Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[thermos]

It sure does look like from the latest Key West radar that the eye is expanding?

I thought it was contracting.

[6SpeedTA95]

I would be VERY surprised if damage exceeded $15 billion. Cmon, Ivan, Charlie, Frances, etc, were all <$15 billion last year. It takes quite a storm hitting expensive real estate to encroach upon the $25 billion mark.

Miami has tons of high end real estate bro. Although if that thing is right it'll be higher than projected due to the increased wind speeds. But you do have to wonder how accurate that thing is.

[CronkPSU]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z... DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST
FLORIDA INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160
MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST...
AND A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS MEASURED BY THE C-MAN OBSERVING SITE ON
SOMBRERO KEY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN

[DrStorm]

It sure does look like from the latest Key West radar that the eye is expanding?

I thought it was contracting.

Me too.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.shtml

Run a loop.

Could just be me.

[jasons2k]

Will someone check the radra etc.. please. (I've lost some of my bookmarks)
With a possible tornado waning in Lake County.. looks like the weather is piling up across citrus, marion and flagler counties.. like the front may be there-ish.
It looks as if there will be wicked weather all along the frontal boundary, like weather storm surge with the boundary being like the shoreline.


If this doesn't make sense it's because I haven't had but 4 hours of sleep in the past 2 days!
Still doing house chores tonite.
Also worrying about making the right call to keep my office in south Orlando closed tomorrow.

Click thumbnail, then image for fullsize:

[gatorcane]

Jeanne and Frances did nothing to Miami.

Wilma may be close to a direct hit (given the eye is so wide).

Remember Katrina caused $2 billion in South Florida alone although
much of this was inflicted upon the agriculture sector.

[milankovitch]

It sure does look like from the latest Key West radar that the eye is expanding?

I thought it was contracting.

Looks to be becoming more circular.

[vaffie]

You want to know an amazing statistic I just calculated? 10-15% of Florida will experience the eye of this storm going over them--about 5500 square miles!

[eyewall07]

Quick question

Anyone think land friction might cause a slight east shift. ie Charley ??

[AZRainman]

But you do have to wonder how accurate that thing is.

Kinetic Analysis Corporation estimates are usually "way under" and consider they said Katrina was estimated ay Total Losses: $ 19.54 Billion.

Cat 3-2 all the way thru, plus the Keys = $26 billion+

[LAwxrgal]

It's quite possible, we know last year the hurricane damage list was rewritten, and it's quite possible it will be rewritten again this year. Is it possible Wilma could bump Andrew to 3rd on the damage list?

[milankovitch]

But you do have to wonder how accurate that thing is.

Kinetic Analysis Corporation estimates are usually "way under" and consider they said Katrina was estimated ay Total Losses: $ 19.54 Billion.

Cat 3-2 all the way thru, plus the Keys = $26 billion+

It tends to underestimate surge damage and flooding damage especially, has something like only a couple foot surge and zero dollars in surge damage. Wind damage it seems to do a better job with.

[jasons2k]

I'm not convinced this will make landfall in Collier. It looks on GrLevel 3 it's moving more ENE, making landfall on mainland Monroe and the Keys to get raked by the southern eyewall.

[mtm4319]

I'm not convinced this will make landfall in Collier. It looks on GrLevel 3 it's moving more ENE, making landfall on mainland Monroe and the Keys to get raked by the southern eyewall.

I did notice a slight rightward bend in the tracking line that NHC is showing.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not convinced this will make landfall in Collier. It looks on GrLevel 3 it's moving more ENE, making landfall on mainland Monroe and the Keys to get raked by the southern eyewall.

I was thinking the same thing. Have to agree with Mil that the eye has looks more circular and not expanding like I thought. The southern edge though looks to hit Key West.

[thermos]

The Keys are about to take a major beating:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... kbyx.shtml

[gatorcane]

eye does seem to be contracting...

[LAwxrgal]

Is it my imagination or will Wilma's eye go right over Miami near exit? Extrapolating the ENE motion...just wondering, I'm not even an amateur met...

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

I'm gonna dread the day a cat 5 hurricane makes a direct hit on Miami. Say within the next 50 years, the probablity of this happening is what... 90%