Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[chris_fit]

You're right. After further review, that's an area of intensification I'm seeing, not the eye.

[Brent]

Not my favorite model at the moment ...

I can see why.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA STILL INLAND AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER YUCATAN...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER YUCATAN FOR 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST WEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS ERRATICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND
THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND... BUT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY ONCE WILMA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
WILMA... RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[thermos]

Wilma is still over land but the intensifying areas offshore could mean Wilma will quickly wrap-up and intensify once she hits the warm waters.

[chris_fit]

I also agree that once she gets off land she is going to undergo significant strengthening.

[gatorcane]

that trough is going to about 12 hours too late. By the time it gets here she should be back to a CAT 4.

[jkt21787]

that trough is going to about 12 hours too late. By the time it gets here she should be back to a CAT 4.

No its not. The trough is already here in Memphis, right on schedule. Not late at all.

[Brent]

Trough has cleared here too... MUCH MUCH cooler out.

[ronjon]

Who here would board up if they lived on the river in Ft Myers?

If I lived on the river in Ft Myers I'd make plans to leave. Storm surge likely to exeed 10 feet if storm comes in at your latitude or north.

[O Town]

Who here would board up if they lived on the river in Ft Myers?

I would definatley be putting up boards on my windows, they are saying you may get a direct impact of a possible cat 3. I think you better go get some plywood.

[Bgator]

that trough is going to about 12 hours too late. By the time it gets here she should be back to a CAT 4.

I beleive it will strengthen to a 3 again, but that all im saying a cat 4 is not TOTALLy out of question, its cat 2 now tho!

[jamima]

myersgirl I would wait till she moves off the yucatan before boarding up but thats just my opinion!! I live at the end of cape coral right by the gulf and we're waiting. Maybe just get the boards ready. We have shutters so it will only take about 1 hr to put up.

[WxGuy1]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html and click on the first image. The storm does appear to be slowly moving northeastward, but the key being SLOWLY. Current wind shear analysis from CIMSS of U-Wisc ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html ) shows 10-20kts shear off the norhtern shore of the Yucatan, though, admittently, the upper-level anticyclone is itself creating some shear over the periphery of the storm. Regardless, I don't think it's probable that Wilma will restrengthen to Cat 4. Just because Wilma was 882mb and Cat 5 a few days ago doesn't mean she has some special magic or something. The conditions in the southern Gulf are not anywhere near what they were in the Caribbean. Yes, she may restrengthen a bit, and the 6z GFDL does bring her back to Cat 3 near landfall. However, the increasing forward motion will lead to a highly asymmetric ground-relative wind distribution, with considerably stronger winds in the southern 1/2 of the storm and weaker winds in the northern 1/2.

[Myersgirl]

Thanks all, have the wood, just in a wait and see mode

[Canelaw99]

She's moved .2N and 0 W from the 8am advisory to the 2pm advisory....


Edited to reflect the 6 hour change instead....

[LarryWx]

12Z SAT ECMWF is near south tip of FL Mon. evening:

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 87.0 360./ 1.9
6 21.2 87.2 300./ 2.6
12 21.6 87.2 16./ 3.7
18 22.1 87.1 2./ 5.0
24 22.6 87.0 19./ 4.9
30 23.2 86.4 45./ 8.0
36 24.0 85.5 46./11.2
42 24.8 84.3 56./13.6
48 26.1 82.6 53./20.0
54 27.7 80.4 54./25.5
60 29.9 77.7 52./32.3
66 32.7 74.7 47./38.5
72 36.4 71.6 40./44.8
78 39.8 68.6 41./40.9
84 42.6 66.5 37./31.9
90 44.8 65.2 31./23.7
96 46.4 64.1 35./18.4
102 47.5 62.3 58./15.7
108 47.9 59.9 79./17.0
114 48.3 57.7 82./15.2
120 48.2 54.6 90./20.7
126 48.1 51.5 92./20.2

[tronbunny]

Who here would board up if they lived on the river in Ft Myers?

I would....
Even with the UKMET track, It won't be pretty there.
(with 'just' a cat 1 on any of the projected tracks, you could get hurt)

I'm south of Orlando, but don't see a need for boarding, at this time, here.

[Derek Ortt]

its going to weaken to a cat 1 almost certainly while over the Yucatan.Not sure why NHC kept it as a strong 2 when it emerges. May even weaken to a TS if it does not start moving. It will re-intensify quickly for the first 12-24 hours once it is back over the water.

this has very little chance of becoming a cat 4, not sure why some feel that this is a shoe in 4

[WindRunner]

I don't know why, I think that we will have/have had a borderline cat 3/4 by this time tomorrow. It's looking pretty good right now, and it's going to hit the water in about 6 hours and start strengthening almost immediately.