Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[6SpeedTA95]

You know, did you guys notice that the dropsonde doesn't discuss two eyewalls now, it's one eyewall and it's circular 55 miles! And the temperature difference is now 9 degrees! That temp difference and a clarified eye structure means it will be strengthening as it approaches...

It was 6 degrees on the latest vortex message.

I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m

Still, that deserves a "WOW".

This really could crank up to 125 before landfall.

Wow.

Thats what I'm afraid of

[Canelaw99]

As for the strength on the SE side, look at the windfield map - this answers a lot in my book, that's for sure:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24

[johngaltfla]

From the looks of it, the worst of the weather on the east coast is going to stay from Fort Lauderdale northward. It's already at Key West's latitude, so I'm not sure why people are saying Miami will get a cat 2.

The weather will be to the south and the eye is 55miles wide, some of the eye will pass over dade, and strongest winds o south, miami gets cat 2!

Everything I have heard says worse "weather" will be North of center. Looking at radar that is confirmed.

I would love to know where where that has been confirmed aside from your look at radar. Seriously, I'll trade you Cat 2/3 sustained wind for TS winds any day. As far as I have seen from Max Mayfield to Brian Norcross, to the windfield analysis, the SE side is it for the strongest winds.

I think what he's referring to is the collision between the warm moist air which is heavier on the northside with the cold front creating concentrated gradiants and higher windspeeds, more rain, and more tornadoes than originally forecast. The overall windspeed, will be devestating on the southside of the storm.

[Vandora]

My guess is damage in Miami will be about as bad as Katrina was. Katrina was a cat 1 that went just north of the city, and Wilma is/will be a cat 2/3 passing well north of the city.

Unless I'm reading/understanding what you're saying - and my eyes are tired, so it's possible... Not sure how that could have happened. The eyewall was over ME, and I am in Miami. She came in at the Broward/Miami-Dade line and went SOUTHwest.

I probably should have said just north of downtown. I'm not familiar with the layout of the city, so I'm probably not describing it 100% accurately. It might have tracked through the northern portions of the city.

As Canelaw99 mentioned, it went through the southern part. Kendall - where I live - is in southwest Miami.

That's a different storm, though, back to Wilma.

[tronbunny]

Will someone check the radra etc.. please. (I've lost some of my bookmarks)
With a possible tornado waning in Lake County.. looks like the weather is piling up across citrus, marion and flagler counties.. like the front may be there-ish.
It looks as if there will be wicked weather all along the frontal boundary, like weather storm surge with the boundary being like the shoreline.

If this doesn't make sense it's because I haven't had but 4 hours of sleep in the past 2 days!
Still doing house chores tonite.
Also worrying about making the right call to keep my office in south Orlando closed tomorrow.

[texasweatherwatcher]

[johngaltfla]

I'm glad this season is almost over.
.
.
.
.
.
You mean it's not?!?!?!?!?



I can't wait to see the November suprise.

[vaffie]

You know, that satellite loop makes it look like it is determined to have -80 degree cloudtops all around the center before it gets to Florida. And in regard to the debate about north or south being stronger, I think that unless the convection becomes stronger on the south side (which it is doing at present anyway), they might both be close to equal. But since it is strengthening and fully wrapping around by the time it gets to Florida, that will mean that the south side--read Fort Lauderdale, Miami--will get the strongest winds--perhaps with wind gusts up to 145. And remember that this is a really wide storm with a lot of areas far removed from the eye with high winds--just look at the recon reports, so it looks BAD. The latest forecast damage report from: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html
now has $24 billion of damage projected, and it is a gross underestimate because the highest wind it says anyone will receive is 106. So this will cause more damage than Andrew already....

[thermos]

I'm glad this season is almost over.
.
.
.
.
.
You mean it's not?!?!?!?!?



I can't wait to see the November suprise.

Hurricane Beta

[WeatherEmperor]

You know, that satellite loop makes it look like it is determined to have -80 degree cloudtops all around the center before it gets to Florida. And in regard to the debate about north or south being stronger, I think that unless the convection becomes stronger on the south side (which it is doing at present anyway), they might both be close to equal. But since it is strengthening and fully wrapping around by the time it gets to Florida, that will mean that the south side--read Fort Lauderdale, Miami--will get the strongest winds--perhaps with wind gusts up to 145. And remember that this is a really wide storm with a lot of areas far removed from the eye with high winds--just look at the recon reports, so it looks BAD. The latest forecast damage report from: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html
now has $24 billion of damage projected, and it is a gross underestimate because the highest wind it says anyone will receive is 106. So this will cause more damage than Andrew already....

oh my gosh that doesnt sound good. Im really starting to get scared here. I havent been through a hurricane this strong since Andrew.

<RICKY>

[tronbunny]

Here's one example of where to see the piling of weather across mid-NFla.

If that front keeps pushing.. the North side of the storm looks to be almost as ugly as the south!

[milankovitch]

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

26.73 billion (uninsured+insured) dollars in wind (only) damage to Florida. This run was completed late this afternoon and max winds of 106mph. Moving over a very populate area in east Florida.

EDIT: oops someone already posted this oh well now there's a graphic.

[6SpeedTA95]

You know, that satellite loop makes it look like it is determined to have -80 degree cloudtops all around the center before it gets to Florida. And in regard to the debate about north or south being stronger, I think that unless the convection becomes stronger on the south side (which it is doing at present anyway), they might both be close to equal. But since it is strengthening and fully wrapping around by the time it gets to Florida, that will mean that the south side--read Fort Lauderdale, Miami--will get the strongest winds--perhaps with wind gusts up to 145. And remember that this is a really wide storm with a lot of areas far removed from the eye with high winds--just look at the recon reports, so it looks BAD. The latest forecast damage report from: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html
now has $24 billion of damage projected, and it is a gross underestimate because the highest wind it says anyone will receive is 106. So this will cause more damage than Andrew already....

Thats scary, wind damage increases exponentially so 125mph winds would probably push that estimate up to 30 or low 30 billions

[TampaFl]

Will someone check the radra etc.. please. (I've lost some of my bookmarks)
With a possible tornado waning in Lake County.. looks like the weather is piling up across citrus, marion and flagler counties.. like the front may be there-ish.
It looks as if there will be wicked weather all along the frontal boundary, like weather storm surge with the boundary being like the shoreline.

If this doesn't make sense it's because I haven't had but 4 hours of sleep in the past 2 days!
Still doing house chores tonite.
Also worrying about making the right call to keep my office in south Orlando closed tomorrow.

Tornado Warning
FLC069-240445-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.051024T0342Z-051024T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAVARES...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...
GROVELAND...FERNDALE...EUSTIS

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
CLERMONT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.*

THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
FERNDALE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND HOWEY IN THE HILLS BY 1230 AM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF TAVARES BY 1245 AM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2854 8191 2847 8176 2848 8166 2886 8166
2886 8177

$$

BRAGAW/SEDLOCK




ls: /home/ldm/data/panda/*SVR*: No such file or directory

[WxGuy1]

You know, did you guys notice that the dropsonde doesn't discuss two eyewalls now, it's one eyewall and it's circular 55 miles! And the temperature difference is now 9 degrees! That temp difference and a clarified eye structure means it will be strengthening as it approaches...

It was 6 degrees on the latest vortex message.

I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m

Still, that deserves a "WOW".

This really could crank up to 125 before landfall.

Wow.

No offense, but how is that "WOW"? 15C eye temp is not impressive, neither is a 6C eyewall temp gradient. If the eye temp was >22C, or the temp grad was >10C, I'd be a little more impressed

[mtm4319]

You know, that satellite loop makes it look like it is determined to have -80 degree cloudtops all around the center before it gets to Florida. And in regard to the debate about north or south being stronger, I think that unless the convection becomes stronger on the south side (which it is doing at present anyway), they might both be close to equal. But since it is strengthening and fully wrapping around by the time it gets to Florida, that will mean that the south side--read Fort Lauderdale, Miami--will get the strongest winds--perhaps with wind gusts up to 145. And remember that this is a really wide storm with a lot of areas far removed from the eye with high winds--just look at the recon reports, so it looks BAD. The latest forecast damage report from: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html
now has $24 billion of damage projected, and it is a gross underestimate because the highest wind it says anyone will receive is 106. So this will cause more damage than Andrew already....

Uh... is the Hope Diamond being secretly stored in Everglades City or something?

[gatorcane]

hurricane beta when/if it forms is going to be a fish.

I know because I have one in my tank.

[Stratosphere747]

It sure does look like from the latest Key West radar that the eye is expanding?

[WxGuy1]

I would be VERY surprised if damage exceeded $15 billion. Cmon, Ivan, Charlie, Frances, etc, were all <$15 billion last year. It takes quite a storm hitting expensive real estate to encroach upon the $25 billion mark.

[thermos]

hurricane beta when/if it forms is going to be a fish.

I know because I have one in my tank.

I hope your forecast for Beta holds.