Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[storms in NC]

only part of the eye need to be in the water for it to rebuild. By tonight you will see her go boom.

[ronjon]

GFS looks to be moving morth north...worse for Tampa... will this shift be reflected by other models?

The GFS has been in that area for the past 2 days, Tampa calm down, a DIRECT hit is unlikely, but due to the large wind feild most of florida will get TS winds maybe Cane gusts!Tornadoes will be to south and east of system!

Looks like the 12Z GFS has definitely shifted north - looks like a rather intense cane slamming into Sarasota if this scenario plays out. The really bad news about any shift north is the storm surge. If this thing came in near Tampa the entire southern west coast of the peninsula would see storm tides of 10-15 feet if was a CAT 3. Talk about destruction.

[vaffie]

I continue to find it amazing that the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin formed in October…

and that people think it has no chance of being more than a cat 1 at florida landfall...waaaaay too early IMHO for people to start celebrating

I know--I find it so bizarre. It strengthened far above everyone's expectations in the first place, has stayed far stronger over land than anyone expected, and is about to reenter the Gulf over the loop current with little shear for the first 24-36 hours before it accelerates! It has a beautiful circulation, excellent outflow, even still has a distinct eye stillI Once the eye gets back over water, I mean, why would anyone celebrate it's "weakness"! It's not weak! This thing has been over land for a day, and it's STILL like a CAT 3! It's horrible to even imagine what it will be in 24 hours! The interaction with land might have even made the circulation cleaner and more prone to intensification--like Stan did, once it gets offshore. Yikes. I am really sorry for you in Florida, and even sorrier for those who are only preparing for a Cat 1 storm. Shear prevents pressure falling because the outflow stops, it doesn't weaken a storm until it has occurred long enough--which it won't have done. Be very prepared, please! If what we've seen with this storm over water in this general vicinity holds, it could strengthen to a 5 before shear begins. The shear might then only weaken it to a 4! Do not write this storm off because the NHC says a 1 or 2--when have they been right about the rate of intensification this storm or for that matter any other storm this year has done?

[x-y-no]

Miami NWS has this graphical storm threat presentation:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/ghls/hls_main.html

Nice and clear, I think.

[Talon402]

I agree that we should not write off the storm intensifying, but I definately do not think a cat 5 would develop. Cat 5 requires near perfect conditions. I think a weak Cat 3 or borderline 2/3 is more likely.

[DIDDLESBABE]

May I ask, where did the graph showing part of the eye already
exiting the Yucatin come from ??

Husband & I are in conflict over this and where TWC is showing
the eye to be - - of course, don't need conflict with him on a day
like today .....

Thanks for the info

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

[DESTRUCTION5]

I continue to find it amazing that the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin formed in October…

and that people think it has no chance of being more than a cat 1 at florida landfall...waaaaay too early IMHO for people to start celebrating

I know--I find it so bizarre. It strengthened far above everyone's expectations in the first place, has stayed far stronger over land than anyone expected, and is about to reenter the Gulf over the loop current with little shear for the first 24-36 hours before it accelerates! It has a beautiful circulation, excellent outflow, even still has a distinct eye stillI Once the eye gets back over water, I mean, why would anyone celebrate it's "weakness"! It's not weak! This thing has been over land for a day, and it's STILL like a CAT 3! It's horrible to even imagine what it will be in 24 hours! The interaction with land might have even made the circulation cleaner and more prone to intensification--like Stan did, once it gets offshore. Yikes. I am really sorry for you in Florida, and even sorrier for those who are only preparing for a Cat 1 storm. Shear prevents pressure falling because the outflow stops, it doesn't weaken a storm until it has occurred long enough--which it won't have done. Be very prepared, please! If what we've seen with this storm over water in this general vicinity holds, it could strengthen to a 5 before shear begins. The shear might then only weaken it to a 4! Do not write this storm off because the NHC says a 1 or 2--when have they been right about the rate of intensification this storm or for that matter any other storm this year has done?

LoL..Vafffie...Cat-4 5 days are done for wilma

[Weatherfreak14]

I say it sould only hit as a one or maybe a two

[calidoug]

May I ask, where did the graph showing part of the eye already
exiting the Yucatin come from ??

Husband & I are in conflict over this and where TWC is showing
the eye to be - - of course, don't need conflict with him on a day
like today .....

Thanks for the info

Don't use IR-- use Visible LOOP:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The eye is clearly NOT over water... yet. But it is drifting north, and looks like it will be over water in another 6-8 hours.[/img]

[Rainband]

Miami NWS has this graphical storm threat presentation:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/ghls/hls_main.html

Nice and clear, I think.

The news conference I just watched was much better. The National Hurricane Representative was very informative. They still are very uncertain about all aspects of this storm at this point. The most uncertainity lies with the catagory. They said SW and south florida will be under a high nado threat and that Central Florida will likely get TS winds and the most rain because thats where the front will be. Interesting fews days ahead.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

Ok... Got some questions. Right now we will get TS winds and heavy rain on current path ? But if models are shifting north threat would increase for us? But how can models shift north somewhat but trough be in florida. I am c onfused

Matt

[Scorpion]

May I ask, where did the graph showing part of the eye already
exiting the Yucatin come from ??

Husband & I are in conflict over this and where TWC is showing
the eye to be - - of course, don't need conflict with him on a day
like today .....

Thanks for the info

Don't use IR-- use Visible LOOP:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The eye is clearly NOT over water... yet. But it is drifting north, and looks like it will be over water in another 6-8 hours.[/img]

Probably more like 3 or 4 more hours over land.

[tampaflwx]

Graphics and video detailing how a major hurricane near Tampa bay could prove to be catastrophic

http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/worstcase.html

[artist]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

here is where I got that image click on the tipiof the Yucatan and it will bring it up close for you.

[jkt21787]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

Ok... Got some questions. Right now we will get TS winds and heavy rain on current path ? But if models are shifting north threat would increase for us? But how can models shift north somewhat but trough be in florida. I am c onfused

Matt

No models have shifted north. Only LBAR and BAMD remain near Tampa, and they are as useless as they come. The rest remain in Southern FL as they have for days.

The trough will save Tampa from anything more than TS winds and rain. The large windfield should bring a high chance of those conditions to your area still.

[chris_fit]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

Ok... Got some questions. Right now we will get TS winds and heavy rain on current path ? But if models are shifting north threat would increase for us? But how can models shift north somewhat but trough be in florida. I am c onfused

Matt

No models have shifted north. Only LBAR and 98E remain near Tampa, and they are as useless as they come. The rest remain in Southern FL as they have for days.

The trough will save Tampa from anything more than TS winds and rain. The large windfield should bring a high chance of those conditions to your area still.

I believe latest GFS run brings it north of Ft Myers

[chris_fit]

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks by the visible satitlite that it is strengthing. Or is it just me?

Anyone else can see that?

[Rainband]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

Ok... Got some questions. Right now we will get TS winds and heavy rain on current path ? But if models are shifting north threat would increase for us? But how can models shift north somewhat but trough be in florida. I am c onfused

Matt

No models have shifted north. Only LBAR and BAMD remain near Tampa, and they are as useless as they come. The rest remain in Southern FL as they have for days.

The trough will save Tampa from anything more than TS winds and rain. The large windfield should bring a high chance of those conditions to your area still.

Exactly. Where this makes landfall will be where the hurricane conditions are felt. The combination of the front and this storm is why the entire pennisula may feel TS force winds and torrential rain...especially in the vicinity of the front.