Cat 5 Emily.

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

When exactly will the NHC look back at its records and make a decision about changing Emily from cat 4 to cat 5 intensity?

Will it take as long as Andrew?

[cjrciadt]

When exactly will the NHC look back at its records and make a decision about changing Emily from cat 4 to cat 5 intensity?

Will it take as long as Andrew?

Yes, I believe they will upgrade her, but that is for another time.

[WxGuy1]

Yes, I believe they will upgrade her, but that is for another time.

Can you show me some evidence? Station plots, etc?

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

I think recon found cat 5 winds but they decided not to use it for no apparent reason.

[senorpepr]

Recon reported cat 5 winds using a conversion from flight level. However, the forecaster chose not to upgrade to cat 5 intensity because the pressure was rising rapidly.

If they do upgrade Emily, it will be at the end of the season. Otherwise, the likelihood of an upgrade further down the road is very low.

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

thanks.

So basically it was category 5 but the forcaster choose to not classify it as cat 4 since it would not remain cat 5 for very long.

[Jim Cantore]

with all the Measurements point toward it I'd be suprised if they didnt upgrade it

[WxGuy1]

Recon reported cat 5 winds using a conversion from flight level. However, the forecaster chose not to upgrade to cat 5 intensity because the pressure was rising rapidly.

Was there also some question about whether the standard flight reduction was being realized? If memory serves me correctly, surface winds tend to be less than the standard reduction yields in cases where the pressure is rising. So, the 90% rule (assuming flight level is 700mb, which it would be for a storm like Emily) tends to 'overestimate' winds for weakening cyclones. This would be particularly true if convection was relatively weak in the eyewall. The 90% rule is more of a rule of thumb, and can be significantly in error in individual cyclones.

http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml --> "Eyewall Wind Profiles in Hurricanes Determined by GPS Dropwindsondes" by James L. Franklin, Michael L. Black, and Krystal Valde.

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

The plot thickens.

How the hell did Wilma have the lowest pressure ever but wind speeds were low (relatively speaking). Again noob here, but 190 mph has been recorded on much higher pressure. Did it have something to do with the dreaded pinhole eye?

[jkt21787]

The plot thickens.

How the hell did Wilma have the lowest pressure ever but wind speeds were low (relatively speaking). Again noob here, but 190 mph has been recorded on much higher pressure. Did it have something to do with the dreaded pinhole eye?

There is still a lot of mystery in wind/pressure relationships within hurricanes. In other words, we really don't know right now. More research will be needed, and Wilma will certainly be an excellent model.

BTW, storms will smaller cores and eyes (like Wilma) usually have higher wind speeds than storms with larger wind radii and larger eyes (like Rita and Katrina). Thickens the plot even more I guess you could say

[Brent]

thanks.

So basically it was category 5 but the forcaster choose to not classify it as cat 4 since it would not remain cat 5 for very long.

From the 5am discussion on July 17th:

AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF
THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE
CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She was strengthing at the time...The winds where 153 knots=cat5. Then the second pass through the eye a EWRC was going on. Data out of HRD shows 136 knots at the surface. Katrina did not even get shown that strong on it.

No quastion that Emily was a cat5 for a short time.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

A Category 5 with 929mb? Maybe this season's started to spoil me, but...

Also that would add to the one-up womanship this season.
Emily - 929mb
Katrina - 902mb
Rita - 897mb
Wilma - 882mb

I'm just gonna assume it stops at that. I'm tired, that's for sure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ethel had 981 millibars...In another one had pressures in the 940s...It has to with the grade in pressure.

[whereverwx]

Ethel was NEVER a cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

ether was never more than a 2

[superfly]

There have been plenty of cat 5's with pressure 920+

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/cat5.asp

[aerojad]

A Category 5 with 929mb? Maybe this season's started to spoil me, but...

Also that would add to the one-up womanship this season.
Emily - 929mb
Katrina - 902mb
Rita - 897mb
Wilma - 882mb

I'm just gonna assume it stops at that. I'm tired, that's for sure.

Well then... this season... wow.

[whereverwx]

The reanalysis for Hurricane Cleo of 1958 will be interesting. A category 5 at 948 MB is impossible.