Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[inotherwords]

Here in Venice it's pretty calm right now. The clouds are rolling in and are beautiful. I have a good view from my balcony. After I get the animals in off the porch, we'll probably go down to Englewood beach for awhile.

Really? You must be in far S. Venice. I'm 1 mile north of the island and we're getting plowed! I'd stay close to home as this is probably coming your way.

[WindRunner]

Any new satellite estimates?

5.0/5.0 as of 5 hours ago, new ones in 1-1.5 hrs.

[El Nino]

Hmmm she's really taking a S'ly route for the moment, according to KW large radar. Tornadoes warning has been discontinued ...

[truballer#1]

does anyone have a ir imagry befor she bombed to cat 5 or at cat 5?

[soonertwister]

Last satellite estimate supported 90 knot winds, but that was over 6 hours ago. A new one should be out soon, before the next advisory.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

For interpretation of the intensity estimate, see the link at the bottom of the page.

[tallywx]

Any new satellite estimates?

Here's a continuously updating Dvorak satellite intensity estimate graph (preliminary, mind you). Follow the green line...notice how she's down (up) to borderline 2/3 or thereabouts (wind speed on the right is in knots). Pretty much confirms the 105 mph recon. findings.

[thermos]

does anyone have a ir imagry befor she bombed to cat 5 or at cat 5?

here at cat 4 (before 5):
http://www.sciencenewsblog.com/cgi-bin/ ... og=1019051

[FlaNativeMom]

Thanks for the tips, Soonertwister & IOW. Feeling a little better now - oops, loud noises outside... not sure what that was, but sure not going out to check! Anxious for my husband & kids to get home. What I'm seeing on radar is making me very uncomfortable about them being on the roads right now. Going to be a long night...

[Sanibel]

Looks south towards the Keys on Key West long range radar...

[truballer#1]

does anyone have a ir imagry befor she bombed to cat 5 or at cat 5?

here at cat 4 (before 5):
http://www.sciencenewsblog.com/cgi-bin/ ... og=1019051

thanx a lot, man that was a lot of grey aroung that eye

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It was very very very likely it was a cat5. It just took time to get a measurement of that small wind field.

[wxman57]

I just did some rough math, and I mean rough my according to google earth and the current position during the last three frames I've come up with just over 17mph forwards speed. Can anyone confirm this?

I'm measuring on GARP and got 42nm movement of an inner squall band in 3 hours - 14 kts = 16 mph. Just in the last hour, the eye is visible on long-range radar.

I don't think it's going to reach Cat 3 before landfall. Eye looks very ragged and it's drawing in dry air from the northwest.

Besides, it looks like the NHC may have the intensity too high based upon latest recon. Take a look at the 1930Z analysis from today's HRD flights:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

Shows a max sustained wind of 80 kts (90 mph) in the NE quadrant but much lower winds in other quadrants. Note there are no hurricane-force winds in the NW quadrant, at least as of about 3 hours ago. Should come ashore as a borderline Cat 2 and then only a Cat 2 in the NE quadrant.

[inotherwords]

Our local TV station is airing America's Funniest Home Videos.

Amazing how lightly some people are taking this!

[El Nino]

Tornado warning to the SW of Melbourne !

[wxman57]

One thing regarding satellite/Dvorak intensity estimates. They may give too high a reading for a storm that lost its core over land, and also for one that is beginning to draw in dry air. Such hurricanes will not transfer their higher winds down to the surface as well as those with a deep convective core.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hrd wind maps shows that the northern quad doe's in fact have very little hurricane force winds. The southern quad has the winds in this storm...In the storm appears to be wraping deeper convection...So I would expect a lower pressure with slightly higher winds. But what do I know?

[El Nino]

It should really shift more to the NE to hit Naples. I'm more thinking about Keywest and a something really nasty for Miami too !

[truballer#1]

HOLY CRAP
new 2245 IR IMAGE

[jkt21787]

HOLY CRAP
new 2245 IR IMAGE

That is a doctored image.

[AZS]