Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[6SpeedTA95]

lol @ eye clearing out...people have been saying that since yesterday

IMHO, you may regret that.

Why? I never said it wouldn't clear out, i just think its funny when it is doing the same thing it has for the last 24 hrs lots of folks every damn IR/wv/visible update are like "the eye is clearing out" and it hasn't done it yet. Before landfall I would expect it to clear out, but until we get some real signs of clearing why keep tooting that horn?

[AZS]

[Solaris]

So the FL winds are almost equal to surface in this case, WILMA may already be a Cat3

[THead]

lol @ eye clearing out...people have been saying that since yesterday

IMHO, you may regret that.

Big eye did clear out quite a bit earlier, what's going on now? Who knows, but that last vis frame doesn't make me feel any better here.

[CronkPSU]

i don't understand how the windfield map can show so little winds to the north and then you see this where it look the northern quads are the healthiest

[CocoCreek]

Awesome pictures of major waterspout near Key West...very dark and ominous it was on MSNBC while they were chatting with Max Mayfield...

[CocoCreek]

Awesome pictures of major waterspout near Key West...very dark and ominous it was on MSNBC while they were chatting with Max Mayfield...

[theworld]

lol @ eye clearing out...people have been saying that since yesterday

IMHO, you may regret that.

Why? I never said it wouldn't clear out, i just think its funny when it is doing the same thing it has for the last 24 hrs lots of folks every damn IR/wv/visible update are like "the eye is clearing out" and it hasn't done it yet. Before landfall I would expect it to clear out, but until we get some real signs of clearing why keep tooting that horn?

Then state your opinions seperately, instead of at someone elses expense.

[THead]

So the FL winds are almost equal to surface in this case, WILMA may already be a Cat3

Max Mayfield just mentioned that in an interview on CBS 4, re FL almost equal to surface. Wasn't that also the case as it was nearing Cozumel?

[soonertwister]

Disclaimer: unoffical not supported by storm2k or the NHC blah,blah,blah,.
Intensity at landfall
Cat5=0%
Cat4=5%
Cat3=25%
Cat2=45%
Cat1=25%
TS=5%

I agree with the slim chance (slim only) of cat 4, but a healthy cat 3 is going to be more than many have prepared for. Hopefully she won't get there. It probably isn't going to happen; but like you, I sure don't think we can count it out. It wouldn't take too much intensification to put her in the middle of the cat 3 category.

I also think that there's more of a chance of weaker than cat 2 than for stronger than cat 2, so we disagree to some small degree.

[x-y-no]

I'm getting a bad feeling here ...

CBS4 just reported that they estimate only 5 to 7 percent of the residents of the keys have evacuated.

Just looked at Derek's forcast (see analysis forum) and he has a substantially further south track than NHC, and it looks like Wilma is intensifying. There could be a lot of people in a bad situation down there if a more southerly, more intense storm verifies.

[6SpeedTA95]

Disclaimer: unoffical not supported by storm2k or the NHC blah,blah,blah,.
Intensity at landfall
Cat5=0%
Cat4=5%
Cat3=25%
Cat2=45%
Cat1=25%
TS=5%

I agree with the slim chance (slim only) of cat 4, but a healthy cat 3 is going to be more than many have prepared for. Hopefully she won't get there. It probably isn't going to happen; but like you, I sure don't think we can count it out. It wouldn't take too much intensification to put her in the middle of the cat 3 category.

I also think that there's more of a chance of weaker than cat 2 than for stronger than cat 2, so we disagree to some small degree.

I just called a friend of mine told him he better make sure he's prepared. He was taking it pretty lightly yesterday. I think a 3 is possible at landfall. Wilma looks a lot better in terms of structure than she did early this morning. Shearing is an issue on the northern sides of the storm, but she continues to slowly get a little better organized.

on a sidenote my friends name is Shearer

[Ivanhater]

I'm getting a bad feeling here ...

CBS4 just reported that they estimate only 5 to 7 percent of the residents of the keys have evacuated.

Just looked at Derek's forcast (see analysis forum) and he has a substantially further south track than NHC, and it looks like Wilma is intensifying. There could be a lot of people in a bad situation down there if a more southerly, more intense storm verifies.

i agree, im not liking what i see on satellite

[Scorpion]

There are very little preparations here, and everyone is taking this lightly. I expect sustained Cat 1 winds here, with the possibility of Cat 2. Way worse than Frances/Jeanne. People who didnt board up are going to be sorry.

[THead]

Disclaimer: unoffical not supported by storm2k or the NHC blah,blah,blah,.
Intensity at landfall
Cat5=0%
Cat4=5%
Cat3=25%
Cat2=45%
Cat1=25%
TS=5%

I agree with the slim chance (slim only) of cat 4, but a healthy cat 3 is going to be more than many have prepared for. Hopefully she won't get there. It probably isn't going to happen; but like you, I sure don't think we can count it out. It wouldn't take too much intensification to put her in the middle of the cat 3 category.

I also think that there's more of a chance of weaker than cat 2 than for stronger than cat 2, so we disagree to some small degree.

I just called a friend of mine told him he better make sure he's prepared. He was taking it pretty lightly yesterday. I think a 3 is possible at landfall. Wilma looks a lot better in terms of structure than she did early this morning. Shearing is an issue on the northern sides of the storm, but she continues to slowly get a little better organized.

on a sidenote my friends name is Shearer

They call me TA shearer, or rice kooker......
THead........aka 5SpeedGT04.

Back to our show.......

[tampastorm]

Check out the cold front on the floater.

Earlier today it was stationary. Now it is a cold front again. If it pushes further south, Wilma will go south too I bet.

It would not surprise me if the eye went right over Key West

I doubt that far south, if you look at the forecast point it is just a tad north of it.

[inotherwords]

on a sidenote my friends name is Shearer

LOL! Tell him he's late, he needs to drive a little north and start jumping up and down into the air.

[cjrciadt]

great view of the front moving Wilma
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

[CronkPSU]

newest IR

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg">

Visible

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg">

[AZS]