Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[f5]

a hurricane is more than WIND just look at the slabs Katrina left on the Mississippi Gulf coast

[WeatherEmperor]

Whats the name of that glue? LOL...

....but seriously, it must have held pretty good to measure 100mph.

Oh the glue? I used these incredible glue from EvoBond. I got some of that a few months ago. Fantastic product! I forgot their website. Ill look for it soon. It was amazing to keep my instrumentation tied to the roof.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Everything turned out to be better then Expected. The highest gust was 134 mph near where the system went in. Which doe's not equal to 130 mph like the recon shown...So I'm seriously thinking that Wilma was not as strong as thought....Maybe the winds did not max to the surface. A ground hurricane chaser reported last night that it did not look like any where near a cat3.

Remember Rita wiped out whole towns...In the damage pictures shown rolls of homes gone. Wilma on the other hand doe's not have that kind of damage in Florida. Yes that kind of damage is in Yuctan...But no pics or reports of damgae on the level of Katrina or even Rita yet.

Whats your thinking?

[cycloneye]

Remember Matt that Wilma was racing thru Florida and that foward movement prevented much more damage than what occured as it took only a few hours to clear all the Southern Penninsula.

[jrtalon]

Has Derek got power back yet? This was posted at 2:23pm. My heart skipped a beat when I read the first few words of the post, very poor choice of wording there.
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

[f5]

Everything turned out to be better then Expected. The highest gust was 134 mph near where the system went in. Which doe's not equal to 130 mph like the recon shown...So I'm seriously thinking that Wilma was not as strong as thought....Maybe the winds did not max to the surface. A ground hurricane chaser reported last night that it did not look like any where near a cat3.

Remember Rita wiped out whole towns...In the damage pictures shown rolls of homes gone. Wilma on the other hand doe's not have that kind of damage in Florida. Yes that kind of damage is in Yuctan...But no pics or reports of damgae on the level of Katrina or even Rita yet.

Whats your thinking?

Wilma was never a CAT 5 in the GOM

[bahamaswx]

Am I correct to assume that the winds to the immediate right of the center are approximately 36mph stronger than the advisory intensity, or has the TPC already taken that into consideration?

The MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS are just that the MAXIMUM winds found within that particular storm. If the storm is stationary then those winds were found within a stationary storm, if the storm is moving then those winds measured were in a storm that IS MOVING, so that MOVEMENT is included in the wind speed.

I am beside myself that there were several METS on air that misrepresented this last night.

This is precisely why the winds were lighter on the north side of WIlma

This is probably the most controversial topic that pops up every hurricane season.

Linkerweather has it right. I still can't understand why so many people have this misconception.

[jasons2k]

Everything turned out to be better then Expected. The highest gust was 134 mph near where the system went in. Which doe's not equal to 130 mph like the recon shown...So I'm seriously thinking that Wilma was not as strong as thought....Maybe the winds did not max to the surface. A ground hurricane chaser reported last night that it did not look like any where near a cat3.

Remember Rita wiped out whole towns...In the damage pictures shown rolls of homes gone. Wilma on the other hand doe's not have that kind of damage in Florida. Yes that kind of damage is in Yuctan...But no pics or reports of damgae on the level of Katrina or even Rita yet.

Whats your thinking?

There are virtually zero reporting stations where the strongest winds were at landfall.

[TS Zack]

a hurricane is more than WIND just look at the slabs Katrina left on the Mississippi Gulf coast

To show proof.

I went to the Ms Gulfcoast today. I have pictures of my camp and surrounding areas. Pictures only give a glimpse of what really is there.

You have to see it yourself!

For so many years, I saw it others places now it is my home I am looking at. That is when it really hits you how devastating it is.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/zackety/album?.dir=62f7&.src=ph&store=&prodid=&.done=http%3a//pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/zackety/my_photos

[inotherwords]

a hurricane is more than WIND just look at the slabs Katrina left on the Mississippi Gulf coast

To show proof.

I went to the Ms Gulfcoast today. I have pictures of my camp and surrounding areas. Pictures only give a glimpse of what really is there.

You have to see it yourself!

For so many years, I saw it others places now it is my home I am looking at. That is when it really hits you how devastating it is.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/zackety/album?.dir=62f7&.src=ph&store=&prodid=&.done=http%3a//pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/zackety/my_photos

It's very sad to see these photos. I was wondering, do you have some "before" pictures for comparison? I'd like to see the woods.

Zack, last year I went to Fairchild Gardens in south Miami and was so impressed with its beauty. The place truly was magnificent, filled with all kinds of gorgeous tropical plants. And then I went into one of the out buildings in the gardens and saw the pictures taken of the garden after Hurricane Andrew. I was dumbfounded. The pictures looked a lot like your camp. The reason for writing is this: it WILL come back. You WILL have your beautiful woods again. And plant another tree to mark the beginning of this renewal. Because it will happen. I know it seems really bleak now, but you will be able to take joy and comfort in watching it come back year after year and seeing it improve from the way it is now. You never know, maybe it will be better than it ever was before.

Thank you again for posting your pictures, I'm going to share them with a number of my friends and family.

[CharleySurvivor]

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Oh the glue? I used these incredible glue from EvoBond. I got some of that a few months ago. Fantastic product! I forgot their website. Ill look for it soon. It was amazing to keep my instrumentation tied to the roof.

<RICKY>

Thanks Ricky! I'll check it out!

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks now like maybe a huge perfect storm for new england. Then againt it could just bring rain, snow, wind and waves.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just checking in...Myself and my family are all ok here in Port St. Lucie...WOW the backside of Wilma was unreal...Our home escaped with no major damage...Trees are leaning but our new roof performed flawlessly and we lost no shingles. Some screens knocked out but all in all it could have been worse...I have been out and about because I had to go check on my project I work on. A lot of widespread floading in Western PSL and the storm turned over 3 or 4 18 wheelers that were parked near the Turnpike. Talk about a crappy situation, I have two portable bathrooms that flew into my yard from a nearby construction site. I am promptly going to call their respective owners and tell them to remove them ASAP. Anyway, thats it for now...We are still without power but are running off of the generator...The satellite dish is up and we are making the best of it...It is very comfortable with the temps in the 50's.

SouthFLTropics

[cjrciadt]

She should be lying on her deathbed, but she still looks like an intense Cat3 cane. What the merge of the front and her bring. I dont want to know.

[curtadams]

Everything turned out to be better then Expected. The highest gust was 134 mph near where the system went in. Which doe's not equal to 130 mph like the recon shown...So I'm seriously thinking that Wilma was not as strong as thought....Maybe the winds did not max to the surface. A ground hurricane chaser reported last night that it did not look like any where near a cat3.

Remember Rita wiped out whole towns...In the damage pictures shown rolls of homes gone. Wilma on the other hand doe's not have that kind of damage in Florida. Yes that kind of damage is in Yuctan...But no pics or reports of damgae on the level of Katrina or even Rita yet.

You NEVER see sustained winds on the ground matching the official "surface" winds, because it isn't the same thing. "Surface" wind is 10 meters up over open ocean. Winds are slowed by being closer to the ground, and land produces more friction than ocean. The "surface" winds are different from "backyard anemometer" winds the same way 850 mb FL winds are different from "surface".

You won't see damage like the other Cat 5's of this year because the worst impact was in a swamp - especially the surge, which is responsible for most of the OMG-type damage. Although - reports from Naples have high-rises being partly gutted by wind, which you didn't see in either Katrina or Rita. Might have been mesovortices or tornados, though; Wilma seems to have had a lot more of that than the usual hurricane.

[aerojad]

Everything turned out to be better then Expected. The highest gust was 134 mph near where the system went in. Which doe's not equal to 130 mph like the recon shown...So I'm seriously thinking that Wilma was not as strong as thought....Maybe the winds did not max to the surface. A ground hurricane chaser reported last night that it did not look like any where near a cat3.

Remember Rita wiped out whole towns...In the damage pictures shown rolls of homes gone. Wilma on the other hand doe's not have that kind of damage in Florida. Yes that kind of damage is in Yuctan...But no pics or reports of damgae on the level of Katrina or even Rita yet.

You NEVER see sustained winds on the ground matching the official "surface" winds, because it isn't the same thing. "Surface" wind is 10 meters up over open ocean. Winds are slowed by being closer to the ground, and land produces more friction than ocean. The "surface" winds are different from "backyard anemometer" winds the same way 850 mb FL winds are different from "surface".

You won't see damage like the other Cat 5's of this year because the worst impact was in a swamp - especially the surge, which is responsible for most of the OMG-type damage. Although - reports from Naples have high-rises being partly gutted by wind, which you didn't see in either Katrina or Rita. Might have been mesovortices or tornados, though; Wilma seems to have had a lot more of that than the usual hurricane.

And for lashing a swamp with the worst, downtown Miami sure took quite a beating.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z TUE OCT 25 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 74.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 41 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
50 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 350SE 300SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 74.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 41.2N 61.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 46.1N 51.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 47.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 47.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 74.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 250242
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO
THE U.S. EAST COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH...76 KM/HR... AND
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TUESDAY MORNING... AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT WILMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST... INCREASING WINDS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE- AND
STORM FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION... LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cjrciadt]

whew

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 250241
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

WILMA'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND
THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 60 NMI DOWN TO 40 NMI. THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -75 TO
-80C NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT 24/2001Z... AN AIR FORCE RECON
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 136-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME... BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION
HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION
FACTOR YIELDS ABOUT 109 KT SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION... DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77KT. ADDING THE FORWARD SPEED
OF WILMA TO THE T-NUMBERS SUPPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/41. WILMA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG DIGGING
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AFTER WHICH
A STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.

WILMA HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO OVER 26C AND WARMER SSTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 71 KT BY 24 HOURS...
THE RAPID MOTION AND LARGE SIZE OF THE WILMA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD
OFFSET THESE OTHERWISE VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS... AND ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UNTIL MUCH COOLER WATER IS REACHED BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL
LIKELY LOSE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY 36
HOURS... THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL NOT SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY...
WHICH MEANS THAT WILMA SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM AT 48-120 HR OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.6N 74.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 95 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 41.2N 61.3W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/0000Z 46.1N 51.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/0000Z 47.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/0000Z 47.5N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL