NAPLES/FORT MYERS RESIDENTS GET OUT NOW!!!!

#1 Postby **Terry** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:38 pm

Kevin - there is only a 10 - 15 foot surge predicted, last I looked.

I respect you and your forecasting, but let's see some other info rather than the Wx Underground graphic.

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:39 pm

Relax...The waves are at sea. They are much lower when they reach shore.

jkt21787 · #3 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:40 pm

SW FL is one of the most surge susceptible areas of the entire US Coastline. Take it seriously...

jkt21787 · #4 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:40 pm

Scorpion wrote:Relax...The waves are at sea. They are much lower when they reach shore.

That is so wrong. As the water becomes shallower they build up even more. Thats the whole concept of surge.

wxmann_91 · #5 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:41 pm

I don't care what you guys think, the shelf is shallow enough to support such waves and surge, this indeed will be a major event.

I agree Kevin. God bless you and south Florida. I will be praying for you guys.

Now please stop bashing him. Even if it is somewhat overhyped the point is clear and all residents there should see it.

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:41 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Relax...The waves are at sea. They are much lower when they reach shore.

That is so wrong. As the water becomes shallower they build up even more. Thats the whole concept of surge.

Ok but not 35 ft waves on top of a 15 surge.

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:42 pm

Kevin, wow, you seem very concerned.

I agree with him that everybody along the coast should get out. DO NOT take this lightly.

GET OUT and be safe. Good luck :wink:

#8 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:43 pm

Yes, do temper your reaction, a bit, please.
It is very important, but at this hour, no one is going anywhere.
I did see the great map that Calculatedrisk posted in a response to Derek yesterday of storm surge impact... and yes, it doesn't look good.
I'd say you and your neighbors have a good 10 hours of daylight to make that small move to higher ground and sturdy shelter.
Don't have to run for the hills of Lake county, though.

found the graphic, from Wunderground:

jkt21787 · #9 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:43 pm

Scorpion wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Relax...The waves are at sea. They are much lower when they reach shore.

That is so wrong. As the water becomes shallower they build up even more. Thats the whole concept of surge.

Ok but not 35 ft waves on top of a 15 surge.

Whatever the waves are, 15' storm surge is devastating enough. Again, SW FL is one of the most surge prone areas of the country. My advice is to get out if at all possible.

ixocean · #10 Postby **ixocean** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:45 pm

Can any pros review the graphic Kevin has linked (via another thread here on S2K) and advise... Obviously in the realm of possibility, but how likely or unlikely?

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:46 pm

jkt21787 wrote:SW FL is one of the most surge susceptible areas of the entire US Coastline. Take it seriously...

Yeah... it's like a swamp.

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:46 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Relax...The waves are at sea. They are much lower when they reach shore.

That is so wrong. As the water becomes shallower they build up even more. Thats the whole concept of surge.

Ok but not 35 ft waves on top of a 15 surge.

Umm...that is what the NHC is predicting and that's what Wunderground bases their graphics on!

Well if that panned out it would be worse than Katrina.

bahamaswx · #13 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:47 pm

This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

It's a bad situation, but the original post was poorly thought out.

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:49 pm

bahamaswx wrote:This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

LOL

mtm4319 · #15 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:49 pm

bahamaswx wrote:This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

Yeah... I don't want to say this reaction is unwarranted, because it's certainly a dangerous situation, but Naples and Fort Myers are not going to be "wiped out" in all likelihood.

artist · #16 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:50 pm

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

from the NHC forecast

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR
APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE.
ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST.

from the NWS
be certain to keep an eye out on this everyone.

jkt21787 · #17 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:51 pm

bahamaswx wrote:This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

The night before Katrina hit I said that storm would be known for a massive surge. People called me ridiculous too saying the storm was weakening and there would be no "massive" surge" We know how that turned out.

We'll see how this one turns out as well. Let's hope for the best though.

boca · #18 Postby **boca** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:51 pm

Is that really possible we need a met before I call 911 for KevinCho.

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:51 pm

boca wrote:Is that really possible we need a met before I call 911 for KevinCho.

ROFL!

#20 Postby **NateFLA** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:52 pm

Take a deep breath... think about this for a minute.

The storm is still way way off in and is still in weak steering currents... for the short time being. There is no certainty about landfall, so it may not even be naples...

Also, there is no certainty that there will be 36 foot waves on top of 16 foot storm surge. Personally, I think the probability of that happening is so extraordinarily low that this thread should be looked at more as a "look at the computer system goof up."

If this were the true "set in stone" "its going to happen" case... the EOC in Naples would be frantically evacuating people RIGHT NOW.

Life will go on and this storm is not going to be the end of Naples. Just chill and take everything with careful consideration. By all means be safe, but don't be frantic.

NAPLES/FORT MYERS RESIDENTS GET OUT NOW!!!!

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