Wilma appears to be strengthening as she nears Florida

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Wilma appears to be strengthening as she nears Florida

#1 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:10 pm

That IR Satellite loop looks like it is getting worse.

I sure hope people took this storm seriously. We all saw how quickly it went from a mere tropical depression to the strongest Cat 5 on record.
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#2 Postby BReb » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:13 pm

She's entering cooler waters, though:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5295go.jpg

Btw- where's the much hyped shear?
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#3 Postby NCHurricane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:13 pm

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#4 Postby markymark8 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:19 pm

80 dgres sea surfuce can support a cat 3 it wont matter
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#5 Postby dhweather » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:22 pm

It's getting better organized. I expected her to be a borderline 2/3 at landfall - she's got a strong history and isn't giving up easily.
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#6 Postby dhweather » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:22 pm

It's getting better organized. I expected her to be a borderline 2/3 at landfall - she's got a strong history and isn't giving up easily.
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#7 Postby StormWarning1 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:22 pm

Heat potential is not going to be an issue with a storm moving at 15+ MPH.
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#8 Postby wxwonder12 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:25 pm

Local mets in Palm Beach are saying whatever it comes in as on the West coast it will leave as on this East coast. Sound somewhat accurate. They say it will be moving so fast it will not have significant time to lose alot of it's intensity. :eek:
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#9 Postby djtil » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:27 pm

i wouldnt agree with that, even if only over land for a couple hours it will begin to weaken. maybe only 10-20mph but its impossible to maintain strength over the whole peninsula, imo.
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:32 pm

if the jet remains in the same position as it is now, it will maintain its intensity across the peninsula. Allison in 2001 rapidly intensified while well inland in Mississippi because of a similar jet interaction
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#11 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:39 pm

This is what I have feared for the past couple of days.

Wilma is in the very divergent right entrance region of a 120+ kt jet max to the north.

So as Derek just said, if the Wilma and the jet remain in the same relative position, she will not weaken and possibly reach Cat 3 (if she isn't already there.)
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#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:41 pm

I believe something like that happen to Charley last year...I think this will get up to around 120 to 125 mph.
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#13 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:41 pm

RECON just measured 110KT flight-level winds, which would round off to around 100KT (or Category Three) surface winds.

Wilma is definately organizing. Also, the banding features are starting to wrap around the eye.
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#14 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:43 pm

BReb wrote:She's entering cooler waters, though:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5295go.jpg

Btw- where's the much hyped shear?


that water can support a 3 easily and the shear is not a big deal per shear maps and nhc 5 o clock disco, we have a very healthy wilma and its looking better, a 4 would shock the hell out of all involved including nhc.
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#15 Postby thunderchief » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:44 pm

look at the outflow to the north along the jet... that sure isnt hurting the storm any.
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#16 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:45 pm

That jet streak is crazy. Also, don't look now, but she's got a nice little jet streak stretching south into the Caribbean, too.
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#17 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:47 pm

That jet streak is crazy. Also, don't look now, but she's got a nice little jet streak stretching south into the Caribbean, too.
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#18 Postby Wacahootaman » Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:57 pm

This really looks bad! :eek: :eek: :eek:

The IR loop has shown eye forming with a lot of deep red raparounds and even some high blacks mixed in too and it has happened in the last 4 hours!!

If it keeps strengthening at this rate it will be a strong 3 or even a 4 at landfall!:eek: :eek: :eek:

Lordy, lets hope and pray it hits south of Naples in the glades because if it hits north of Naples, it will be 30 billion dollar storm!
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#19 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:04 pm

BReb wrote:She's entering cooler waters, though:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5295go.jpg

Btw- where's the much hyped shear?


Yup. Those freezing 84 degree waters right off our coast.

Gang, 84 won't support a 5, but it will keep a 3 rocking and rolling. Quit focusing on the SST's now and pray the shear increases. Otherwise a solid 3 could slam into us. There's been too much focus on this or that and everyone seems to be forgetting (except us down here) about Charley and how it defied the experts.

And before everyone gives me the sermon on SSTs I shall reply quite briefly:

Vince
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#20 Postby Damar91 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:12 pm

I know it's NOT likely at all, but I just hope she's not pulling what she did before she bottomed out in the caribean.
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