Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[calidoug]

The faster movement is also added to the winds in the right front quadrant, in this case anywhere to the south of the storm. In other words, a storm moving 20 mph with sustained winds of 100 could bring 120 winds.

Not so.

[curtadams]

It almost looks like a smaller eyewall trying to form, trying to wrap around from the north. If it is and it closes off, it means the new eye will be about half the size it was........now awaiting every friggin frame with great anticipation.........

It's just the remnants of the old inner eyewall. You can see how totally dominant the outer eyewall is on radar: http://www.southwx.net/cancun_radar.html Don't expect the inner wall to reform, and certainly not quickly.

[TampaFl]

Looking at the latest infared loop, it appears that Wilma is "pointing" NNE to NE (looks more eliptical). Could that be indicative of it moving more to the NE ie: making landfall a little further up the coast say around Sarasota? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

[tronbunny]

we expected nothing from charely either here in central florida...we were epxecting pretty much trop storm winds

Agreed... had no window coverings and swear I never will go without, again... but did expect to get 'strafed' by Charley, didn't have a proper clue of what that meant. Been here 25 years and saw nothing worse than Erin in 95.
But I'm also more educated now, than I was before Charley.
I don't think I'll be boarding up, unless I'm looking at the eyewall passing within 50 miles of the right front or 20 miles left side
Even the northernmost models don't put me there.
I'll wait until noon tomorrow to decide.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ok, now this is going to kill me... I can't help but to keep glancing at the satellite imagery and every wobble that seems more northerly than a solid NE direction is getting me all nervous! I hate the whole wobble discussions, but at this hour in the game, that is exactly what we are gonna be getting until about 10pm tomorrow night when the trajectory gets firmly established. Right now.... pins and needles that the NHC is correct this far out and the storm doesn't redirect at all. I can't help but think of how far off they were with nearly every other storm this year at this point in time out... not tremendously, but enough of a distance that I could be very concerned up here in tampa bay. -because at this point, if the direction were to shift at all, we have essentially run out of time to do much about it as far as evacuations if needed.
-and i know, all the people that don't live in tampa area are rolling their eyes that "we tb people" seem to feel teh gloom and doom on this one so bad.
I don't know why I do... but my pet turtles do too. They have NEVER taken to madly burrowing into their stones at the bottom of their aquarium and flipping their "furniture" (log) over and burrowing under that like they have been doing for the last 2 days. they are also totally pigging out. Something is up.

[gatorcane]

TreasureIslandGirl I agree the NHC has been off some from the black line they post (e.g. Katrina as it hit S. Florida) but Tampa Bay is and has always been in the cone.

If you are not ready at this point it is your fault.

[Toro694]

Well if turtles are a predictor, my kids turtle here in Bradenton is floating at the top of the water, begging for food. Quite normal for him.

[Canelaw99]

TreasureIslandGirl I agree the NHC has been off some from the black line they post (e.g. Katrina as it hit S. Florida) but Tampa Bay is and has always been in the cone.

If you are not ready at this point it is your fault.

This is true. They've been adamant about "if you're in the cone, you're at risk" this season.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am totally ready as I could be. My concern is more for all the folks around here that are clueless. Especially the elderly. My building alone has a lot of people in it that are dependent on oxygen and the electricity to keep those little machines going that "reload" their oxygen. We have nto been receiving any real warnings or advisories on what this may do to our area until about 8pm tonite when the news stations started nailing down some specifics on what to expect. -and that is based on a storm that hits naples/ft. myers -not anywhere closer.
But, by the same token, my being "ready" doesn't translate to wanting to deal with it at all. The aftermath of a storm really really sucks and can throw you into a financial nightmare. -throw me anyway. We both work jobs that we don't get paid for if we can't work. but the bills are still due. We also live on the beach, which even though our home will be fine, getting to and from it could be impossible if a storm hits here. so I am justifiably nervous at the repercussions.
what's worse is that right now I know I shouldn't be, based on the current NHC track. But some of the modeling has hinted at possible track divergence and that alone is making me very uneasy.
-and the turtles won't stop digging. amazing how loud that is from the other room. I even turned their light out to make them go to sleep, but they aren't. they are still digging madly. the little freaks.

[tronbunny]

TIgal,

You're prepared... that's the best you can do.
This state is ready.
Most of the resources for recovery are staged in Orlando.
Barring a Charley scenario (and even then we're more ready) I don't think the aftermath will be as devastating as anything we've seen in the past 18 months.
In big friendly letters, I type...
Don't Panic

It'll be quick, and we know what to do after.

[TampaFl]

TreasureIslandGirl I agree the NHC has been off some from the black line they post (e.g. Katrina as it hit S. Florida) but Tampa Bay is and has always been in the cone.

If you are not ready at this point it is your fault.

I am about as ready as I will ever be, except that I have not put up my hurricane panels. Will make that decision in the morning as we are under a tropical storm warning only. If Wilmas track shifts just 50 miles to the north of the expected landfall, well that changes alot here in the Tampa Bay area. Especially with the winds. Hurricane warnings are up to Long Boat Key, would they extend them northward if the track shifts 50 miles north???

Robert

[gpickett00]

Although those 105 weren't sustained(more like 85) that still caused a heck of alot of damage in a short time.

Those 105 certainly were sustained here in Oviedo (Northeast of Orlando) with higher gusts. 85 was more north and west of here (like west of I-4).

Wrong, you did not get 105 sustained winds. Damage reports of the area do not show that. Additionally there were no readings of SUSTAINED 105 winds. Most of Charleys damage in central Florida came from old trees falling on houses, not category 2 winds.

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg">

[Scorpion]

Convection wrapping around the center. Definitely making a run for Cat 3.

[floridahurricaneguy]

She looks so big and stretched out. The whole florida peninsula is about to get hammered.

Matt

[wxwatcher2]

Convection wrapping around the center. Definitely making a run for Cat 3.

Funny listening to all the Tampa folks. I remember just before Katrina hit New Orleans, there were people predicting and afraid of Katrina coming back to Tampa.
I think Wilma has more expensive tastes like Naples......and Marco Island.....what say you?

[gatorcane]

ouch Tampa that was cold, although I admit Ft. Myers/Naples is much more expensive than Tampa.

But so is Palm Beach/Boca Raton.

[tronbunny]

Although those 105 weren't sustained(more like 85) that still caused a heck of alot of damage in a short time.

Those 105 certainly were sustained here in Oviedo (Northeast of Orlando) with higher gusts. 85 was more north and west of here (like west of I-4).

Wrong, you did not get 105 sustained winds. Damage reports of the area do not show that. Additionally there were no readings of SUSTAINED 105 winds. Most of Charleys damage in central Florida came from old trees falling on houses, not category 2 winds.

I don't have the official report link here, but this is what I do have:
Statement at 9:07pm Fri 8/13/04

AT 850 PM...THE KISSIMMEE WIND SENSOR WAS DISABLED AFTER A GUST TO
75 MPH. AT 905 PM...ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GUSTED TO 105 MPH.

There were more than a few homes around here that lost roofs, not to trees falling on them, but from being lifted or peeled up off the house/rafters. I think that takes more than a gust.

NWUS52 KMLB 140210
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
08/13/2004 ORANGE FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL ARPT

[Bellarose]

Convection wrapping around the center. Definitely making a run for Cat 3.

Funny listening to all the Tampa folks. I remember just before Katrina hit New Orleans, there were people predicting and afraid of Katrina coming back to Tampa.
I think Wilma has more expensive tastes like Naples......and Marco Island.....what say you?

I say, (Mr. O'Reilly), that as a resident of Tampa, (which happens to be on the edge of the hurricane/TS warning) I am very concerned. Please do not mock us or use the "W" word lightly. I do not want it here. I would be more than happy with a TS on Monday.

Have a wonderful night.

Bella

[Scorpion]

I don't have the official report link here, but this is what I do have:
Statement at 9:07pm Fri 8/13/04

AT 850 PM...THE KISSIMMEE WIND SENSOR WAS DISABLED AFTER A GUST TO
75 MPH. AT 905 PM...ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GUSTED TO 105 MPH.

There were more than a few homes around here that lost roofs, not to trees falling on them, but from being lifted or peeled up off the house/rafters. I think that takes more than a gust.
[quote]NWUS52 KMLB 140210
LSRMLB

105 mph gust is much different than 105 mph sustained. 85 seems like a good estimate though.