Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[CronkPSU]

.90 reduction

[StrongWind]

I feel like I'm trapped in he Storm2K version of "Groundhog Day." Only this is going to be a day I'm pretty sure I won't want to live over and over.

[Praxus]

The latest sat frame sure looks like a cat 3 to me, and I don't like the way
its looking so organized. People in the path really need to be basing their
plans on a MAJOR hit and act accordingly.

[cjrciadt]

120mph for 11pm with 958mb

[wxman57]

Wilma's convection does look better on satellite now. I measure the eye diameter at between 50 and 60 miles now. It'll be hard for Wilma to wrap up quickly with an eye that size, but the increased convection will bring those stronger winds more of the way around the center.

Also, I'm measuring a movement to about 059 degrees at 13 kts. That course (if it doesn't change) would put it inland about 20 miles south of Naples. The eye is near 24.3N/84.0W at 0139Z - 190 miles from the coast of Florida. Center of the eye should reach the coast by sunrise, assuming it'll be speeding up a bit overnight.

Time to hunker-down in southern Florida. Stay safe if you're down there!

[gatorcane]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

[abajan]

Earlier on CNN, Max Mayfield mentioned that there are indications that surface winds in some areas of Wilma may actually be higher than at flight level. That's not good.

I think we're looking at a Cat3 hitting Florida.

[6SpeedTA95]

The latest sat frame sure looks like a cat 3 to me, and I don't like the way
its looking so organized. People in the path really need to be basing their
plans on a MAJOR hit and act accordingly.

Yeah it is looking stronger...I could see 115mph winds on the 10pm advisory.

[DESTRUCTION5]

120mph for 11pm with 958mb

If this is Actual ..i nailed it..

[gatorcane]

I think 120mph winds at least.

[6SpeedTA95]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

It was forcasted to strengthen once off the yucatan but shear and dry air would limit the strengthening and I think it is indeed effecting it but not as much as previously thought for a couple reasons. She got off the yucatan ahead of forcast, and alpha may be keeping her just a bit further south than forcasted with most of the shear just to her north the core of the storm is not being directly affected by the 20kt shear.

[vaffie]

Wilma's convection does look better on satellite now. I measure the eye diameter at between 50 and 60 miles now. It'll be hard for Wilma to wrap up quickly with an eye that size, but the increased convection will bring those stronger winds more of the way around the center.

Also, I'm measuring a movement to about 059 degrees at 13 kts. That course (if it doesn't change) would put it inland about 20 miles south of Naples. The eye is near 24.3N/84.0W at 0139Z - 190 miles from the coast of Florida. Center of the eye should reach the coast by sunrise, assuming it'll be speeding up a bit overnight.

Time to hunker-down in southern Florida. Stay safe if you're down there!

That would therefore mean that the eye would go over Naples, since the radius is 25 miles, right?

[krysof]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

I think the shear is not as strong as projected which is probably producing a strenghtening trend. Wilma has always been able to fend off dry air.

[krysof]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

I think the shear is not as strong as projected which is probably producing a strenghtening trend. Wilma has always been able to fend off dry air.

[Patrick99]

Even if she strengthens no more - she's still come a long way back from her little jog on the Yucatan. I had my doubts......but she's a fighter.

[krysof]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

I think the shear is not as strong as projected which is probably producing a strenghtening trend. Wilma has always been able to fend off dry air.

[ConvergenceZone]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

You are right about that!!! I know when I was looking at my maps, I too was seeing significant shear ahead of the storm, especially as the trough came on in and you could easily spot the dry air, so I can completely understand why the NHC said what they said, and I agreed. I think after this storm, I'm going to quit guessing on strength and let the storm make up it's own mind. Everytime I think something is going to happen, it doesn't and everytime I think something isn't going to happen, it does....

[MiamiensisWx]

I've noticed that, now that Wilma's strengthening, stronger winds are being found in the northern half of the storm (e.g., the 114KT flight-level wind recently reported in the northeast quadrant). This indicates strengthening, in my opinion, and that the north part of the storm is now starting to catch up to the supposed stronger south part of the storm. Who agrees?

[soonertwister]

Latest recon had 118 mph surface winds.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am in New Port Richey. When should I see worse weather and TS winds?

Matt

could she jog north at all of current track. Even though it looks she will landfall 20 miles south of naples, doesnt mean she will?