Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[truballer#1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

23:02 SHOT
very cold cloud tops now wrapping around the center and expanding in north quad big time

[feederband]

It looks like she is in a really hurry to get somewhere now..

[storms in NC]

I might be in NC but I have two kids and a brother and his family in Ft Myers. I havn't been on here alday to get a laugh. And there have been a few more trolls that have been around too. You know who you are Please let us get and read and try to think What is going on with the hurricane. keep safe All
Deb

[jkt21787]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

23:02 SHOT
very cold cloud tops now wrapping around the center and expanding in north quad big time

You SERIOUSLY need to stop directly copying other people's posts from other boards verbatim without attributing them to the source.

It already almost got you into trouble once with that IR image.

[Stratosphere747]

Key West Airport, FL 6:53 EDT Cloudy and Windy SE 31G43 29.49

[ALhurricane]

The problem with the dry air talk is that there is no apparent dry air entrainment into the system at this point.

As a matter of fact, the convection continues to increase around the center which certainly helps the transfer of stronger winds to the surface.

The dry air is just to the west, the question is does the storm entrain any before landfall. In addition...the increased convection could be the result of Wilma coming under the influence of the right entrance region of an upper level jet to the north (very divergent.) Just a thought...

[Patrick99]

She's trying to make one last run at it. I love this stuff. I almost feel as though I'm watching a great fighter near the end of a long and distinguished career, digging deep for one last big effort. And this is *probably* the end of hurricane season, as far as US landfalls are concerned.

Don't kill me for saying so, but this is compelling drama.

[jpigott]

Key West Airport, FL 6:53 EDT Cloudy and Windy SE 31G43 29.49

is that knots or mph

[Brent]

Key West Airport, FL 6:53 EDT Cloudy and Windy SE 31G43 29.49

is that knots or mph

MPH.

[Stratosphere747]

Key West Airport, FL 6:53 EDT Cloudy and Windy SE 31G43 29.49

is that knots or mph

Sorry, mph....

[canetracker]

The eye looks pretty wide on this shot.

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.1 85.4 45./ 9.9
6 23.9 84.4 52./11.8
12 24.7 83.2 57./13.6
18 25.9 81.4 56./20.5
24 27.4 79.1 56./25.0
30 29.5 76.2 54./33.2
36 32.8 72.7 46./44.5
42 37.2 69.2 39./51.8
48 41.2 65.6 42./49.5
54 43.8 62.6 49./34.2
60 46.1 61.4 28./24.3
66 48.2 61.1 8./20.9
72 49.8 61.6 343./16.5
78 50.0 62.6 278./ 6.9
84 49.7 62.6 165./ 2.9
90 49.2 61.4 109./ 8.8
96 49.4 59.8 85./ 9.9
102 50.3 56.1 76./25.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.1 85.4 45./ 9.9
6 23.9 84.4 52./11.8
12 24.7 83.2 57./13.6
18 25.9 81.4 56./20.5
24 27.4 79.1 56./25.0
30 29.5 76.2 54./33.2
36 32.8 72.7 46./44.5
42 37.2 69.2 39./51.8
48 41.2 65.6 42./49.5
54 43.8 62.6 49./34.2
60 46.1 61.4 28./24.3
66 48.2 61.1 8./20.9
72 49.8 61.6 343./16.5
78 50.0 62.6 278./ 6.9
84 49.7 62.6 165./ 2.9
90 49.2 61.4 109./ 8.8
96 49.4 59.8 85./ 9.9
102 50.3 56.1 76./25.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Moving thru much slower~!

[THead]

One thing regarding satellite/Dvorak intensity estimates. They may give too high a reading for a storm that lost its core over land, and also for one that is beginning to draw in dry air. Such hurricanes will not transfer their higher winds down to the surface as well as those with a deep convective core.

Thats strange cause Max Mayfield was saying a couple hours ago during an interview with bryan norcross that the FL winds and surface level were almost identical in Wilma from recon.

EDIT: Nevermind, I see this was already addressed

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0000Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE
SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
IN HAVANA CUBA... AND A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY
TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... AND THESE WINDS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY MIDNIGHT... AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE MIDDLE KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[JtSmarts]

110 Mph 958 Mb according to the TWC.

[Brent]

110 mph, 958 mb at 8pm and STEWART is on duty.

[Ivanhater]

holy crap folks, were about to have a cat 3 on our hands...we all know the type of damage a cat 3 can do , ivan , katrina and so on

[Brent]

holy crap folks, were about to have a cat 3 on our hands...we all know the type of damage a cat 3 can do , ivan , katrina and so on

...and both of those were weakening at landfall, looks like this one will be strengthening which makes it worse.

[markymark8]

110 Mph 958 Mb according to the TWC.

YEPP!!! She is almost a 3 and still has a little bit a window to get er done.