Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[johngaltfla]

Wow. The winds are really picking up now. That pic Thead says it all. When those reds wrap around all of the west coast is going to feel that mess.

Good luck to you guys in the Miami to West Palm Beach areas!

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 36


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005


...Wilma stronger and approaching the southwest coast of Florida...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 25.5 north...longitude 82.4 west or about 55 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track
the center will make landfall along the southwestern Florida coast
in a few hours and cross the southern Florida Peninsula later
today. However this is a large hurricane and strong winds will be
experienced well before the arrival of the center.
Data received from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...with
higher gusts. Wilma is a strong category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is
expected before landfall. Some weakening is likely as Wilma
crosses the southern Florida Peninsula today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 9 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.

Wilma is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall...with
maximum amounts of 10 inches...across central and southern
Florida...including the Florida Keys. Western Cuba may see
additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of the
northwest Bahamas.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.
Tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.5 N... 82.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Wilma Forecast/Advisory Number 36


Statement as of 09:00Z on October 24, 2005



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

Hurricane center located near 25.5n 82.4w at 24/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 50 degrees at 17 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 952 mb
eye diameter 65 nm
Max sustained winds 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt.
64 kt....... 75ne 80se 75sw 50nw.
50 kt.......125ne 125se 125sw 90nw.
34 kt.......200ne 200se 175sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..325ne 300se 200sw 325nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.5n 82.4w at 24/0900z
at 24/0600z center was located near 25.0n 83.1w

forecast valid 24/1800z 27.9n 79.0w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 85se 75sw 50nw.
50 kt...125ne 125se 100sw 90nw.
34 kt...200ne 225se 175sw 175nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 32.9n 73.1w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 85se 60sw 30nw.
50 kt...125ne 150se 125sw 75nw.
34 kt...200ne 225se 200sw 175nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 39.0n 66.5w...extratropical
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 kt...225ne 250se 225sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 26/0600z 44.0n 60.0w...extratropical
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 kt...200ne 250se 175sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 27/0600z 47.5n 51.0w...extratropical
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt...100ne 175se 75sw 50nw.
34 kt...200ne 250se 175sw 125nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 28/0600z 48.0n 40.0w...extratropical
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.

Outlook valid 29/0600z 48.0n 29.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.5n 82.4w

next advisory at 24/1500z

forecaster Pasch

[mtm4319]

125mph as of 5 AM. Probably too late to upgrade to cat 4 after this.

[johngaltfla]

125mph as of 5 AM. Probably too late to upgrade to cat 4 after this.

NHC probably will. They have about 2 hours while this sucker goes nuts.

[deltadog03]

yup.....got lied too AGAIN!!!! all have a good night and stay safe....no cat 4 upgrade...AMAZING how they are gonna dodge this bullet and not upgrade this

[superfly]

125mph as of 5 AM. Probably too late to upgrade to cat 4 after this.

They can always upgrade post-analysis if the surface observations warrant it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What more needs to be said...There was two runs showing it as a cat4. In still no upgrade.

[mtm4319]

125mph as of 5 AM. Probably too late to upgrade to cat 4 after this.

They can always upgrade post-analysis if the surface observations warrant it.

I'm waiting for the 5am discussion to see if they talk about the 135-kt flight level winds.

[ixocean]

Hi all, just woke up to some interesting sounds...I thought a train was running past my window at 70MPH. Not sure about all of this talk about strengthening, but Wilma sure is a nasty lady.

[johngaltfla]

Marco Island is in a lot of trouble. They are really getting zapped right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How strong are the winds on marco island?

[dixiebreeze]

Strong Cat. 3 at 5 .m. update:

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

[markymark8]

How strong are the winds on marco island?

Mark Sudduth was just out there got a 82 mph wind gust and storm surge is starting to roll in waves 6 feet

[THead]

So since we were always told it would be weakening on landfall and thats not the case........I'm thinking it will pretty much stay steady across the state.......and won't lose a category like was previously thought.??

[Florida_brit]

Revised advisory from NHC live on TV
Latest severe weather warning
Winds likley to be 125mph (has increased again!)
Gusting to 155mph (est. gusts)

[AZRainman]

Anyone see or know the time the eyewall is suppose to reach the coast?

2 hours?

[EyELeSs1]

How strong are the winds on marco island?

Mark Sudduth was just out there got a 82 mph wind gust and storm surge is starting to roll in waves 6 feet

How do u know this?

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 36


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005


In spite of its very large ragged eye...Wilma has continued to
intensify and based on Doppler and aircraft data...it is now a
high-end Cat. 3...110-kt...hurricane. Aircraft flight level winds
were as high as 135 kt earlier but Doppler radar observations
indicate that these winds were likely associated with transient
mesoscale features. No significant changes in intensity are likely
prior to landfall. After crossing Florida...Wilma should
transition into a powerful extratropical storm within a couple of
days as it interacts with an intense baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States.
Recon and radar fixes indicate that the motion is about 050/17.
Acceleration is forecast as Wilma is becoming caught in the
southwesterly flow associated with the abovementioned trough.
Track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the next 24
hours or so of the forecast and diverge thereafter as the models
disagree on how Wilma will interact with the higher latitude flow.
No significant changes in the NHC forecast track have been made
over the first 24 hours or so. The latter part of the official
forecast is a little east of the previous track... over the North
Atlantic.
The forecast track takes Wilma inland in a few hours. People in
southern Florida should be mindful that destructive winds and large
storm surges are occurring well away from the center...particularly
over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 24/0900z 25.5n 82.4w 110 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 27.9n 79.0w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 32.9n 73.1w 75 kt
36hr VT 25/1800z 39.0n 66.5w 60 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 26/0600z 44.0n 60.0w 60 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 27/0600z 47.5n 51.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 28/0600z 48.0n 40.0w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 29/0600z 48.0n 29.0w 50 kt...extratropical

[johngaltfla]

Anyone see or know the time the eyewall is suppose to reach the coast?

2 hours?

About that. Local mets say the elongation has really increased the winds in Charlotte county. Ah well. Nice chatting with you guys, we're going to lose the net and power soon.