Tropical Wave at Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#21 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:04 am

HURAKAN wrote:This year we may have the chance to put hurricane figures in the Christmas tree.

Alternatives:
- Hurricane Symbol
- Hurricane Warning Flag
- The little pieces left when the hurricane damaged your area.
- The water for the real christmas tree could be rain water collected from a hurricane.

And more! :lol:


:roflmao:
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38119
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#22 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:08 am

HURAKAN wrote:This year we may have the chance to put hurricane figures in the Christmas tree.

Alternatives:
- Hurricane Symbol
- Hurricane Warning Flag
- The little pieces left when the hurricane damaged your area.
- The water for the real christmas tree could be rain water collected from a hurricane.

And more! :lol:


:roflmao: :roflmao:
0 likes   
#neversummer

MiamiensisWx

#23 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:This year we may have the chance to put hurricane figures in the Christmas tree.

Alternatives:
- Hurricane Symbol
- Hurricane Warning Flag
- The little pieces left when the hurricane damaged your area.
- The water for the real christmas tree could be rain water collected from a hurricane.

And more! :lol:


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Generators for Christmas presents.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:57 am

Very good HURAKAN about bringing some needed humor. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

#25 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:06 am

cycloneye wrote:Climatology in 2005. :rarrow: :rarrow: :rarrow: :blowup:


SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.


From Forecaster Franklin, Emily Discussion # 8, July 12, 2005.

I'd say that statement still holds true.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:23 pm

Bump.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2005 7:36 am

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
WIND SHIFT FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO (AROUND
0600 UTC 10/23). SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP BUT LOW-LATITUDE CIRCULATION LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FARTHER SW NEAR THE ITCZ.

8 AM Discussion

Interesting wave.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

#28 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 7:52 am

Its possible that beta and even gamma can form in the next 2 weeks. I think it is very possible.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dr. Jonah Rainwater
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:45 pm
Location: Frisco, Texas
Contact:

#29 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:51 am

Even 2005 kinda sorta listens to climatology, lol.

I doubt they'll develop out in the eastern Atlantic this late in the season - if they do, they'll end up as fish. What's got me concerned is that this time of year, placing a strong tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean is like striking a match to gasoline. The fact that Africa is still pumping out the energy means that we might see the Caribbean pumping out storms on a fairly regular basis (not all like Wilma, I hope) well into November.

The Caribbean has already produced Stan, Wilma, and Alpha this October.
0 likes   

User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:

#30 Postby beachbum_al » Wed Oct 26, 2005 5:57 am

12 Days of Hurricane Season in to later December
(Sung to the tune of the 12 Days of Christmas)
Written by Shelley aka Beachbum_al

On the first day of Hurricane Season my true love brought for me
One hurricane tracking chart.

On the second week of hurricane season my true love brought for me two batttery power lights and a hurricane tracking chart.

On the third week of hurricane season my true love brought for me three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the fourth week of hurricane season my true love brought for me four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the fifth week of hurricane season my true love brought for me five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the sixth week of hurricane season my true love brought for me six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the seventh week of hurricane season my true love brought for me seven five gallons tank of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the eigth week of hurricane season my true love brought for me eight pages of fema papers to fill out, seven five gallons tanks of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the ninth week of hurricane season my true love cancel our vacation because nine tropical systems lined up in the Carribean and the Atlantic aimed straight for the Gulf Coast, eight pages of fema papers to fill out, seven gallons tanks of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power lights, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the tenth week of hurricane season my true love gave me ten pills of valium to calm the nerves, nine tropical systems lined up in the Carribean and the Atlantic aimed straight for the Gulf Coast to end our vacation, eight pages of fema papers to fill out, seven five gallons of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power light, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the eleveth week of hurricane season my true love gave to me eleven free trips to the north to get out of harms way, ten pills of valium to calm the nerves, nine tropical systems lined up in the Carribean and the Atlantic aimed straight for the Gulf Coast to end our vacation, eight pages of fema papers to fill out, seven five gallons of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power light, and one hurricane tracking chart.

On the twelvth week of hurricane season my true love gave me 12 hurricane decorations for our Christmas tree on top of the roof, eleven free trips to the north to get out of harms way, ten pills of valium to calm the nerves, nine tropical systems lined up in the Carribean and the Atlantic aimed straight for the Gulf Coast to end our vacation, eight pages of fema papers to fill out, seven five gallons of gas, six hurricane shutters, five coolers full of ice, four gallons of water, three cans of beans and weenies, two battery power light, and one hurricane tracking chart.

And the season continues.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#31 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:34 am

I posted this in another thread, but I think it is more appropriate to post it here.

There is currently a HUGE upper-level ridge in the central and eastern Atlantic, which is extremely unusual for this time of the year. If that ridge were in place in August or September (it was not generally the case), we would have seen several Cape Verde storms develop. It is amazing to see such favorable conditions setting up this late in the season. This is the same ridge that managed to provide the VERY favorable conditions for Wilma to bottom out into a historic hurricane. It has moved from the western Atlantic toward the eastern Atlantic over the past several days.

Right now, this wave is quite vigorous for this time of year, but upper-level conditions are very unfavorable for development. However, this large upper-level ridge NW of it, should provide a more favorable easterly flow as the wave moves westward. If it manages to hold on to its well-defined structure, we could very well be dealing with yet another developing system. I wouldn't bet anything just yet, since it would be a first for a system to develop that far into the Tropical Atlantic this late in the year, but the potential will be there as it moves west.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:03 am

Image

Agree Hyperstorm that it is amazing the word to describe this septemberlike pattern being now late october.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#33 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:06 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:well it looks suspicious but for climatological reasons (e.g. we are so late into October now), I would have to say no.


Like Alot of us have been saying this year has anything been following Climatology this season? I mean come on we have tropical storm ALPHA!! lol basicly as long as the waters are warm enough and theres little or no shear or dry air then I would say it has a good chance of developing! lol


All I have to say is this - is it before Nov. 30? Then yep, there's a chance it could develop. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#34 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:08 am

Canelaw99 wrote:All I have to say is this - is it before Nov. 30? Then yep, there's a chance it could develop. :wink:


If it's before December 20th, it has a chance of developing. There have been 3 after-season storms in the past 2 years.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:19 am



A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.


11:30 AM TWO


Wow they are starting to mention a system at the east atlantic in late october but it's 2005 so it's no surprise.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:02 pm

E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT
VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING. THIS
SHEAR IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE WAVE...4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W.



2 PM Discussion.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:

#37 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:21 pm

Any forecast about evolution of shear as the system will spread to the West ?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146243
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:31 pm

Image

Despite the shear just to it's north the convection looks good over and near the low around 9n.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:

#39 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:34 pm

Wow ... Is that very cold top clouds I'm seeing ?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38119
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#40 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:16 pm

5:30pm TWO:

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 1650 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pepecool20, Tak5 and 103 guests