storm to hit the CONUS.

It looks to be so as we have a strong trough setting-up across the Eastern US. This will deflect anything coming into the Caribbean.
agreed Zack our local dicussion touches on that

Yes I hope so. 2005 has been a season from H---.

#3553 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:10 am

can someone please post the forcast models from sfmwd or operation model guidance site. thanks

Toro694 · #3554 Postby **Toro694** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:10 am

Cyclone is that the latest run? That run looks pretty close to Sarasota/Venice.

Website · #3555 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 am

This is from NWS Tampa:

BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SAY "HELLO" TO
DECEMBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND THE END OF OUR HURRICANE SEASON
SINCE THE COOL AIR WILL SOON KNOCK DOWN GULF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
HOSTILE 75 DEGREE RANGE.

#3556 Postby **sweetpea** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:12 am

Show it coming out right over me. :eek:

But it will probably only be like tropical force winds, right? Debbie

Website · #3557 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:13 am

sweetpea wrote:Show it coming out right over me. But it will probably only be like tropical force winds, right? Debbie

It will likely be a hurricane when it re-emerges if it makes landfall as a Cat 2.

Oh OK... your north of Daytona. On the NHC track you probably won't see hurricane force winds. That would be near the center.

#3558 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:14 am

Toro694 wrote:Cyclone is that the latest run? That run looks pretty close to Sarasota/Venice.

Yes it's the 12z GFS the latest.Below is at 84 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Bgator · #3559 Postby **Bgator** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:14 am

Rainband wrote:The worst of the weather should be to the north because of the cold front. Thats what one of our locals just said.

IF IT does go EXtratropical, Rain will be worse in north, the winds will be in the south!

#3560 Postby **sweetpea** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:15 am

Brent wrote:
sweetpea wrote:Show it coming out right over me. But it will probably only be like tropical force winds, right? Debbie

It will likely be a hurricane when it re-emerges if it makes landfall as a Cat 2.

Thanks Brent, when is it supposed to make landfall? Monday? I have been off the board since yesterday afternoon trying to catch up on what is going on. Debbie

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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