Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#4201 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:02 am

Back on topic...

Did anyone notice the 0z gfdl is a little stronger and nuge southerly at florida landfall and angel of exit...

thoughts...

#4202 Postby **JPmia** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:07 am

Yes. I noticed that too! I would like to see it visually but the site is down at PSU.

#4203 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:09 am

JPmia wrote:Yes. I noticed that too! I would like to see it visually but the site is down at PSU.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_0z/ghmloop.html

#4204 Postby **hiflyer** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:11 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_24.gif

reflects that as well...more and more models now south of the NHC line.

aaarrrrgggghhhhhhh

#4205 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:14 am

ericinmia wrote:Back on topic...

Did anyone notice the 0z gfdl is a little stronger and nuge southerly at florida landfall and angel of exit...

thoughts...

Getting closer to doing a reverse path that Katrina took through Florida....

thermos · #4206 Postby **thermos** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:14 am

Looks impressive on the Cancun radar. Cancun is still getting pounded.
http://www.southwx.net/cancun_radar.html

floridahurricaneguy · #4207 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:23 am

I give up. Who knows where this thing will end up.

Matt

#4208 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:23 am

Ok, what is that little pinhole in the center of the eye that I see on the last frame, 6:15.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

#4209 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:34 am

There's alot of activity in her big eye. She is REALLY wanting a makeover badly it seems. I don't know if she's trying to firm up a new smaller eyewall, or what. The east side of the core is starting to get a pretty noticeable gap in the convection, west side not looking a whole lot better. Although the north and south still look pretty strong.

EDIT: Just saw an image on CBS 4 of the latest from Cancun radar, really looks like an inner eyewall is taking shape.

KissimmeeRoger · #4210 Postby **KissimmeeRoger** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:48 am

You are seeing a double eye wall as confirmed by RECON. The storm appears to be on track with the NHC Forecast. GFDL and CAN 00Z do not seem to be verifying yet, as they had the storm gaining more latitude initially. Seems to be taking the track of either the GFS or UKMET at this point Of course with a Double Eyewall its a little difficult to pinpoint. NOGAPS appears to be too slow with this storm at least on the 00Z.

#4211 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:55 am

ericinmia wrote:
JPmia wrote:Yes. I noticed that too! I would like to see it visually but the site is down at PSU.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_0z/ghmloop.html

God I hope that this does not verify. It would bring the southern eyewall over my house.

#4212 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:02 am

Ground_Zero_92 wrote:
ericinmia wrote:
JPmia wrote:Yes. I noticed that too! I would like to see it visually but the site is down at PSU.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_0z/ghmloop.html

God I hope that this does not verify. It would bring the southern eyewall over my house.

Not by any means saying its going to be as strong as Andrew, just saying the effects we're going to feel in Dade and Broward are going to be more than anything we've felt since Andrew. Especially if the eye tracks a bit north of us.

#4213 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:13 am

THead wrote: Not by any means saying its going to be as strong as Andrew, just saying the effects we're going to feel in Dade and Broward are going to be more than anything we've felt since Andrew. Especially if the eye tracks a bit north of us.

Yes, if the eye tracks that close to us, it's not going to be pretty down here.

T'Bonz · #4214 Postby **T'Bonz** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:23 am

Oh hell.

#4215 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:35 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230830
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...STILL NOT STRENGTHENING...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z....THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM... NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...22.1 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

#4216 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:37 am

Hurricane warnings extended northward.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

CHRISTY · #4217 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:51 am

looks like the track was shifted a bit to the south....

#4218 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:51 am

#4219 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:55 am

CHRISTY wrote:looks like the track was shifted a bit to the south....

Looks like it did a little bit:

#4220 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:55 am

CHRISTY wrote:looks like the track was shifted a bit to the south....

Just a bit, but yes it has.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Your seeing a double eyewall

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