Why is Accuweather's forecast different from the NHC?

[dolphinslady]

I noticed it last year with Frances and Jeanne and now they are doing it again. Here is their forecast path... http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... etype=move and here is the NHC's http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large . Accuweather is farther north...and it seems that they rarely follow NHC's exact guidance. Who do they think they are? LOL

Just wondering why. I am well aware that the actual track will change before landfall again and I understand noone can predict exactly where it will go. It just seems like the NHC is the most accurate, most often.

[Derek Ortt]

they're forecast is different because they're independent of NHC

[SkeetoBite]

AccuWeather, Inc. is an independent weather product and is NOT an official source of weather forecasts, advisories, watches or warnings. However, AccuWeather does publish the official watches warnings and advisories issued by the National Weather Service.

Be aware that the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center are the only official sources for severe weather and hurricane forecasts, data, advisories, watches and warnings.

Always Follow the guidance of your local emergency management officials as they pass along watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

Also, monitor your local media outlets as they too will pass along the official advisories, watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

[Cookiely]

In case your not aware the mods have made it pretty plain they don't want any more bashing of accuweather. Please let's leave it alone. My mother taught me if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all.

[southerngale]

In case your not aware the mods have made it pretty plain they don't want any more bashing of accuweather. Please let's leave it alone. My mother taught me if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all.

Thanks, I was just reading this thread. I believe it's been asked numerous times. You don't have to like Accuweather, but this isn't the place to bash them. There are people from there who post/read here too. Keep the bashing off the board. Some posts have been removed.

[gpickett00]

because accuweather is superior

[Derecho]

Keep the bashing off the board. Some posts have been removed.

1) Please define "bashing."

2) And I'm curious as to what's wrong with "bashing."

[inotherwords]

I wasn't aware of S2K's policy against criticizing Accuweather and am happy to abide by your policy now that I know about it.

I do have one final question for the moderators, though, if that's OK. Accuweather seems to have no qualms about criticizing and even bashing the NHC, and its track record vs. NHC leaves a lot to be desired, according to several pro mets who have done data comparisons. So I'm really wondering why it's not OK for the general public who is interested in meteorology to at least question Accuweather's credibility and motives. I'm not sure what is at stake here, whether it's a risk of a lawsuit or whatever, but it would be great to get a little more concrete reason why we can't or shouldn't question their methods and forecasts other than the fact that people from Accuweather might be posting here. If they truly believe in their forecasts and can back them up, then they should have no problem if S2K members have hard questions or even challenges for them about how they arrive at their conclusions.

Just IMO, of course, in the spirit of getting the best data possible to the general public.

[wxman57]

Private meteorological companies are not bound by any laws to issue the same forecast track as the NHC. Our forecasts are issued an hour earlier than the NHC times, so we never see their track before we issue ours. In most cases, the differences are minor. Besides, the exact track is only a small part of what private companies do. It's the timing and extent of the effects at a customer's location that really matters, as well as the early warning of a possible threat to a customer's assests.

[inotherwords]

Because this forum has a ban on political posts I can't respond in the way I'd like to, with the information I'd like to provide.

If anyone wants details, please email me.

Regardless, I do not believe it's in the best interest of the US public to stifle criticism of private weather services, but this is a private board and I understand there might be legal ramifications for the owners. So the subjects they green light or not is their decision, and I will abide by that.

[Budro999]

This is not bashing Accuweather, but it almost seems as if the forecast on their main website does change in turn with the NHC forecast. It does not change at the exact same time, but it does tend to move in tandem with NHC track changes. Having said that, Accuweather has many different meteorologists who issue several different forecasts. JB, Joe Lundberg, Henry Margusity, and others offer their own forecasts, and they are often different with respect to track and intensity. At some point, with all the different forecasts coming out of the business, someone is bound to end up right. On the other hand, the NHC has one forecast and adjusts it accordingly. Therefore, the NHC may get bashed because sometimes forecasts will be off, but accuweather can always claim that they had a good forecast because one of the forecasters in the company is bound to make a forecast that is close to being accurate.

[NC George]

Therefore, the NHC may get bashed because sometimes forecasts will be off, but accuweather can always claim that they had a good forecast because one of the forecasters in the company is bound to make a forecast that is close to being accurate.

I think this is the crux of the matter: If Accuweather put out the same forecast as the NHC at the same time, who would buy anything from them? If, however, they put out a slightly different forecast, and end up being correct, they can point to this particular instance and say, "We are better than the NHC, here's the proof." This method ignores all the other times they weren't correct.

The above anaylsis is from a purely business standpoint, and implies nothing about Accuweather in particular.

[Aslkahuna]

Given the fact that Accuweather is in the business of putting NWS and NHC OUT of business, I think it's a very bad idea to disallow criticism of Accuweather when such criticism is called for. There have been a number of recent decisions by the admin of this board that call into question my continued participation here.

Steve

[inotherwords]

Given the fact that Accuweather is in the business of putting NWS and NHC OUT of business, I think it's a very bad idea to disallow criticism of Accuweather when such criticism is called for. There have been a number of recent decisions by the admin of this board that call into question my continued participation here.

Steve

An objective article from the Palm Beach Post with more info on this subject:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/conte ... _0421.html