Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[x-y-no]

Whats the 6Z GFS say?

It's further south than the 12Z. Landfall in the Naples area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_030l.gif

[tampastorm]

Local TV met said she has jogged East, I was thinking the exact opposite. for the most part Ne , maybe still a little more North then East though.

[jamima]

looking like she might go to the keys after all!

[tampastorm]

Also very dark cloud tops well north of the center.

[x-y-no]

Local TV met said she has jogged East, I was thinking the exact opposite. for the most part Ne , maybe still a little more North then East though.

Movement is NE.

A straight line extrapolation would bring it in around Port Charlotte, but it's hard to see how we wouldn't get a slight bend to the right as the trough progresses. Naples is looking real likely right now. Possibly as far right as Everglades City.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 231127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.8 86.8 35./ 1.9
6 22.1 86.5 47./ 4.5
12 22.5 85.8 60./ 7.4
18 23.2 84.8 55./10.7
24 23.7 83.7 64./12.3
30 24.7 82.1 59./16.8
36 25.9 80.2 57./20.6
42 27.6 77.9 53./27.8
48 30.3 75.2 46./35.6
54 34.3 72.0 38./47.8
60 38.8 68.6 37./52.6
66 42.4 65.8 37./41.8
72 44.8 64.6 28./25.8
78 46.5 64.2 11./17.4
84 47.5 64.3 357./ 9.9
90 47.5 63.7 91./ 3.9
96 47.5 61.7 90./13.7
102 47.4 57.8 92./25.9
108 48.3 52.8 80./34.6
114 49.8 51.9 33./16.4



6z GFDL.

[x-y-no]

36 25.9 80.2 57./20.6



6z GFDL.

That's downtown North Miami - 4 miles SSE of my house.

[wzrgirl1]

oh boy...it's going to be close to where I live

[DESTRUCTION5]

Signifigant Shift southward...In all Modeling puttin Miami in the mud..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[jpigott]

Wilma looks like a sick puppy. Don't think she will be anything more than a minimal cat 1 at landfall. i think her trip over the yucatan was just a little too long. Maybe she injested some of that cabo tekillya (I mean tequila)

[cycloneye]

503
WTNT34 KNHC 231155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT YET
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145
KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Scorpion]

Wilma looks like a sick puppy. Don't think she will be anything more than a minimal cat 1 at landfall. i think her trip over the yucatan was just a little too long. Maybe she injested some of that cabo tekillya (I mean tequila)

No, it actually looks better. It is reorganizing.

[cycloneye]

She is picking speed now moving NE at 8 mph per 7 AM CDT Advisorie.

[jpigott]

Hey Scorpion - i live in Palm Beach Gardens. What do you think - will our conditions be worse than what we saw with Frances and Jeanne

[jlauderdal]

Wilma looks like a sick puppy. Don't think she will be anything more than a minimal cat 1 at landfall. i think her trip over the yucatan was just a little too long. Maybe she injested some of that cabo tekillya (I mean tequila)

you wont be getting a job as a sat analyst anytime soon..

[Scorpion]

Hey Scorpion - i live in Palm Beach Gardens. What do you think - will our conditions be worse than what we saw with Frances and Jeanne

Not sure. If it is a strong 2 at landfall and moves north of us then I would bet on it. If it is weaker and moves south of us then we don't get much.

[jpigott]

maybe i'm wrong - but it looks as if over night Wilma has lost most of her convection east and south of the center while her northern side has strengthened. I'm thinking she is in the early stages of extratropical transition

[Scorpion]

maybe i'm wrong - but it looks as if over night Wilma has lost most of her convection east and south of the center while her northern side has strengthened. I'm thinking she is in the early stages of extratropical transition

No, to me it looks like its reforming its inner eyewall.

[wxwatcher91]

maybe i'm wrong - but it looks as if over night Wilma has lost most of her convection east and south of the center while her northern side has strengthened. I'm thinking she is in the early stages of extratropical transition

I think I'm going to go with your theory

[HURAKAN]

I knew that she wasn't going to intensify very quickly, if at all. Remember Emily in July? After she crossed the Yucatan Peninsula, it took her a lot of time to reorganize before starting to intensify. Wilma, picture speaking, looked good after leaving the YP, but internally she is hurt. Before any intensification can occur, the inner eyewall has to redevelop and the hurricane has to start shrinking the eye once again. Let see what happens.