Tropical Wave at Caribbean

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:13 pm

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Interesting that some models show something tryig to spin up east of the islands.

MODELS DO SPIN UP ANOTHER CIRCULATION EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE CAN BE PLACED IN THIS CENTER AT THIS
TIME...WAVE ACTIVITY IS MORE CERTAIN HOWEVER.

The above from the San Juan NWS Discussion.

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:16 pm

well it looks suspicious but for climatological reasons (e.g. we are so late into October now), I would have to say no.

JamesFromMaine2 · #3 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:well it looks suspicious but for climatological reasons (e.g. we are so late into October now), I would have to say no.

Like Alot of us have been saying this year has anything been following Climatology this season? I mean come on we have tropical storm ALPHA!! lol basicly as long as the waters are warm enough and theres little or no shear or dry air then I would say it has a good chance of developing! lol

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:33 pm

Climatology in 2005. :rarrow:

milwaukeebrian · #5 Postby **milwaukeebrian** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:34 pm

I expect it to develop (this is 2005, not an average season) if it gets to the central or western carribean. Models have suggested activity near where Wilma formed later next week.

#6 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:36 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:basicly as long as the waters are warm enough and theres little or no shear or dry air then I would say it has a good chance of developing! lol

LOL Isn't that the most basic formula for ANY tropical cyclone at any time of year? It could be February, but if the waters are >26C, theres little shear, and the air isn't too dry, you could have a cyclone form... It's just that those conditions don't really exist in the Atlantic in February...

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:36 pm

well that part of the Atlantic has been very unproductive this season despite the hyperactive season this year.

WindRunner · #8 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:45 pm

Just from looking at that sat pic, I'd say yes, but the shear charts ripped me apart for thinking that.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:45 pm

Certainly there is plenty of moistere in the deep tropical atlantic that can spin up something if the conditions are right.

#10 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Climatology in 2005.

How true!!!!

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:31 am

In a normal season already by late october you can slam the door on the CV season but being this 2005 season the way it has been we have to continue to watch those wimpy tropical waves such as the one now near 40w because you never know if they start to spin.Look how quickly Alpha was born from a tropical wave that was moving westward for days in the Atlantic.

ChaserUK · #12 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:42 am

boca_chris wrote:well it looks suspicious but for climatological reasons (e.g. we are so late into October now), I would have to say no.

I thought this season did not care for climatological reasoning!

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:12 am

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 32W/33W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ADDED BASED ON A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
WHICH HAS FORMED NEAR THE AXIS...A SATELLITE HOVMOELLER DIAGRAM
WHICH SHOWS A CONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAVING
MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST OCT 19...AND 700 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

Interesting 8 AM discussion about this wave.

WindRunner · #14 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:56 am

We could get 2 TDs out of this if conditions were right. There are definately two distinct areas of convection, and that one at about 41W even looks like it has a little band starting to form on its north side.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:03 am

WindRunner wrote:We could get 2 TDs out of this if conditions were right. There are definately two distinct areas of convection, and that one at about 41W even looks like it has a little band starting to form on its north side.

Agree with your take about it.It seems like the 2005 season will never end. :roll:

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:31 am

As I said with what is now ALPHA, in the Caribbean Sea it will have a shot at development.

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:32 am

cycloneye wrote:
WindRunner wrote:We could get 2 TDs out of this if conditions were right. There are definately two distinct areas of convection, and that one at about 41W even looks like it has a little band starting to form on its north side.

Agree with your take about it.It seems like the 2005 season will never end.

LOL... our local station's weather blog said last night it feels like we'll have tropical systems active at Christmas. :eek:

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:36 am

This year we may have the chance to put hurricane figures in the Christmas tree.

Alternatives:
- Hurricane Symbol
- Hurricane Warning Flag
- The little pieces left when the hurricane damaged your area.
- The water for the real christmas tree could be rain water collected from a hurricane.

And more! :lol:

#19 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:48 am

I wonder if it'll make it across? There's shear ahead of the system, but currently seems to be on the decrease. If it can make it all the way, possibly another system to watch near the islands?

WindRunner · #20 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:54 am

Here's a shear chart for this thread, as it appears it will play a large part in the possible development of this system.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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