Tampa Thread:Pasco,Pinellas,Hillsborough, Manatee
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
wxwatcher2
- Category 1
- Posts: 282
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:51 pm
- Location: Central Florida
FXUS62 KTBW 231327
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...HERE WE GO...
.DISCUSSION...WILMA IS NOW ON THE MOVE. AND THE GOOD NEWS IS SHE'S
ON A BEELINE TOWARD CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...BUT THE TRACK WILL
PROBABLY "TIP" A LITTLE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE STORM RUNS INTO THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SHOWED MOVEMENT AT 050/8 KNOTS...BUT NHC WILL LIKELY HAVE
A MORE ACCURATE UPDATE IN AN HOUR OR SO.
IN ANY CASE...THE GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE WINDOW OF
UGLINESS (WIND AND RAIN) WILL BE FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM...FOLLOWED BY
RAPID IMPROVMENT THEREAFTER. WILL ONCE AGAIN REMOVE INCLEMENT
WEATHER FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE AS
BLUSTERY WINDS CONTINUE.
FOR TODAY...GFS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FROM TAMPA NORTHWARD IN VICINTY OF BEST
FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. KTBW SOUNDING AT 12Z LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE KEYW
SOUNDING THIS TIME YESTERDAY...LOADED UP WITH CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX
AND SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LACK OF HEATING DUE
TO THICK CANOPY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON
DEVELOPMENT...BUT DYNAMICS ARE INCREASING AND COULD OVERCOME THIS
WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF HEATING.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS
WILMA'S OUTER BANDS APPROACH AND HELICITY INCREASES. THE WINDOW
WILL BE GENERALLY PRIOR TO THE WORST OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS...
GENERALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL UPDATE THE DAILY
GRAPHICAL AND TROPICAL HAZARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST A LOW RISK...
AND EMPHASIZE A BIT MORE IN THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT.
WILL TWEAK ZONE FORECAST TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR SUBTLE CHANGES IN
PRECIPITATION TIMING. ALSO...EXPECT UPDATES TO THE WIND HAZARDS
IMPACT INFORMATION INCLUDED BY 11 AM.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING TO
20 KNOTS...WHILE NEARSHORE LOCATIONS ARE SLOWLY RISING BUT STILL
LIGHT. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY IN THE
FORECASTED 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND ANOTHER
LOCAL COASTAL OBSERVATION AT BRADENTON BEACH. CURRENT FORECAST
SEAS LOOK GOOD LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
SUBSIDING...BUT STILL CRANKED...AFTER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
PLAN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. OF COURSE...ANY SHIFT IN WARNING AREA
WILL BE QUICKLY UPDATED BY 11 AM.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH INCLUDING THE
SHORELINES OF SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND DESOTO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY NORTH
INCLUDING THE SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES.
INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...
HARDEE... HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING FOR NO COASTAL AND NON TIDAL MANATEE...
HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER...POLK...AND LEVY
COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
&&
$$
88/GOLDSMITH
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...HERE WE GO...
.DISCUSSION...WILMA IS NOW ON THE MOVE. AND THE GOOD NEWS IS SHE'S
ON A BEELINE TOWARD CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...BUT THE TRACK WILL
PROBABLY "TIP" A LITTLE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE STORM RUNS INTO THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SHOWED MOVEMENT AT 050/8 KNOTS...BUT NHC WILL LIKELY HAVE
A MORE ACCURATE UPDATE IN AN HOUR OR SO.
IN ANY CASE...THE GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE WINDOW OF
UGLINESS (WIND AND RAIN) WILL BE FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM...FOLLOWED BY
RAPID IMPROVMENT THEREAFTER. WILL ONCE AGAIN REMOVE INCLEMENT
WEATHER FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE AS
BLUSTERY WINDS CONTINUE.
FOR TODAY...GFS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FROM TAMPA NORTHWARD IN VICINTY OF BEST
FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. KTBW SOUNDING AT 12Z LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE KEYW
SOUNDING THIS TIME YESTERDAY...LOADED UP WITH CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX
AND SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LACK OF HEATING DUE
TO THICK CANOPY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON
DEVELOPMENT...BUT DYNAMICS ARE INCREASING AND COULD OVERCOME THIS
WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF HEATING.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS
WILMA'S OUTER BANDS APPROACH AND HELICITY INCREASES. THE WINDOW
WILL BE GENERALLY PRIOR TO THE WORST OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS...
GENERALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL UPDATE THE DAILY
GRAPHICAL AND TROPICAL HAZARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST A LOW RISK...
AND EMPHASIZE A BIT MORE IN THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT.
WILL TWEAK ZONE FORECAST TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR SUBTLE CHANGES IN
PRECIPITATION TIMING. ALSO...EXPECT UPDATES TO THE WIND HAZARDS
IMPACT INFORMATION INCLUDED BY 11 AM.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING TO
20 KNOTS...WHILE NEARSHORE LOCATIONS ARE SLOWLY RISING BUT STILL
LIGHT. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY IN THE
FORECASTED 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND ANOTHER
LOCAL COASTAL OBSERVATION AT BRADENTON BEACH. CURRENT FORECAST
SEAS LOOK GOOD LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
SUBSIDING...BUT STILL CRANKED...AFTER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
PLAN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. OF COURSE...ANY SHIFT IN WARNING AREA
WILL BE QUICKLY UPDATED BY 11 AM.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH INCLUDING THE
SHORELINES OF SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND DESOTO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY NORTH
INCLUDING THE SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES.
INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...
HARDEE... HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING FOR NO COASTAL AND NON TIDAL MANATEE...
HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER...POLK...AND LEVY
COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
&&
$$
88/GOLDSMITH
0 likes
-
ladygatorslayer
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:29 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area
-
fox13weather
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 161
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm
An east to northeast track is being established. There is little chance of the storm wanting the buckle that movement and shift more to the northeast. Wilma may ultimately make landfall south of Marco Island. This will result in a six to eight hour burst of gusty winds throughout Tampa bay but not much more. We will be on the north side of the storm, there is NO chance for coastal flooding anywhere along the coast here. Ultimatley, this is not going to be that big of a deal.
0 likes
-
fox13weather
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 161
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm
-
fox13weather
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 161
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm
It is never over until it actually goes by.
However, how bad can it be?? It will make landfall we south of us. We will be on the weaker, north, side. The tropical storm force winds do extend a long way out from the center so the wind will certainly blow. At the end of the day, there will be twigs and branches all over the place but in the big scheme of things how bad will it be??? Not bad at all. It is rare, if not impossible, to have BIG issues when you are on the west, or in this case, the north side of a tropical cyclone. We will not be just north of landfall, but over 100 miles north of landfall!
However, how bad can it be?? It will make landfall we south of us. We will be on the weaker, north, side. The tropical storm force winds do extend a long way out from the center so the wind will certainly blow. At the end of the day, there will be twigs and branches all over the place but in the big scheme of things how bad will it be??? Not bad at all. It is rare, if not impossible, to have BIG issues when you are on the west, or in this case, the north side of a tropical cyclone. We will not be just north of landfall, but over 100 miles north of landfall!
0 likes
-
Toro694
-
Rainband
-
fox13weather
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 161
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm
It is great to be here. It has been a long and challenging week. The storm has not made it to Florida yet but the NHC has done another bang up job with this system. Everyone has wanted to push the track north towards Tampa Bay, but we have stuck to a FMY/Naples landfall for days. It looks like that will verify, if not a track south of that.
0 likes
Great to have you here and speaking to us. Much better than the 'Fox 13 weather' thread yesterday which was predicting that we'd have the worst conditions because of the cold front moving in. I didn't buy that at all, but it did make for some lively panicking (which is the norm around here).
0 likes
Hurricane Local Statement
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231830-
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...COR TO ADD SUMTER COUNTY IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TEXT...
...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA
WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.
...WIND IMPACTS...
NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE
LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY
NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.
...SURGE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM
SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS
WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS.
...FLOOD IMPACTS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HURRICANE WILMA WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA MOVE OVER
THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES.
AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE
PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES SOUTH OF
TAMPA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE IN
THE DEEPER TROPICAL AIR.
...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 2 PM
TODAY.
$$
EO
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231830-
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...COR TO ADD SUMTER COUNTY IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TEXT...
...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA
WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.
...WIND IMPACTS...
NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE
LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY
NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.
...SURGE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM
SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS
WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...AND HARBORS.
...FLOOD IMPACTS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HURRICANE WILMA WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE MONDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA MOVE OVER
THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES.
AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE MONDAY...AND ON THE
PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES SOUTH OF
TAMPA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE IN
THE DEEPER TROPICAL AIR.
...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 2 PM
TODAY.
$$
EO
0 likes
-
floridahurricaneguy
- Category 1
- Posts: 312
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:37 pm
- Location: Tampa,FL
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 220 guests