Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

It looks by the visible satitlite that it is strengthing. Or is it just me?

Anyone else can see that?

I can't tell... but it looks like the center is getting ready to move offshore. Without a clear eye it's hard to tell though.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It looks by the visible satitlite that it is strengthing. Or is it just me?

Anyone else can see that?

I can't tell... but it looks like the center is getting ready to move offshore. Without a clear eye it's hard to tell though.

Brent Why is there no Recon? Cause its over land?

[Raebie]

Looks like it to me.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye knew this thread would break Katrina's "record" of 110 pages. Now the question is....

Can this thread go 200 pages????

Yes it will reach 200 as long as Wilma is around.

[jkt21787]

Interesting GFS run, not sure of its credibility however. It doesn't seem to be handling the trough well at all, which brings it more northward as a result. Still, the run is south of Tampa and that area wouldn't have more than Strong TS or barely hurricane conditions. Keep in mind the farther north it travels, the weaker it will be when landfalling. Cat 1 would be likely in that scenario.

[JtSmarts]

Looks like it to me.

I am so confused, I can't tell exactly where the eye is, it seems that it was located farther west earlier.

[Brent]

Brent Why is there no Recon? Cause its over land?

Yes.

[6SpeedTA95]

I am now prepared. I have arranged for staying at a higher elevated
location at 35 ft. above sea level if surge becomes a threat- just in case-
better safe than sorry.

I have my flashlights and batteries ready, and lots of extra food.

I am prepared even if this thing hits FLorida West Coast as a category 4(unlikely but hey- better safe and sorry).

Ok... Got some questions. Right now we will get TS winds and heavy rain on current path ? But if models are shifting north threat would increase for us? But how can models shift north somewhat but trough be in florida. I am c onfused

Matt

No models have shifted north. Only LBAR and BAMD remain near Tampa, and they are as useless as they come. The rest remain in Southern FL as they have for days.

The trough will save Tampa from anything more than TS winds and rain. The large windfield should bring a high chance of those conditions to your area still.

Your correct but the earlier she comes off the yuc the higher the chances are she'll go north.

[jkt21787]

Let me also say the inner core of Wilma has held together remarkably well. As the storm travels over the loop current, I am a bit concerned about intensity. Dennis, Katrina, and Rita exploded over the loop current region. Shear *should* keep this from taking place, but there is a very small, outside chance that it intensifies more than expected.

Making back to cat 3 seems a good bet however.

[Brent]

I am so confused, I can't tell exactly where the eye is, it seems that it was located farther west earlier.

Based on the 11am position... I believe it's in the darker blue on the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 87.0 360./ 1.9
6 21.2 87.2 300./ 2.6
12 21.6 87.2 16./ 3.7
18 22.1 87.1 2./ 5.0
24 22.6 87.0 19./ 4.9
30 23.2 86.4 45./ 8.0
36 24.0 85.5 46./11.2
42 24.8 84.3 56./13.6
48 26.1 82.6 53./20.0
54 27.7 80.4 54./25.5
60 29.9 77.7 52./32.3
66 32.7 74.7 47./38.5
72 36.4 71.6 40./44.8
78 39.8 68.6 41./40.9
84 42.6 66.5 37./31.9
90 44.8 65.2 31./23.7
96 46.4 64.1 35./18.4
102 47.5 62.3 58./15.7
108 47.9 59.9 79./17.0
114 48.3 57.7 82./15.2
120 48.2 54.6 90./20.7
126 48.1 51.5 92./20.2



12z GFDL.

[artist]

doesn't the gfs normally have problems with troughs? thought I had heard that before.

[Brent]

WOW... GFDL has it moving at 25 to 30 mph across Florida...

[JtSmarts]

I am so confused, I can't tell exactly where the eye is, it seems that it was located farther west earlier.

Based on the 11am position... I believe it's in the darker blue on the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan.

Thanks Brent.

[tampaflwx]

I am so confused, I can't tell exactly where the eye is, it seems that it was located farther west earlier.

Based on the 11am position... I believe it's in the darker blue on the extreme NE tip of the Yucatan.

That's just an inner band of strong winds/storms. the eye is slightly west of that.

[artist]

recon is on its way.

[Brent]

recon is on its way.

[chris_fit]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 87.0 360./ 1.9
6 21.2 87.2 300./ 2.6
12 21.6 87.2 16./ 3.7
18 22.1 87.1 2./ 5.0
24 22.6 87.0 19./ 4.9
30 23.2 86.4 45./ 8.0
36 24.0 85.5 46./11.2
42 24.8 84.3 56./13.6
48 26.1 82.6 53./20.0
54 27.7 80.4 54./25.5
60 29.9 77.7 52./32.3
66 32.7 74.7 47./38.5
72 36.4 71.6 40./44.8
78 39.8 68.6 41./40.9
84 42.6 66.5 37./31.9
90 44.8 65.2 31./23.7
96 46.4 64.1 35./18.4
102 47.5 62.3 58./15.7
108 47.9 59.9 79./17.0
114 48.3 57.7 82./15.2
120 48.2 54.6 90./20.7
126 48.1 51.5 92./20.2



12z GFDL.

Another slight northern shift.

[x-y-no]

12Z UKMET is even further south than the 0z:

24 hours:



48 hours:




Couple of things jump out at me ...

1) It completely failed to see TD25

2) Compared to 12Z soundings, it initialized the Atlantic mid-level ridge just a little bit weak - Tampa 500mb height was correct at 5840 meters, but Miami and Key West were initialized at 5840 and actually were 5850. That may have caused some amount of southward track error.

[Brent]

Another slight northern shift.

Sanibel to Sebastian Inlet.