Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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#4361 Postby skysummit » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:15 am

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#4362 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:15 am

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#4363 Postby gtsmith » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:17 am

Is it me or does it look like a lot of dry air inflow on the eatern side? The cloud tops are not as high as on the north and west side and starting to wrap around according to the GOES floater.

Oh and skysummit, that path goes right over my house!!
Last edited by gtsmith on Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4364 Postby scogor » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:19 am

Sure is...BTW, just announced that Sarasota County public schools are closed tomorrow. Off topic, I know, but our posters can spread the word...
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#4365 Postby skysummit » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:20 am

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#4366 Postby inotherwords » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:26 am

thermos wrote:They are just blaming the Scorpion because they think the Scorpion is wrong. Wilma's pressure has held and it looks impressive so it is not getting weaker.


Yeah, but you know what? It was always forecast to intensify one level after it left the Yucatan. Well, it hasn't. It's stayed pretty much constant so far. It was also forecast to start getting sheared as it gets closer to the FL coast. It's not close enough yet, so we can't really debate this but there's no reason to think it won't.
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#4367 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:26 am

She's not looking fabulously healthy this morning. Outflow does look pretty good though. Strong westerly shear should keep development in check.
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#4368 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:27 am

************************WARNING****************************

Posts being carefully watched in this thread. Check the attitudes at the curb!!
Last edited by Rainband on Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4369 Postby thermos » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:29 am

inotherwords wrote:
thermos wrote:They are just blaming the Scorpion because they think the Scorpion is wrong. Wilma's pressure has held and it looks impressive so it is not getting weaker.


Yeah, but you know what? It was always forecast to intensify one level after it left the Yucatan. Well, it hasn't. It's stayed pretty much constant so far. It was also forecast to start getting sheared as it gets closer to the FL coast. It's not close enough yet, so we can't really debate this but there's no reason to think it won't.


True. It may be stregthening some now -- it is tightening up some -- but then lose it again as it gets closer to the coast from the forecasted shear. But if Wilma is moving quickly she might not lose much of her punch.
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#4370 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:31 am

URNT12 KNHC 231121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/11:06:30Z
B. 22 deg 20 min N
086 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2761 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 023 deg 068 kt
G. 315 deg 093 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 10 C/ 3044 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 32
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z



dunno if that was posted yet, but there it is...65 mile wide eye :eek:
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#4371 Postby skysummit » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:34 am

Heavy rains still over the Yucatan.

Image
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/3728/52bz.jpg
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#4372 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:35 am

She's not going to strengthen significantly with an eye that large.
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#4373 Postby storms in NC » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:37 am

thermos wrote:
inotherwords wrote:
thermos wrote:They are just blaming the Scorpion because they think the Scorpion is wrong. Wilma's pressure has held and it looks impressive so it is not getting weaker.


Yeah, but you know what? It was always forecast to intensify one level after it left the Yucatan. Well, it hasn't. It's stayed pretty much constant so far. It was also forecast to start getting sheared as it gets closer to the FL coast. It's not close enough yet, so we can't really debate this but there's no reason to think it won't.


True. It may be stregthening some now -- it is tightening up some -- but then lose it again as it gets closer to the coast from the forecasted shear. But if Wilma is moving quickly she might not lose much of her punch.



Thank you. I have been trying to tell everyone that if she comes in fast she will not lose her winds that fast when she does hit the shears. and she is really trying to tighen up here now. you will see late this afternoon
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#4374 Postby inotherwords » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:41 am

thermos wrote:
inotherwords wrote:
thermos wrote:They are just blaming the Scorpion because they think the Scorpion is wrong. Wilma's pressure has held and it looks impressive so it is not getting weaker.


Yeah, but you know what? It was always forecast to intensify one level after it left the Yucatan. Well, it hasn't. It's stayed pretty much constant so far. It was also forecast to start getting sheared as it gets closer to the FL coast. It's not close enough yet, so we can't really debate this but there's no reason to think it won't.


True. It may be stregthening some now -- it is tightening up some -- but then lose it again as it gets closer to the coast from the forecasted shear. But if Wilma is moving quickly she might not lose much of her punch.

Don't you think the NHC took speed into consideration? So if it didn't go up a category, and it's forecast to weaken a bit in the transition to landfall, then how would it hit as a Category 3? I just don't see it. Like Brent said, with an eye that big it's going to be hard for it to recover much strength from this point forward.
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#4375 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:43 am

Brent wrote:She's not going to strengthen significantly with an eye that large.



I could see her making an attempt at a 3 but I just dont see it getting to a 3 and staying there. Frankly she's got a long ways to go to get to a 3. As you said that eye needs to tighten up quite a bit.
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#4376 Postby storms in NC » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:49 am

Brent wrote:She's not going to strengthen significantly with an eye that large.


She has gone from 70 mile wide from last night to 65 this morning. Yes she is trying to tighen up. Will she do it? Who knows but her.But she has done good for being over so long. I still see a cat3 tonight
Last edited by storms in NC on Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4377 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:49 am

I don't think she will strengthen much if any. Eye is too large, shear is increasing, and her environment is becoming more baroclinic.

I think she will weaken some before making landfall.

Still she will do some destruction.
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#4378 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:50 am

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z SUN OCT 23 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE NEARBY ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF SAN
FELIPE TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 65 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#4379 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:50 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER WARM GULF WATERS...COULD
INTENSIFY TODAY OR TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE NEARBY ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF SAN
FELIPE TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES... 460 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA... OR ABOUT
340 MILES... 545 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES
AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#4380 Postby TampaFl » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:51 am

thermos wrote:Good morning. Why does the TWC look like a morning talk show? They are all sitting on a sofa. I can't tell what Wilma is doing this morning so I will go with strengthening but only because this is 2005. If this were any other season I would say Wilma is not strengthening.


Here, this was discussed yesterday.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77357&highlight=twc
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