MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211820Z - 212015Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
   SERN GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT
   APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW
   LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM S CNTRL GA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC. BOUNDARY
   LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL
   FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE WEAK. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL
   FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH AL SHOULD PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
   DESTABILIZES. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT
   IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL.
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
   WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL
   CLUSTERS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...
   
   34117942 33387986 32658030 32258111 33098232 34528037

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL AND NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211856Z - 212100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
   THETA-E AND CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   FROM ERN TN SSWWD TROUGH NERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 60S...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD WITH TIME.
   HOWEVER...FORCING DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE
   SEGMENTS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   OVERALL THREAT AND PARTICULARLY THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   36298301 35248442 34358496 33958545 34218604 34958557
   35988516 36428462

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 220036Z - 220230Z
   
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SUGGESTS
   THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
   THIS REGION.  UPCOMING 01Z OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK
   ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WW ISSUANCE STILL APPEARS UNNECESSARY AT
   THIS POINT.
   
   DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM PER 22/00Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CAROLINAS.  RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE IN
   RESPONSE TO A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND
   ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH NOW ABOUT
   TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 
   
   WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FEATURE VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
   WITH HEIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
   JET/WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE MODELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS -- AND AT LEAST A
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
   INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   35917640 35267701 33787951 33288078 33478177 34438167
   35587988 35947831

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 220732Z - 220900Z
   
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROBESON COUNTY TO NERN NC AT CURRITUCK COUNTY.
   WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   06Z RUC SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
   EAST CENTRAL NC INDICATED THAT THE INHIBITION AND OBSERVED INVERSION
   LAYER BETWEEN 700-750 MB ON THE 00Z MOREHEAD CITY SOUNDING HAS
   WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO AID IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
   HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION AS
   OBSERVED AT 00Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING EWD ACROSS VA/NC AT THIS TIME COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WITH ISOLATED HAIL.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
   GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SEVERE
   STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  GIVEN
   THESE FACTORS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  ACTIVITY MAY POTENTIALLY
   CONTINUE THROUGH 11-12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST BY
   THAT TIME FRAME.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   35897731 35897672 35717649 35247693 34877787 34497863
   34337911 34527954 34987932 35207879

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221632Z - 221830Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
   PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A WEDGE/RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN VA
   SWWD TO ERN NC NEAR ROCKY MOUNT NC THEN SWWD TO JUST E OF CHARLOTTE.
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE SERN NC COAST NWWD TO JUST
   S OF GOLDSBORO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SERN NC
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT N OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC AND SERN VA...AND
   THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION NWD INTO THIS REGION WITH
   MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
   CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN
   WILMINGTON AND ROCKY MOUNT WHERE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. THE APPROACHING STRONG 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL
   RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   34447762 34547826 35107851 35967759 37177650 36327574
   35357572

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS NRN NH AND
   NWRN-CENTRAL ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 230913Z - 231145Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z AND
   CONTINUING FOR 2-4 HOURS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS MUCH
   OF NRN NH AND SPREADING INTO NWRN TO CENTRAL MAINE.
   
   VIGOROUS/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 18Z.  TRACK OF
   SURFACE LOW FROM THE CURRENT LOCATION JUST SOUTH OF MVY/ACK AT 08Z
   NEWD TO BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA BY 15Z WILL MAINTAIN AN ELY
   LLJ ACROSS MAINE INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  STRONG
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET
   COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ELY LLJ UP TO 50 KT WILL RESULT IN
   STRONG UPWARD MOTION FROM NRN NH TO NWRN-CENTRAL ME BY 12Z.  POINT
   FORECAST SOUNDING PER NAMKF ACROSS NERN NH AT 12Z SUGGESTED HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET...GIVEN
   SATURATED PROFILE WITH STRONG UVVS IN DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
   BETWEEN 500-560 MB.  THIS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE FOR
   THE AREA OF CONCERN AND ALSO INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL
   LAYER AROUND -2 C BETWEEN 700-850 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
   AGGREGATE EFFECT ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES.  GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE
   STORM SYSTEM...THIS ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2-3
   HOURS OVER ANY ONE AREA FROM NRN NH TO NWRN/CENTRAL ME.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918
   45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089
   43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS AND SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231859Z - 232100Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND
   SRN FL. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE OVER THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. A CONFERENCE
   CALL WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BEFORE 20Z TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY
   OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   THE INITIAL OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA ARE JUST
   W OF THE FL KEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS ON
   WILMA. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING THE WRN MOST KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS IN PROGRESS OVER SRN FL AND
   BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
   80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE AIDING
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG INDICATED ON THE 18Z KEY
   WEST SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
   DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE KEYS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT
   INCREASE IN PRESSURE FALLS. VWP FROM KEY WEST SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 160 M2/S2 AND 200 M2/S2 IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER
   BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEYS AND SRN FL AS WILMA CONTINUES
   NEWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...
   
   24618177 27058242 27088131 25638006

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836...
   
   VALID 232257Z - 240100Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.
   
   WILMA CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SWRN FL ATTM...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
   THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITHIN LOOSELY-DEFINED OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO
   SHOW ROTATION. ALONG WITH NNWWD-MOVING CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE FL
   KEYS...A CLUSTER OF WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS IS ALSO INDICATED FROM
   THE TAMPA AREA EWD INTO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES -- INVOF
   WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING W-E ACROSS THIS AREA.  THREE TORNADOES
   HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR -- ONE IN HARDEE COUNTY AND TWO
   IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...AND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION
   INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY
   EXISTS.
   
   EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL
   WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF WILMA CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN
   FL PENINSULA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...
   
   29048184 28038090 25217980 24258168 28178373

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836...
   
   VALID 240048Z - 240245Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF
   HURRICANE WILMA.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE
   HOUR...WHICH WILL COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.
   
   A MORE WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND HAS NOW SPREAD EWD INTO THE
   KEYS...WITH ROTATING STORMS NOW EVIDENT JUST OFF THE SWRN FL COAST.
   ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITHIN STORMS OCCURRING
   BETWEEN TBW AND MLB -- ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   
   EVENING EYW RAOB SHOWS VERY STRONG WIND FIELD...AND SUBSTANTIAL
   INSTABILITY OWING TO 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER.
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFYING WIND FIELD WITH THE
   APPROACH OF WILMA...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE WITH TIME
   ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA.  WITH SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG
   THE E COAST OF FL NOT IN A TORNADO WATCH ATTM...AND WITH THREAT
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NEW WW WILL BE
   ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
   
   29138070 27647993 25217980 24258168 28278306

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...
   
   VALID 240313Z - 240515Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL
   KEYS THROUGH 15Z.
   
   HURRICANE WILMA...CURRENTLY 170 MILES SW OF NAPLES FL PER 03Z NHC
   ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE A NEWD PATH TOWARD THE SWRN FL COAST DURING
   THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF
   HURRICANE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
   
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BASED ON AREA VAD
   WIND PROFILES. AT KEY WEST...0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 350 M2/S2
   BASED ON EXTREME RADAR BASED CELL MOTIONS OF 185/60-65KT.
   EMBEDDED...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WILL
   REMAIN A CONCERN AS BANDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF S-CENTRAL/SRN
   FL AND THE KEYS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   OTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WHERE STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA
   BAY. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG PERSIST ALONG THIS
   AXIS...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN BREVARD COUNTY. BULK OF CG LIGHTNING
   HAS BEEN WITH CELL MOVING NEWD OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ALSO WITH
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER LAKE COUNTY AT 0310Z. CENTRAL FL STORMS
   WILL LIKELY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...AS THEY TRACK SLOWLY NNEWD. THIS INCLUDES AN ENHANCED
   RISK OF TORNADOES WITH PERSISTENT LAKE COUNTY SUPERCELL DURING NEXT
   HOUR OR SO. INCREASED INTERACTION BETWEEN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WITH
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
   
   24158134 26328234 28238300 28828177 29068107 28548034
   25907942 25237924 24608005 24148128

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...
   
   VALID 240828Z - 241015Z
   
   CORRECTED LAT/LON POINTS
   
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE
   FL KEYS.
   
   07Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED NE-SW
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO SARASOTA
   COUNTY.  DESPITE A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/
   ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH /250-300 M2/S2/ WITH
   THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE WILMA IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.  THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON
   REGIONAL RADARS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS
   ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL.  STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A MORE
   DEVIANT MOTION /160-190 DEGREES/ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION.
   
   LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH
   ANY EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS AS WILMA
   APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...
   
   28398315 28668253 29298125 29388100 29168068 25567938
   24628034 24208144 24538216 25888216

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...
   
   VALID 241216Z - 241345Z
   
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH 15Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN
   FL INCLUDING THE KEYS. IF CURRENT TRACK/TRENDS OF WILMA CONTINUE...
   CENTER WILL BE OFFSHORE AT 15Z AND NEW WW WOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   AT 12Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA
   LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN COLLIER COUNTY WITH CURRENT ENE MOVEMENT
   PLACING THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
   COUNTIES BY 15Z.  GIVEN THIS TRACK AND LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH WILMA...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
   SRN AND SERN FL.  FARTHER N...THE STALLED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO THE S DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AND
   NOW EXTENDED FROM VOLUSIA TO CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.  EMBEDDED STORMS
   WITHIN OUTER HURRICANE BANDS THAT INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
   HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
   
   26658238 27268208 28428170 28948156 28988148 29218082
   25297928 24388097 24268139

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...
   
   VALID 241457Z - 241600Z
   
   THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE E-CNTRL PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT HOUR.  GIVEN THE LIMITED
   SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR NE OF MLB
   WITHIN REGION OF ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY N OF WILMA EYE.  AS LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY
   EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN ORL AND MLB SWWD TO S OF FMY CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD TODAY...FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES WILL CONCURRENTLY BECOME DISPLACED FARTHER OFFSHORE.
   THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH
   AFOREMENTIONED STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...THIS THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY 16Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...
   
   28278088 28878082 28928032 28347960 27867984 27508013
   27538041 27688073 27968100

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/SWRN PA TO PORTIONS OF WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 251240Z - 251745Z
   
   ...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
   CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN LOWER
   ELEVATIONS...
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED
   OVER SRN WV. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN VA BY LATE AFTN...DEFORMATION
   ZONE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN WV...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
   SNOW RATES IN THIS ZONE. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
   COOLING /NOTED VIA COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN IR IMAGERY/ WILL FAVOR
   SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
   FEET THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
   HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS AT 1215Z EXTENDS FROM CKB/BFD/ELZ...BUT THE
   RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY ELEVATION CHANGES.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
   WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES VIA AGGREGATE EFFECTS.
   
   MODEL SOLNS DIFFER WITH THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
   WARMEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHILE THE RUC IS THE COLDEST.
   TREND OF THE 06Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER
   RUNS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
   TYPE TO RAIN AFTER 17-18Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 10/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   
   42287838 40357993 39088095 38238067 38707950 40047826
   41597767 42187751

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY / NRN VT / NRN NH / NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 251659Z - 252200Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
   LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS REGION.
   
   12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY IS LARGELY BEING
   DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP
   MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
   HAS BEEN MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
   WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN NH WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED.
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT PIVOTS NWD/NWWD AHEAD OF
   UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
   DEEPEN...WITH MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
   BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING.  THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DYNAMIC COOLING
   OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT FROM THE
   ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
   SNOW LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO DROP TO BELOW 1000 FT THIS EVENING WITH
   THE CONTINUANCE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND
   WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
   
   43537509 44597455 44897308 44957169 45667055 45926984
   45256984 44217086 43757171 43307293 43067477

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME / NRN NH / NRN VT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 252316Z - 260415Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HRLY RATES
   NEAR 1 INCH.
   
   BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN ME INTO ERN NH WILL
   CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID MEASUREMENTS ARE
   AVERAGING 0.10-0.15 IN/HR WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ROUGHLY 1 IN/HR
   SNOWFALL RATES. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
   FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 500 FEET...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST
   ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE OVER NWRN ME AS WELL AS NRN NH WHERE
   HIGHER TERRAIN EXISTS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
   44866997 44487064 44387220 44927232 45577064 46966996
   47526924 47336827 46736803 46076824

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271825Z - 272100Z
   
   BLEND OF MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER
   DISCUSSION AREA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG/BRIEFLY
   SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE.  WW NOT PLANNED ATTM BUT
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   18Z SFC DATA AND VIS CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MAIN FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT
   LINE FROM KENEDY/WILLACY COUNTIES NWWD TO NRN WEBB COUNTY.  COMBINED
   SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ESTIMATED FROM ERN DUVAL COUNTY SWD
   INTO NRN HIDALGO COUNTY AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
   LEAVING THOSE COUNTIES.  FRONT HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT N OVER
   WEBB COUNTY AND COT AREA...AND INTERSECTS OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE LINE
   OVER BROOKS COUNTY. 
   
   LARGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND N OF FRONT...BUT STRONGEST
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO ITS S.  NET RESULT IS
   MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO ROTATE BEING INVOF
   FRONTAL ZONE...ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N TOWARD SAT
   WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SLIGHTLY.  ELY/ENELY FLOW NEAR
   FRONT RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS MOVING
   SWD TOWARD WARMER AIR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT
   0-6 KM SHEAR.  WEAK WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE NOTED IN 850-700 MB
   LAYER OVER MUCH OF AREA.  PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL OFFSET MARGINAL
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY
   HORIZONTALLY NARROW BUT VERTICALLY THICK SLAB OF MODIFIED RETURN
   FLOW AIR SAMPLED IN 12Z BRO RAOB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   25959713 25949720 25949724 25889729 25839736 25859741
   25919754 26009764 26049790 26079818 26149838 26239851
   26259867 26359877 26389909 26499912 26569916 26719920
   26849928 26879933 27069946 27319950 27479948 27599951
   27679970 27809986 28160006 28290028 28520036 28690047
   28890060 29090067 29170078 29280082 29670134 29749915
   29439815 28189778 27159787 26989690 26389645 25959648

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN/E-CENTRAL CO...SWRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL
   OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NERN NM...EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292022Z - 292215Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 22Z...INVOF
   SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE FROM HARDING COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS WRN
   OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS.  MEANWHILE TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SWD ACROSS ERN
   CO.  ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  WW
   NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU AND TCU DEVELOPING ALONG AND
   BEHIND SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY
   CO...SWRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. DRY
   DOWNSLOPING IS EVIDENT AT SFC BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH IS BECOMING
   EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WITH UP TO ABOUT 20 DEG ZONAL ISODROSOTHERMAL
   GRADIENT. EXPECT MOST VIGOROUS/DEEPEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
   OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS ACTIVITY TO ITS W CROSSES IT.
   PEAK SFC HEATING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS YIELD ABOUT
   1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...BENEATH
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXCEED 9 DEG C/KM.  EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS SMALL -- GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT.  THEREFORE
   DOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THIS
   WILL RESTRICT DURATION OF DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AND...BY
   EXTENSION...LIMIT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIZE.
   
   COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM BETWEEN GLD-MCK SWWD TO KIOWA
   COUNTY THEN WNWWD TO BETWEEN COS-PUB.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH 0-3 KM SRH 200-250 J/KG
   BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS APPEARS TO
   CONTAIN SOME SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  HOWEVER...FRONT WILL REMAIN
   PROGRESSIVE...MOVING SWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ANTECEDENT
   CAA LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 200 J/KG.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   35820390 36690296 37530219 38070201 38290236 38210324
   38150427 38860416 39220378 39440222 39260144 38800061
   37840052 36670150 35770325

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND
   CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 310548Z - 310745Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS
   MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OK NEXT FEW
   HOURS. STRONGER STORMS OVER OK MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH SRN KS AND
   INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT WITHIN
   THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS
   THROUGH THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. INTENSIFYING NLY JET OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD
   SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN
   THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE
   THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW.
   
   FARTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING MID
   LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OK WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   AND WARM ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
   TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN
   THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   34919615 34389815 35400065 36780155 38000020 37489829
   36689552

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311655Z - 311800Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ROOT INTO A
   DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED SOON.
   
   STORMS ALONG SRN END OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ARE BEGINNING TO
   INTERACT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL TX LATE
   THIS MORNING.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 60F SURFACE
   DEW POINTS...EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR.  12Z SOUNDINGS
   AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE/CAP LAYER AROUND 800
   MB WHICH WILL BE OVERCOME BY VERTICAL MOTION/COOLING NEAR 18Z. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT.  THUS...
   ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   ..EVANS.. 10/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   29229679 28979784 29259838 29979859 30979824 32099679
   32329555 31749494 30769495 29939566