truballer#1 wrote:HOLY CRAP
new 2245 IR IMAGE
Yes, it looks like there's really a lot of shear in this one ... surely in the N'part

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wxman57 wrote:One thing regarding satellite/Dvorak intensity estimates. They may give too high a reading for a storm that lost its core over land, and also for one that is beginning to draw in dry air. Such hurricanes will not transfer their higher winds down to the surface as well as those with a deep convective core.
tallywx wrote:wxman57 wrote:One thing regarding satellite/Dvorak intensity estimates. They may give too high a reading for a storm that lost its core over land, and also for one that is beginning to draw in dry air. Such hurricanes will not transfer their higher winds down to the surface as well as those with a deep convective core.
That's what one would think. However, SFMR and Max Mayfield confirmed that surface winds were about 100% of flight level, if not a touch higher. That suggests unbelievably efficient transport of winds to the surface for such a system.
wxman57 wrote:tallywx wrote:wxman57 wrote:One thing regarding satellite/Dvorak intensity estimates. They may give too high a reading for a storm that lost its core over land, and also for one that is beginning to draw in dry air. Such hurricanes will not transfer their higher winds down to the surface as well as those with a deep convective core.
That's what one would think. However, SFMR and Max Mayfield confirmed that surface winds were about 100% of flight level, if not a touch higher. That suggests unbelievably efficient transport of winds to the surface for such a system.
The 5pm discussion mentioned peak FL winds 100 kts and a peak SFMR-measured surface wind of 87kts. That's about an 87% conversion from 700mb. But the good thing is that those peak winds are not wrapping all around the center. the AVERAGE winds around the hurricane are much lower than the 90 kts being carried.
Still, a hurricane with 75-95 mph winds in 3 quadrants is nothing to take lightly. When Katrina hit Miami, it was only a very very minimal Cat 1 with 75 mph winds in a quite small area. It still did over $2 billion in damage.
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