It's rather interesting to be in a tropical system while it is forming, and we kind of knew that yesterday. This year we've had a sampling of the energy which would later become Katrina and Rita. I've really gained a whole new respect for that (unproven?) element which confounds the models and forecasters, and seems to determine what will and what won't develop and persist into something strong. Perhaps it is a small but powerful clear air vortex at mid level, too small to show in any type of satellite view. Only coincidentally and rarely captured by a weather balloon, and then judged to be a malfunction. But I've every confidence there is some great seed of energy exisiting long before the standard criteria for a tropical low appears.
This no doubt makes me sound like some kind of nut
I've grown up with tornados, and got quite good at knowing which of identical conditions would produce tornados, and which would not. Today I can walk by a window, glance outside, see a cloud about to produce a funnel, calmly walk to get my camera, and be outside right on time for it to form and take it's picture.
Maybe I can just feel it naturally, as some people experience aches and pains which can't be correlated simply to barometeric pressure. Or, as was being discussed in another thread, the way animals seem to know in advance, there must be something which can be sensed. To me, the weather is living, breathing, with an ethereal element similar to a human personality - probably because, despite all our advances in technology, we can never fully predict it nor understand all the intricacies of its behavior.
