Score another one for the NHC

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Downdraft
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Score another one for the NHC

#1 Postby Downdraft » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:39 pm

While Wilma's intensity across the Gulf of Mexico was a problem for everyone, (someone forgot to tell Wilma she was supposed to weaken from the sheer) the NHC nailed another landfall. The cone was correct the predicted landfall virtually perfect. All in all I'd have to say the NHC sets a bencmark for credibility the rest of the U.S. government should only hope to achieve.
As NOAA the NWS and the NHC come under increasing attack from private concerns we should all remember what we have now and fight to keep it. Normally competition is a good thing but not when you stifle one of the interests for the pure profit gain of another. Way to go NHC you ARE the best!!!!
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#2 Postby inotherwords » Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:42 pm

Amen. And with the right kind of funding I believe they could get a better handle on intensity forecasting and only improve on that year by year, too, as they have with track accuracy.

This was a real nail-biter and I'm glad it's over but it sure was interesting to witness history and see and experience the power of this storm. Let's hope it's another century before we see another one like her. I hope the NHC guys get a well-deserved rest soon.

Anyone know what Dr. Gray has predicted for November? His October prediction was pretty amazing, so he should be congratulated also.
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#3 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:06 pm

score one for what column??
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#4 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:08 pm

deltadog03 wrote:score one for what column??


They NAILED the track.

Intensity was hard to predict as usual, but can you do better?
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#5 Postby aerojad » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:11 pm

Yes, for $9.95 a month.

Signed,
Accu...you know.
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#6 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:17 pm

I am literally startled with the accuracy of the forecasts they've been putting out this year. The science is progressing very well.
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#7 Postby soonertwister » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:21 pm

The said over and over "always prepare for a hurricane at least one category stronger than you think you are going to get".

The ones who didn't have some ugly repair bills ahead.
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#8 Postby FunkMasterB » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:22 pm

All in all I'd have to say the NHC sets a bencmark for credibility the rest of the U.S. government should only hope to achieve.

Indeed. It's amazing what can happen when decisions and judgments are based on science and facts.
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#9 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:24 pm

they did nail the TRACK....intensity not the greatest....they kept HOPING shear would get it and it didn't....IN FACT is still HASN'T!!!!!
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#10 Postby Downdraft » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:52 pm

FunkMasterB wrote:
All in all I'd have to say the NHC sets a bencmark for credibility the rest of the U.S. government should only hope to achieve.

Indeed. It's amazing what can happen when decisions and judgments are based on science and facts.


Absolutely, no media HYPE, no clown shooting his mouth off and then forgetting ALL the wrong calls he's made, no T.V. met's that couldn't tell it's raining outside without a window in the office. Just some very quiet scientists doing what they do with aging equipment, aircrews flying through the worst mother nature has to offer when the planes they fly in should have been retired 20 years ago. Working with models that have incomplete data in them because the one gulfstream they have needs maintenance when another could have been flying. No political pressure from the White House, the State Houses or city officials like mayors and city attorney's that cover their own a@@'s before they cover the people. Science and facts, honesty and truth. I have to question the judgement of someone that wants to pay 9.95 a month when the very best is available for free. Of course P.T. Barnum did say, "a fool and his money are soon parted." :D
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Re: Score another one for the NHC

#11 Postby hicksta » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:52 pm

Downdraft wrote:While Wilma's intensity across the Gulf of Mexico was a problem for everyone, (someone forgot to tell Wilma she was supposed to weaken from the sheer) the NHC nailed another landfall. The cone was correct the predicted landfall virtually perfect. All in all I'd have to say the NHC sets a bencmark for credibility the rest of the U.S. government should only hope to achieve.
As NOAA the NWS and the NHC come under increasing attack from private concerns we should all remember what we have now and fight to keep it. Normally competition is a good thing but not when you stifle one of the interests for the pure profit gain of another. Way to go NHC you ARE the best!!!!



Mad props.. But wish they did the same with rita =/
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#12 Postby curtadams » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:55 pm

The track accuracy on Wilma was just boggling. They got the location of FL landfall within 100 miles a week out. That's just insane.
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#13 Postby tndefender » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:58 pm

I would urge everyone to write their congressman and senators, extoll the virtues of the NHC, and demand that this valuable government agency receive adequate funding.
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#14 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:02 pm

curtadams wrote:The track accuracy on Wilma was just boggling. They got the location of FL landfall within 100 miles a week out. That's just insane.


It was only a few miles off. I am just shocked at how close it was.
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#15 Postby hicksta » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:13 pm

Brent wrote:
curtadams wrote:The track accuracy on Wilma was just boggling. They got the location of FL landfall within 100 miles a week out. That's just insane.


It was only a few miles off. I am just shocked at how close it was.


Amazing
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Paying for AccuWeather

#16 Postby Dave R » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:21 pm

I want to make something clear and I hope I represent the many subscribers to Accuweather's Pro Site. I do NOT pay the monthly fee to get a better forecast than the NWS or the NHC. I love to read JB's posts every day and I've learned a tremendous amount from his columns. He explains the various weather processes in a way that you cannot get from the NHC discussions or any book on weather. When he feels that the NHC or NWS might be off on a forecast, I like to read why he feels that way. Is he always right? Who IS always right? NOBODY! JB can predict when the pattern will be right for tropical development. He has nailed numerous tropical storm developments far in advance. This is just information that you cannot get from anywhere else. I can never get enough information when it comes to the weather, and that is why I subscribe. I've been a huge fan of JB since the days he was on WINS AM radio in NYC. I now live in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia and I wish he was on a station down here. Anyway, you can spend $9.95 a day or even in a week on things like lottery tickets, cigarettes, etc, etc and you wouldn't even think about it.
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#17 Postby wlfpack81 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:29 pm

NHC did an excellent job. Though there were some intensity forecast issues (which will be the case as that science is just too hard yet) and the storm was tricky b/c of the stall NHC had the general wnw to nw track through the Yucatan w/eventuall landfall in sw Florida from the beginning.
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Re: Paying for AccuWeather

#18 Postby flair » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:42 pm

Dave R wrote: I now live in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia and I wish he was on a station down here.
He was on 2WD (WWDE 101.3FM) for a long time until he started going over the top and arguing with everyone, then they canned him for the local TV weather mets.
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#19 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:47 pm

tndefender wrote:I would urge everyone to write their congressman and senators, extoll the virtues of the NHC, and demand that this valuable government agency receive adequate funding.
I agree!! :D They did a Great job. 8-) 8-) 8-) If only they had a crystal ball to predict the shear!! :roll: Please people. As said above..If anybody can do better.... I thought so.
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#20 Postby Dave R » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:51 pm

I knew he was on 2WD, but I didn't know he was arguing with anyone.
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