Hundreds may die in keys?

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dhweather
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Hundreds may die in keys?

#1 Postby dhweather » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:51 pm

Anderson Cooper and the CNN crew reports that 80% of the 28,000
residents of Key West chose to ride out Wilma. That leaves roughly
22,000 people on the island that has no shelters.

It's sickening to watch people out "playing" as Wilma comes in, and they
have little regard for their own safety, the safety of others, nor
mother nature.

Should the strenghtening trend continue and Wilma regain cat 3 status,
which I expect her to do, and the southern eyewall slam Key West,
we may very well see countless deaths.

It's dark, there will be no electricity, and water everywhere.
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#2 Postby wlfpack81 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:00 pm

I'm not gonna speculate on death toll right now but if the current forecast from the NHC called for 5-8ft of surge for the Keys. I don't know about you but even that amount of surge is enough to make me want to get out of a low lying area like the Keys.

I'm sure there'll be a few who will wish they had decided not to ride this thing out there. I always say never a good idea to ride any kind of hurricane out on a barrier island or low lying island.
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:02 pm

I've heard a 10ft + storm surge.

Why 20% only evacuated is beyond me.

How come there were not mandatory evacuations this time but yet for every other storm that comes near them, there are?

Makes not sense to me :roll:
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#4 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:05 pm

They were mandatory just most did not listen expecting it to go somewhere else since so many have :roll:
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#5 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:05 pm

I heard Cantore saying 5-10 feet, and also said that they could be cut of from the mainland by water. That is freaky.
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#6 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:06 pm

boca_chris wrote:I've heard a 10ft + storm surge.

Why 20% only evacuated is beyond me.

How come there were not mandatory evacuations this time but yet for every other storm that comes near them, there are?

Makes not sense to me :roll:


mandatory is not mandatory in the world of evacs. they are not going to force people to leave and this is the keys for better or worse and they just dont leave unless its a 4/5.
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#7 Postby olddude » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:11 pm

"Hundreds may die? Countless deaths! "- Get a grip!!

Yeah, I've never been a fan of people frolicing during a cane but I figure it's Darwin at work. In the Keys most homes are built to withstand storms of this magnitude. All homes built in the past three decades are on stilts. Many of the folks that left are the ones that should have - Mobile homes or low lying. Shutters are on 90% of all homes and have been mandatory on all new construction for 20 years. We take weather seriously here and prep for it.

Again, Get a Grip! :roll:
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#8 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:12 pm

I know it seems ludicrous...but even Key West is a couple feet above sea level. We have an old house down there that withstood the 1919 hurricane. I don't know about storm surge...the old-timers always seem to brush it off....but we'll see. I don't think KW has been tested like this since Isbell. Who knows...this might be the strongest storm to have an impact on Key West since 1919.

I'm sure Roosevelt Blvd. on the Atlantic side will be flooded, along with the airport...and probably the Truman Annex and possibly parts of Duval.

As for them not leaving......I'm sure they are sick and tired of being told to leave when every single hurricane remotely threatens the area. They were told to leave with Ivan, if I'm not mistaken, along with Rita, Dennis, and probably Charley, right? Those were all big old non-factors for Key West. Personally, I think they've heard "WOLF!" one too many times.
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#9 Postby dhweather » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:17 pm

olddude wrote:"Hundreds may die? Countless deaths! "- Get a grip!!

Yeah, I've never been a fan of people frolicing during a cane but I figure it's Darwin at work. In the Keys most homes are built to withstand storms of this magnitude. All homes built in the past three decades are on stilts. Many of the folks that left are the ones that should have - Mobile homes or low lying. Shutters are on 90% of all homes and have been mandatory on all new construction for 20 years. We take weather seriously here and prep for it.

Again, Get a Grip! :roll:


Yes, Darwin at work. But say A1A gets a bridge or two out. Key West is
cut off and flooded. Shutters mandatory, but so is evacuation.
Of course, 80% of them stayed.

I don't think anyone did a better job than Galveston this year in getting
the prep done and getting out of dodge. Better to come back to
a little damage than to ride out a night of hell.
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#10 Postby SamSagnella » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:23 pm

Lets hope that the current tornado-warned supercell doesn't do damage before the brunt of the sustained winds arrive...if that happens yall are screwed.
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#11 Postby olddude » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:30 pm

Yep, Galvaston did do a great job and believe me if we had a Cat 4 or 5 coming at us, these islands would be a ghost town. That is not the case, this time. My family evaced on Thursday morning and I have been ready to go if need be. I've left before. No need this time. Or should I say time will tell. :eek:

Scott
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#12 Postby rockyman » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:31 pm

olddude wrote:"Hundreds may die? Countless deaths! "- Get a grip!!

Yeah, I've never been a fan of people frolicing during a cane but I figure it's Darwin at work. In the Keys most homes are built to withstand storms of this magnitude. All homes built in the past three decades are on stilts. Many of the folks that left are the ones that should have - Mobile homes or low lying. Shutters are on 90% of all homes and have been mandatory on all new construction for 20 years. We take weather seriously here and prep for it.

Again, Get a Grip! :roll:


I have to disagree with your reasoning...I know first hand that "building to code" and putting your homes on "stilts" is no guarantee that it will survive a Cat 3 storm surge...Dauphin Island (Alabama) lost 300+ homes that were all on stilts and many were built to exceed the strictest wind codes in the country...When a wall of water hits a home, stilts may not save it...When have these Keys stilt homes been really tested with a large surge? Has a really large storm surge hit Key West in the last three decades? I hope you are right, but I'm not so sure...
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#13 Postby MGC » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:36 pm

Don't forget the large waves on top of the surge. The media should have shown video from the Mississippi coast to compell some of these stuborn people to leave. Imagine the size of those waves atop the surge. I would not be surprised to see a scene similar to the Mississippi Gulf Coast happen in the keys tomorrow. I'm really concerned that nothing was learned from Katrina. Yes, there may be many dead......MGC
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:37 pm

storm surge starting to impact Key West....just saw footage on TWC :eek:
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#15 Postby olddude » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:39 pm

Nope, the Keys stilts havn't been tested by a really strong surge. George was the strongest high Cat 2. Time will tell and I'm not about to argue with someone from Daulphin island. I bow to your experience. :wink:

Scott
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#16 Postby thunderchief » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:46 pm

There is no comparing cat4/5 katrina in the surge prone gulf to a cat 3 in somewhat surge resistant islands.
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#17 Postby rockyman » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:46 pm

olddude wrote:Nope, the Keys stilts havn't been tested by a really strong surge. George was the strongest high Cat 2. Time will tell and I'm not about to argue with someone from Daulphin island. I bow to your experience. :wink:

Scott


I'm very hopeful that the beautiful Keys do not see what we saw here...our surge from Katrina was estimated around 11 feet...and it absolutely decimated our West End...out of 13 streets on the far West End, each street with 4-6 houses each, only 4 houses survived...ALL of the rest VANISHED without a trace...I had a real good friend who built a gorgeous 6000 square foot duplex that he used as a church retreat, he spent an extra $100,000 to beef up the house...after Katrina, he came back to find 1 fork, 1 spoon, and a tattered piece of curtain hanging from a fire hydrant...so very sad. :(
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#18 Postby olddude » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:54 pm

I don't doubt that some of the waterfront and adjacent homes are going to take some damage. Particularly homes that have enclosures beneath.

Scott
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#19 Postby StrongWind » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:57 pm

Peacock channel (NBC?) in Miami just said there are 40 foot waves being recorded in the Gulf. Expect waves of about 1/2 that after they break on top of a 15 foot storm surge in Key West as storm is passing closer and has gotten much stronger than was being expected yesterday. Hunker down. Or, in this case, maybe hunker up.
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#20 Postby Radar » Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:11 pm

Alot of residents of the Key's believe the old superstition that the Nun's grotto helps to protect the Key's from hurricanes, lets hope they are right. But regardless they have had so many close calls recently it is not surprising they are little lax about the whole thing. I saw that in MS even while Cat 5 Katrina was bearing down on the coast. I think once you get lax you open yourself up to danger and this is what is happening in the Keys.
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