mpic wrote:Will the cold front coming down now stop Alpha from coming up into the gulf or will it follow pretty much the same path of Wilma. Is it too soon to tell?
Yes... Alpha isn't going to bother the U.S.
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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HurricaneGirl
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What has to be watched for is a delayed reaction of winds to the Loop Current/Gulf Stream crossing.
Wilma is tracking across the highest intensification track right now due to being south.
First the Loop Current, then the Gulf Stream west of the Keys. I would expect a delayed reaction and probable upsurge to category 3 before being levelled off by the shear along the front.
Jeb Bush just warned people in the Keys trying to ride it out: "This will be the worst of all the storms to recently hit the Keys."
(Is there some way to have a separate thread for annoying one-line responses and icons that only take up space?)
Wilma is tracking across the highest intensification track right now due to being south.
First the Loop Current, then the Gulf Stream west of the Keys. I would expect a delayed reaction and probable upsurge to category 3 before being levelled off by the shear along the front.
Jeb Bush just warned people in the Keys trying to ride it out: "This will be the worst of all the storms to recently hit the Keys."
(Is there some way to have a separate thread for annoying one-line responses and icons that only take up space?)
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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feederband
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Brent
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feederband wrote:Brent wrote:mpic wrote:Will the cold front coming down now stop Alpha from coming up into the gulf or will it follow pretty much the same path of Wilma. Is it too soon to tell?
Yes... Alpha isn't going to bother the U.S.
You forgot to add 16000 !!
WOW. I seriously need a life.
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feederband
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The 12Z GFDL zoomed in forecast positions for Monday using Google Earth:
Note that the first position is at 8 am Monday EDT, and the second is 2 pm Monday EDT. It would go right over West Palm Beach, and the center of the eye would at its closest be 50 miles from Miami and 30 miles from Fort Lauderdale, with those two cities being on the strongest side of the storm.
Note that the first position is at 8 am Monday EDT, and the second is 2 pm Monday EDT. It would go right over West Palm Beach, and the center of the eye would at its closest be 50 miles from Miami and 30 miles from Fort Lauderdale, with those two cities being on the strongest side of the storm.
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While were at it, any current graphics on GFS?
Last edited by Myersgirl on Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vaffie wrote:The 12Z GFDL zoomed in forecast positions for Monday using Google Earth:
Note that the first position is at 8 am Monday EDT, and the second is 2 pm Monday EDT. It would go right over West Palm Beach, and the center of the eye would at its closest be 50 miles from Miami and 30 miles from Fort Lauderdale, with those two cities being on the strongest side of the storm.
Do we have the current size of the eye? I am expecting the Metro areas will have some low to mid Cat 1 winds and higher in gusts on that track.
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Brent
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...CATEGORY TWO WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...COULD STRENGTHEN TODAY OR TONIGHT OVER WARM GULF WATERS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES... 390 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA... OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WIND GUSTS TO
64 MPH... 103 KM/HR... WERE REPORTED AT LA PALMA ON THE NORTHERN
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALSO...THE HAVANA CUBA METEOROLOGICAL
OFFICE RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 15 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES
AWAY.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...CATEGORY TWO WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...COULD STRENGTHEN TODAY OR TONIGHT OVER WARM GULF WATERS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES... 390 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA... OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WIND GUSTS TO
64 MPH... 103 KM/HR... WERE REPORTED AT LA PALMA ON THE NORTHERN
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALSO...THE HAVANA CUBA METEOROLOGICAL
OFFICE RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 15 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES
AWAY.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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#neversummer
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THead
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theworld wrote:ronibaida wrote:Look a the visible satellite, does it look like she is forming an eye?
Yes ronibida, the outerwall has contracted, NW convection has wrapped all the way around to NE to close her up, and her eye is clearing out out ever so slowy.
Yeah, I think Wilma got a little greedy earlier and was trying to reform her pinhole eye, when she realized that wasn't gonna work, being the resourceful "lady" she is, decided to go with her outer eyewall, and do a makeover on that. Looks like she's pulling it together a bit. Interesting comment earlier about a delayed windspeed reaction. Definitely a very realistic shot at 115-120mph at landfall. The path does appear further south than expected, and if you extrap the path right now, Key West is going to be hanging out in a real stiff breeze, and in store for some storm surge, both of which I'm not so sure they are prepared for.
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