Huge North Shift in models!

[KissimmeeRoger]

Frankly I think you should give the guy a break. The GFS models have shifted some. I know people south of the model shift will argue that it is irrelevant, but one thing to note is the models appear to shift north when new data is input into the models and then during the odd model runs (6 and 18Z) they drift south. So we shall see.. The gist of this is, we all need to wait and watch.

Frankly I prefer seeing the models drift south, but then that effects everyone down south. However, gets this can have it. I had enough of dealing with chaos, power outtages, gas lines, and traffic. Hurricanes are an adreneline rush at first, but massive headaches there after. Can you imagine filing an insurance claim and getting anyones attention when the insurance companies are so far behind on Katrina and all of the others since then ? I am still waiting for my insurance company to pay the rest of my claim for Charley and that was 14 months ago.

Seems like a lot of people get upset when they hear someone mention a model shift, unless the model is shifting in their direction. If I want that kind of action, I prefer to watch it on tv and not live through it ever again.

Regarding the cold front, it is up in the pan handle at this moment and has yet to move further south. Depending upon the angle it comes in at and how far south it makes it is whether you are going to be directly impacted by the storm or just get the fringe effects.

[gatorcane]

yeah that front has stalled over the Panhandle, only drifting SE ever so slowly. It's meeting resistance as it's only mid October....

[TampaFl]

The only model that shifted is the GFS and it shifted like 30 miles, not HUGE at all! And models will coninue to change, if u look, models go south at night, and north during day!

Considering they've been very accurate I'll take it. Did you not look at the new GFDL?

And the trof will be near tampa tonight which means it cant go there! Just wait till the turn starts then if the model change u can scream!

At this time IMHO, I do not see the trof being near Tampa tonite. I keep hearing this trof is supposed to "dig" southward, but at this time I do not see it. The one over the upper Mid West is not digging, is it the one in California? Any help would greatly be appriciated.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/satellite/noaaport_loop.cgi?/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SYS/WV/

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 221810
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA AND THE END OF SUMMER ARE NOW ON THE WAY...
...ROUGH WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HAVE THE SWEATERS
READY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...WELL HERE WE GO. WILMA WAS SPINNING
SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN VERY NEAR CANCUN...
WEAKENED BUT STILL FORMIDABLE AS NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY THE STORM WAS
UNABLE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO CAMPECHE PROVINCE BUT RATHER HAS
REMAINED NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER TERRAIN...OF QUINTANA-ROO.

SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LIKELY
REGAIN CAT 3 STATUS FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND BEGINS THE ACCELERATION PROCESS.
THE ACCELERATION WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE
WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.

THERE IS GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING FOR A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE BAD NEWS IS THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHICH WOULD MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN A VERY IMPORTANT HAZARD: STORM SURGE.

ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...FOR AREAS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD TWO
HAZARD THREATS ARE REDUCED: STORM SURGE AND TORNADOES. IN FACT...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TIDES WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO...THE EVENT WILL LAST NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS...
PROBABLY 6 HOURS GIVEN THE RAPID ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
SUNCOAST...THOUGH QUICK...WILL BE QUITE WELCOME.

NOW THE BAD NEWS. FIRST...WILMA WILL LINK WITH A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES UP TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SO...FOR ALL
AREAS...EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE RANGING FROM LOOSE ITEMS BLOWN
AROUND AND TWIGS/LEAVES OFF TREES TO PERHAPS MODERATE (OR MORE)
DAMAGE LEVELS CLOSER TO THE STORM AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SHORELINES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. DETAILS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN A
LIKELY HURRICANE STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HOISTED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTLINE.

OTHER POTENTIALLY BAD NEWS IS THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...
WHICH IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE WITH
LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RUN
NOW BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA TO THE CHARLOTTE/SARASOTA COUNTY
LINE...ALL THE WHILE RACING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO BUY OFF ON A SINGLE MODEL RUN...THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS
FAILED YESTERDAY TO PICK UP ON THE PLAIN MOMENTUM OF THE STORM
TO CARRY IT ALONG THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN SHORELINE...ALONG WITH THE
GENERAL "LOOK" ON WATER VAPOR WHICH SHOWS THE MIDWESTERN U.S.
TROUGH ELONGATING TOWARD AN EAST-WEST POSITION NOW AND A CHANNEL THAT
SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO
THIS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND WORSE YET A TRUE "SURGE" OF WATER INTO LEE COUNTY
WOULD BE REALIZED. NOTE THAT THE SURGE WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A HIGHER HURRICANE CATEGORY GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE STORM AND
EXPANSION OF HIGH SEAS...COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION.

STAY TUNED AND REMAIN PREPARED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER: TONIGHT SHOULD BE NON-DESCRIPT. ENOUGH
DRY AIR REMAINS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LULL...SCATTERED AT
BEST. NOT BUYING OFF ON GFS MUCH-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST GIVEN THE DRY AIR THERE NOW...BUT WILL
THROW A BONE WITH A SCATTERED SHOWER GRID (RATHER THAN ISOLATED).
ON SUNDAY...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ACTIVATE MORE LEGITIMATELY
AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINES WITH 250 MB JET ENERGY TO CRANK
UP THE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR FOR A
SEPARATE FLOOD WATCH SEGMENT MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS QUICKLY GO DOWNHILL EVERYWHERE. WILL ROLL
THE TCM GRIDS BUT TRY TO IMPLY "SHIFTING" WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO COUNTIES JUST IN CASE THIS GFS SOLUTION BEGINS TO GAIN TRACTION.
WILL WORD AS "RAIN AND SQUALLS" IN THE ZONES WITH DEFINITE RAINS
IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z/MON TO 15Z MON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
NAIL DOWN A BETTER EVEN BETTER TIMING THIS TIME SUNDAY.

WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE CYCLONE WITH
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES AT ALL LEVELS. FROM SUMMER TO DECEMBER IN A DAY!


.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THIS PERIOD BEGINS...IN THEORY...
WITH WILMA OFF THE EAST FL COAST AND MOVING AWAY AS A FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY EARLY TUE. THIS FRONT
USHERS IN SOME CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING MAX/MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN WARMING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIP ENDS BY SUNRISE TUE WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL FRI AND SAT WHEN
AN APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE EAST RETURNS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL
PROVIDE ROBUST NW AND N WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY.


&&

.MARINE...PRETTY MUCH A NO-BRAINER WITH AN ACCELERATING HURRICANE
AND A COLD FRONT LINKING UP. RECENT COASTAL FORECAST GREATLY
ELEVATED THE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON SWELL...AND EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO HOLD AND PERHAPS BE MOVED UP A SMIDGE DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY WILMA GETS GOING. WILL ISSUE THE PRODUCT AROUND 2 PM
TO GET IT OUT...BUT EXPECT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND HURRICANE
WATCHES TO COVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 PM
TODAY. AFTER THE HURRICANE...THE COLD ADVECTION CRANKS IN EARNEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL SWITCH THE SWELL DIRECTION BUT
HOLD FAIRLY HIGH SEAS INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES INTO TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN.

&&


.AVIATION...SCATTERED BANDS OF RW...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM...
MOVING NORTH WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIG/VIS TO AOA 2000/3 DURING LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY...MONDAY WILL CARRY
VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES BUT HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE UP IN THE 45
TO 55 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN THE DAY THANKS TO COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 81 71 72 / 30 70 90 90
FMY 75 86 75 76 / 30 50 90 90
GIF 71 82 71 72 / 30 70 90 90
SRQ 73 83 73 75 / 30 50 90 90
BKV 69 79 66 69 / 40 70 90 90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

[gatorcane]

I can't remember the last time the first front of the season easily clears the FL peninsula.

Not going to happen, it may make it to North or North central FL but it will be tilted at an angle from SW to NE.

[gatorcane]

At this time IMHO, I do not see the trof being near Tampa tonite. I keep hearing this trof is supposed to "dig" southward, but at this time I do not see it. The one over the upper Mid West is not digging, is it the one in Californa? Any help would greatly be appriciated.

Supposedly a much strong one is coming in tomorrow but I don't see it coming yet. The one currently over the northern GOM doesn't appear it will make it much farther Southeastward.

[LanceW]

[quote="Rainband"][/quote]

Damn Rainband, I hate when you use logic.. Sounds like Boca may be close, and I don't want that at all. (Not that Boca is a bad guy, just I live further north of the current track.)

[floridahurricaneguy]

I think its funny that some people who said no way near tampa the whole time, see some indications of possible north shift that there is no way that can happen. Personally I have though from the beginning of a landfall more in line between ft Myers and Sarasota. Deffinitely need to watch this as she is being tricky!

Matt

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hello all. "linkerweather" has given me permission to post this message on his behalf as he is obviously quite busy today and may not get much of a chance to post. When asked, "~so what do you think we'll be dealing with here in Tampa Bay?" -here are his comments about Wilma's future and the slight northern shift of the GFS:

To put it bluntly....we will have a tropical storm on monday.
But being on the north side of the ciruclation, surge will be limited to NE or East facing coastlines. Mainly, flood prone areas of PInellas county's east side and perhaps southern beaches near Boca Ciega bay. There has been a trend perhaps with the GFS for a more northern track but for my viewers it won't make much of a difference. With a tropical storm, gusts to hurricane force are possible. SO, minor damage is possible from wind. Mainly loose branches and lighter weight outdoor furniture, stuff like that.
It will be a fast event, maybe 6 hours of the worst weather. ----likely monday morning. Lingering rains and gusty winds will continue into the early hours tuesday when the front pushes all the way through.

Feel free to copy and paste this to the forum if you wish; I may not have too much time to post to often there today, and certainly tomorrow.

[dreadnought93]

but isnt there that one that's still father south

[jkt21787]

Hello all. "linkerweather" has given me permission to post this message on his behalf as he is obviously quite busy today and may not get much of a chance to post. When asked, "~so what do you think we'll be dealing with here in Tampa Bay?" -here are his comments about Wilma's future and the slight northern shift of the GFS:

To put it bluntly....we will have a tropical storm on monday.
But being on the north side of the ciruclation, surge will be limited to NE or East facing coastlines. Mainly, flood prone areas of PInellas county's east side and perhaps southern beaches near Boca Ciega bay. There has been a trend perhaps with the GFS for a more northern track but for my viewers it won't make much of a difference. With a tropical storm, gusts to hurricane force are possible. SO, minor damage is possible from wind. Mainly loose branches and lighter weight outdoor furniture, stuff like that.
It will be a fast event, maybe 6 hours of the worst weather. ----likely monday morning. Lingering rains and gusty winds will continue into the early hours tuesday when the front pushes all the way through.

Feel free to copy and paste this to the forum if you wish; I may not have too much time to post to often there today, and certainly tomorrow.

Wonderful post there. Agree 100%. Thanks linkerweather...

Not a direct hit Tampa, but a TS for all intents and purposes. Always believed that myself. What I denied was a direct hit on Tampa.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Yea, I deffinitely will just at least get TS conditions. Even with north shift I guess huge difference would be made. But couldnt it becoming extratropical make conditions worse for tampa or would get worse for more north. When do you think Tampa area will see TS watch or hurricane?

Matt

[caneman]

Josh helped make my point from 30 to 40 mph sustained to 60 or 70 and gusts to Hurricane force. Flooding in Madeira Beach St.PEte low lying areas etc... That is a huge enough shift to go from no damage to flooding, surge, sign , branches etc....I think I'm arguing with the same people that have hugged to GFDL aand UKMET that stalled the storm for 2 days to dropping it down below Cuba.

[linkerweather]

Josh helped make my point from 30 to 40 mph sustained to 60 or 70 and gusts to Hurricane force. Flooding in Madeira Beach St.PEte low lying areas etc... That is a huge enough shift to go from no damage to flooding, surge, sign , branches etc....I think I'm arguing with the same people that have hugged to GFDL aand UKMET that stalled the storm for 2 days to dropping it down below Cuba.

Just a quick clarification, my statement isn't so much based on a north shift in the track(that is part of it) but mainly from the expanse of the windfield as Wilma transitions to extratropical. This possibility was brought up on Wednesday evening but specific details were too difficult to pinpoint. I suppose we were hedging a bit by not hitting the local threat harder until yesterday. But, I would say that 40 to 60 sustained seemed reasonable for the Tampa Bay area even 2 to 3 days ago. IF, and this is a big IF, the track shifts as far north as say southern Sarasota county, it won't make too much of a difference for the immediate Bay area and here is why, with a farther north path, to me that would indicate that it was getting absorbed by the front earlier, that would be a weaker hurricane so even though the stronger winds may be closer to tampa bay, the core of the intense hurricane sustained winds will be a bit farther south. But, in reality we are splitting hairs here. I know there a differences when it comes to physics, but if the tampa bay area has sustained 65 with gusts to 80 or sustained 75 with gusts to 85 or 90, there won't be too much of a difference.

Right now, sustained around 50 to 60 seems reasonable especially from Tampa Bay southward and over some open areas.

[cape_escape]

First GFS has been most consistant and now takes Wilma into Sarasota. The GFDL has now shifted close between Port Charlotte and Ft. MYERS. And I throw out the UKMET because it has been far from accurate. I've consistantly stated I believe it will be between Sarsota and Ft. MYers.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Between Charlotte Harbor and Ft Myers would be ME! YUCK!!!!!

[Jevo]

Hey linker... just had a short convo with Daniel Noah up your way at Ruskin (NWS WCM)..... He is in line with the NHC, but for his forecast area he is not so much convinced or concerned of a landfall anywhere north of the Port Charlotte as he is with the interaction of the diving front and the storm interacting and possily expanding the windfield of TS winds to almost the entire pennisula.

To comment on the topic of this thread, the model shift was not huge, in fact to look at the last model analysis, there was not any dropsonde data and only 7 stations reporting into the global backgrounds.... Lets wait until later tonight or tomorrow when they can chuck a few sondes in there and the data should be in from the G-IV upper sampeling

PS throw out the BAMS, A98, and LBAR...... also the UKMET was very good about handeling the interaction with the YP.. may want to see if it comes in line with the GFS background models

::DISCLAIMER:: I know my spelling sucks and I dont proofread so sue me