Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[Nimbus]

957 Millibars looks like that may be the end of the weakening.
Wilma looks like she is close enough to the water to start intensifying again.
Both the visible and water vapor imagery show moisture being drawn back into the core from the eastern and northern side of her circulation.
The trough seems to have dropped as far south as Corpus but the dry air and shear are still being held off.
I think she has a shot at making it down into the 920's again.

[LAwxrgal]

Ok.

The pressure went DOWN with the eye getting MUCH bigger, that right there tells ya somethings up.

Not only that, but it did it OVER LAND.

It's like it did an ERC over land

Ewwww....wow, this girl continues to amaze...18 hours over land and she only drops 2 categories and maintains her structure...

[tampaflwx]

what's this about a 75 nm wide eye???

[wxwatcher91]

what's this about a 75 nm wide eye???

apparently it went through an ERC over land!

[deltadog03]

87kt in the SW quad...impressive

[tallywx]

It had no choice but to go through an "ERC" over land because the inner core circulation was over land while the outer circulation remained over water. That means the inner core was disrupted some by land friction and lack of latent heat release, while the outer core was able to maintain itself better over water. Thus, the outer core established itself more rigorously because it could, while the inner core has disintegrated.

This is exactly what happened to Isidore, except that Isidore was inland longer and farther inland, such that only the very outer core remained, as opposed to an "outer eyewall" as we have now.

What this all adds up to is that we're going to see a Frances-type system emerge from the Yucatan...one of category 2 strength with a massive center with very light winds inside. The big question is whether it can contract and strengthen. Frances did not. We'll see if Wilma can.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 222210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2153Z
B. 21 DEG 27 MIN N
87 DEG 01MIN W
C. 700 MB 2723 MA
D. 60 KT
E. 315 DEG 30 NM
F. 032 DEG 93 KT
G. 308 DEG 34 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 12 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3055 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.

New Vortex.Look how big the center is 60 nm.

[cycloneye]

Another vortex shortly.

[tracyswfla]

Another vortex shortly.

[inotherwords]

957 Millibars looks like that may be the end of the weakening.
Wilma looks like she is close enough to the water to start intensifying again.
Both the visible and water vapor imagery show moisture being drawn back into the core from the eastern and northern side of her circulation.
The trough seems to have dropped as far south as Corpus but the dry air and shear are still being held off.
I think she has a shot at making it down into the 920's again.

What's holding off the dry air and shear?

[brunota2003]

Another vortex shortly.

YAY!!!

[cycloneye]

916
URNT12 KNHC 222330
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2302Z
B. 21 DEG 31 MIN N
86 DEG 58 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2745 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 135 DEG 87 KT
G. 038 DEG 31 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3064 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C70
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z.




70 nm wide center.

[Lori]

Bump

[Stratosphere747]

URNT12 KNHC 230544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:28:40Z
B. 21 deg 49 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2759 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 072 deg 079 kt
G. 342 deg 030 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 05:20:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS RAGGED

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 231121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/11:06:30Z
B. 22 deg 20 min N
086 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2761 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 023 deg 068 kt
G. 315 deg 093 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 10 C/ 3044 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 32
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z
REMNENT INNER EYE 25% COVERAGE SSE OF FL CENTER.



Plane returns to base.

[cycloneye]

Vortex Message very shortly.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 231650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:34:30Z
B. 22 deg 54 min N
085 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2788 m
D. 65 kt
E. 45 deg 089 nm
F. 140 deg 080 kt
G. 045 deg 097 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 12 C/ 3041 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 15:35:30
INNER EYEWALL STILL DEVELOPING - OPEN WEST. OUTER EYEWALL IS CLOSED.

[cycloneye]

The inner eyewall is still developing.

[Brent]

91 kt SW quad...

[WindRunner]

They just found 91 kt flight-level winds in the SW eyewall. That's a little, well, strange.