Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We recon should be taken off at 1am est...We will find out if we got a cat3 or not.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hey now... the pinellas beaches ain't so shabby bub

haha

[Scorpion]

We recon should be taken off at 1am est...We will find out if we got a cat3 or not.

I doubt it will be a Cat 3 until the eye shrinks some and it rids itself of the Yucatan landmass.

[gatorcane]

Wilma is definitely getting her act together quickly again. Look at all of the reds now showing up on the infrared on both the north and south side of the center:

I was afraid the loop current and very little shear would allow this:

[floridahurricaneguy]

Convection wrapping around the center. Definitely making a run for Cat 3.

Funny listening to all the Tampa folks. I remember just before Katrina hit New Orleans, there were people predicting and afraid of Katrina coming back to Tampa.
I think Wilma has more expensive tastes like Naples......and Marco Island.....what say you?

So you saying tampa is poor? While Marco has a higher amount of exspensive places, there are some pretty exspensive areas in tampa. Kjnda mean comment:(

Matt

i would love to move to marco someday though:)

[NateFLA]

Convection wrapping around the center. Definitely making a run for Cat 3.

Funny listening to all the Tampa folks. I remember just before Katrina hit New Orleans, there were people predicting and afraid of Katrina coming back to Tampa.
I think Wilma has more expensive tastes like Naples......and Marco Island.....what say you?

Are you kidding? Tampa is more wealthy than Naples and Marco... sure it is saturated with a poorer overall populus, but if you want to talk about raw #s of wealthy, the canes would affect more here... so drop that idea. For example, south tampa has the Basham family, which owns Outback, Bonefish, Flemings, Carrabbas, and many others.... I assume you have heard of them. I reel at the fact that you think Tampa is "poor" ... please.


I think that Tampa people are often chastised for legitmately worrying. Tampa is a big huge bay-city that would be wiped the heck out in a big storm. Get off our back for worrying about a legit problem. Maybe this is the storm that will do it (I certainly expect it to go way south) but our day is coming, and one time we're all going to be right, and there is going to be alot of "foot in mouth"ing.

[THead]

Anyone notice the "line" goes right thru the center of Lake Okeechobee? What kind of effect would that have?

[WxGuy1]

105 mph gust is much different than 105 mph sustained. 85 seems like a good estimate though.

Most folks forget the the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on SUSTAINED winds, not wind gusts. For example, a recorded wind gust of 133mph does not mean that storm is a Cat 4 if the sustained winds are only 110mph.

Awaiting recon, though I'm not expecting to find much of a change, perhaps a few mb lower.

[CronkPSU]

We recon should be taken off at 1am est...We will find out if we got a cat3 or not.

I doubt it will be a Cat 3 until the eye shrinks some and it rids itself of the Yucatan landmass.

that is my thinking as well...sat's haven't looked like big intensification has taken place...yet

[CronkPSU]

Anyone notice the "line" goes right thru the center of Lake Okeechobee? What kind of effect would that have?

none at 25 mph

[gatorcane]

ummm, I know it's off the subject but Naples, Boca Raton, and Miami Beach have some of the most expensive real estate in the state by far

[TampaFl]

ouch Tampa that was cold, although I admit Ft. Myers/Naples is much more expensive than Tampa.

But so is Palm Beach/Boca Raton.

That was not me Boca, that was wxwatcher2 from Central FL (Tampa?):D

Robert

[gatorcane]

Wilma is definitely getting her act together quickly again. Look at all of the reds now showing up on the infrared on both the north and south side of the center:

I was afraid the loop current and very little shear would allow this:

[THead]

Wilma is definitely getting her act together quickly again. Look at all of the reds now showing up on the infrared on both the north and south side of the center:

I was afraid the loop current and very little shear would allow this:

Some weirdness goin on in that eye, almost looks like a face........ready for halloween!

[gatorcane]

yeah, it's an early treat for FL

[jkt21787]

Until that eye gets together a heck of a lot more, we won't see her go much higher. Anyone remember Frances? I sure am seeing flashbacks. People kept calling it to strengthen before landfalling to a major, but it never happened. It just looked sick, especially with the eye. The eye looks extremely ragged right now in Wilma too, and won't be conducive to much if any strengthening.

[TampaFl]

Boca, what are your thoughts on landfall? Still Fort Myers area? IMHO I agree Venice to Fort Myers. Wilma will have to make a fairly sharp turn if it is to go in as forecast (And that will probally chage in the next 24 hrs, though not much)

Robert

[markymark8]

Anybody know if recon is going in for the 2am update?

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.6 87.0 10./ 2.9
6 21.9 87.0 356./ 2.7
12 22.2 86.8 32./ 3.9
18 22.6 86.3 50./ 5.8
24 23.2 85.5 55./10.0
30 24.0 84.4 54./12.8
36 25.0 82.8 57./18.2
42 26.4 80.7 56./22.8
48 28.4 78.1 53./30.5
54 31.1 75.1 47./38.0
60 35.3 71.7 39./50.2
66 39.8 68.8 33./50.9
72 43.0 67.6 20./33.3
78 45.0 68.1 344./19.4
84 46.0 68.6 335./10.4
90 46.6 67.7 53./ 8.7
96 47.3 64.9 76./20.6
102 48.2 62.0 72./21.4
108 49.0 59.2 74./20.1

[gatorcane]

the problem is that every storm I've seen over the past couple of years has exploded in the area off SW FL where the loop current resides.

Ivan
Charley
Katrina
Rita

By contrast, storms haven't exploded as much as I would have expected in the Bahamas or the FL straits

Jeanne,
Frances,
Rita,
Katrina