Could get interesting......

[HalloweenGale]

for New England and the Maritimes later this week. could be a superstorm.

[WxGuy1]

It'll be a potent low, but there are several key factors missing, only one of which being the lack of a strong coupled jet feature.

[cgstorm5]

So timing looks off now but doesn't the worst events happen all of a sudden? The tornado outbreak in Oklahoma in May 1999 of the 318 mph wedge wasn't forecasted since " the timing of all the right elements wasn't right or one lagged behind. I thought the Perfect Storm of Oct 30-31, 1991 was a surprise to meteorologists in the first place?

First of all even though Wilma will track farther east than the Long Is. Express storm in 1938 doesn't mean a perfect storm can't happen. It is so eerie to see the rest of the US quiet the next 5 days while the East Coast is the convergence zone of huge synoptic-scale systems. IMO don't go fishing off the Flemmish Cap anytime soon or end up like the Andrea Gail.

Look at how the rapidly deepening low over Ohio is already negatively tilted which increases chance for extropical Wilma to be sucked northwest. I don't think the mets are recognizing how deep this early Arctic sourced air mass will go. The upper pattern is so amplified for god sake the steep western ridge is tapping the Siberian Express in Canada! Most ocean bombs are underestimated in the first place.

Anyone think Bermuda will look like the Yucatan from 120 mph winds? Why in the hell do all the mets on tv play down the potential? I think they are in disbelief, too storm weary, and need a vacation.

Somebody needs to create a list of names for Noreasters this winter just look at this horrifying prediction:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77520

[Duffy]

i am on the Coast of Maine, looks like we're going to get nailed big time

[pgoss11]

Local mets here in RI say we are going to wake up in the morning thinking Wilma is slamming us but in fact it will be this un-named monster storm that will cause as much damage as a hurricane can. Local officials fear because there are no "hurricane warnings" or "tropical storm warnings" that people will think this storm is no big deal. The Red Cross is asking people to prepare themselves for the worst tomorrow and tomorrow night because if the flooding situation worsens the northeast could be in the headlines tomorrow

[pgoss11]

Local mets here in RI say we are going to wake up in the morning thinking Wilma is slamming us but in fact it will be this un-named monster storm that will cause as much damage as a hurricane can. Local officials fear because there are no "hurricane warnings" or "tropical storm warnings" that people will think this storm is no big deal. The Red Cross is asking people to prepare themselves for the worst tomorrow and tomorrow night because if the flooding situation worsens the northeast could be in the headlines tomorrow

[Duffy]

WOW
you guys look like you're going to get the Brunt of it
although i wouldn't say 60 MPH winds is anything to Sneeze at, especially since we're not used to that, like the folks in the Hurricane Belt are

[pgoss11]

That's true but our problem is our ground is so saturated that we can't take much more water. Trees will probably be dropping like flies because the roots are already weakened by the flooding rains recently, not to mention the weakened dams in this entire area. This could be very bad.

[Duffy]

yep, very bad
i think the reason why Mets haven't said much is because they don't want to get everyone in a Panic...and also to go out on a limb and say that a perfect storm type scenario will devolp takes alot of Guts because the odds are always against something like that happening
I am glad there's other storm2k members in New England because sometimes i think that we're forgotten about...especially during Tropical Season

[Stephanie]

On the NWS website, the map shows just off the coastline from the SE to the NE Hurricane wind warnings. At the Jersey and Delaware shores, we're under a Gale advisory. The October witch is brewing BIG TIME so far this year!!

[pgoss11]

Looks like us northerners have the boards to ourselves tonight. Most of our Florida board members are probably without power. Hope everyone is safe down there. It does seem like we are the forgotten part of the country when it comes to tropical weather, but we've actually had more storms hit us over the last 50 years than Tampa, and we haven't had a major hit in a long time, but it's not a matter of IF we get hit again but WHEN
Take care everyone.

[Stephanie]

Looks like us northerners have the boards to ourselves tonight. Most of our Florida board members are probably without power. Hope everyone is safe down there. It does seem like we are the forgotten part of the country when it comes to tropical weather, but we've actually had more storms hit us over the last 50 years than Tampa, and we haven't had a major hit in a long time, but it's not a matter of IF we get hit again but WHEN
Take care everyone.

Absolutely!

Just the Nor'easters themselves, or "Winter's Hurricanes" can be devastating all on their own.

I can't get over how Wilma exited Florida stil as a hurricane and I believe that she has sustained winds of 120 MPH!!! I don't think that Miami or Ft. Lauderdale was expecting something that strong to come at them from the West. I was horrified that she was a Cat 3 this morning just before landfall. How awful!!!

[pgoss11]

I think Wilma surprised everyone- now she's headed to the graveyard of all hurricanes - the North Atlantic. What a year it has been!!

[cgstorm5]

Look at this!!!: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/i ... ?model=eta

Click on the right side with 12,24,36 hr of the ETA surface models. Then,look closely off Long Is. to Mass. a hurricane symbol with fronts instead of the low from OH. TWC finally shows an unreal synoptic map with Wilma just se of the strong Noreaster. Imagine how much venting aloft both deepening lows. Could it be possible overnite a nightmore Cape Hatteras low explodes then shoots north in between Wilma and noreaster? My heart is pounding as fast as when watching FL get smacked this morning and when Wilma sat over the Yucatan. To know that by morning NYC to Boston and fishermen will underestimate another perfect storm!! Will be like this morning all over again but with snow. Don't underestimate how cold it may get tomorrow nite IMO the snowline will suddenly shift south overnite maybe to the shore. DON'T underestimate this like Floridians did.

Where are the storm2k pro mets? Are they sleeping and wrote Wilma off? I need expert analysis!

Who thinks these models are still off on timing?

[cjrciadt]

AFM, what are your thoughts on Wilma? She is still a Cat3 before reaching the front, instead of a weaker system. What could this mean for New England?

[cjrciadt]

[pgoss11]

cgstorm5 link doesn't work

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah I think this could be the perfect storm 2.

[wxmann_91]

Rapid cyclogenesis is occuring off the coast of Cape Hatteras, but the NHC mentions that Wilma's inner core was pretty resilient and that it wouldn't be swept into the circulation of the new surface low easily. Grace was a weakening hurricane and it wasn't moving too fast, this one's different. In the end, Wilma's fast speed and resilience against wind shear and absorption may be the saving grace for New England.

You might want to look at NWS WFO Taunton's AFD (also note the fact that it is low astronomical tide):

000
FXUS61 KBOX 250128 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
922 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HURRICANE WILMA IS
RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...MSAS
SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS REVEAL A DEEPENING 994 MB LOW JUST EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS BECAUSE OF THE POWERFUL CUT OFF . IN REALITY...FEEL
THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THAT AND BUOUY 44014
NEARBY IS GUSTING NEAR 45 KNOTS RIGHT NOW. IN FACT...THIS SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE 1025 MB HIGH
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF 00Z...WALLOPS ISLAND IS
SUSTAINED AT 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AND ACCOMACK COUNTY
AIRPORT ON COASTAL VIRGINIA HAD A 44 KNOT WIND GUST. THE 00Z RUC
SHOWS 50 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THIS AREA CURRENTLY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE THE STORM COMES UP INTO OUR REGION AND
DEEPENS WITH 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HIGH WIND WARNING LOOKS GREAT AND EXPECT 50 TO
65 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL DO SOME DAMAGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND MAKE TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS TUESDAY MORNING INTO PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS A CHUNK OF THE INTERIOR ALSO LOOKS GOOD
EVEN THOUGH MOS NUMBERS DON'T SUPPORT IT. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AT
850 MB FEEL THAT CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED TO THE FLOOD WATCH EITHER.
NGM/GFS/NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSPECT WE
WILL SEE SOME BANDING BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WHICH MAY YIELD POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINS WHICH THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS WON'T BE ABLE TO SHOW. MANY OF THESE RIVERS ARE
FORECASTED TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD WITH 3 INCHES OF RAIN. WE ALSO
WILL SEE AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. ACROSS
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
RAIN AND FEEL THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE FLOOD
WATCH INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
ARE PROGGED TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY SO WE CAN HANDLE THIS LATER WITH A RIVER FLOOD WATCH.

FINALLY...WE TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND LOOKING
BACK ON THE BLIZZARD IN DECEMBER OF 2003 MIGHT BE OF SOME HELP. THE
TIDE WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HIGH TIDE OF 8.9 FEET AT AROUND 5 PM WHICH IS A LOW ASTRONOMICAL
ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE DECEMBER 6TH AND 7TH BLIZZARD OF 2003...WE HAD
A LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 8.9 FEET AS WELL. WE ENDED UP WITH A
STORM SURGE OF 3.4 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE STORM FORCE
CRITERIA (48 KT) FOR OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD...WITH SEAS AT BUOY 013
REACHING 30 FEET! THIS RESULTED IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
IN THIS CASE THE LATEST MRPSSE DATA PROJECTS A SIMILAR STORM SURGE
OF BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 FEET AND WE ARE EXPECTING STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR A 12 HOUR DURATION. IN THIS
CASE...THE WNA MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SEAS OF 18 TO 23
FEET FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A FOW. IN MANY CASES...WE SEE THE SEAS
BUILD A FEW MORE FEET THAN THE WNA MODEL SHOWS WITH A STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SEAS
APPROACH 25 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...FEET THERE IS A VERY GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT. HOWEVER...WILL LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS THE LATEST DATA BEFORE UPGRADING TO A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING.

...THE DOPPLER RADAR IN TAUNTON IS EXPERIENCING A LOT OF BRIGHT
BANDING OVER WESTERN MA AND CONNECTICUT WHICH IS MAKING THE RAIN
APPEAR HEAVIER THAN IT REALLY IS RIGHT NOW...

FRANK

[cgstorm5]

I think Wilma surprised everyone- now she's headed to the graveyard of all hurricanes - the North Atlantic. What a year it has been!!

It may be Wima's deathbed but not for this monster ocean storm which is poised to slam Newfoundland to England. Ironic since UK met office issued seasonal outlook for Britain predicting the coldest on record since 1990. Reminds me of the big superstorm then chill on a Discovery Science Channel a while back titled "The Big Chill." When Europe had hot summers for 5 yrs then bang new ice age as North Atlantic drift current reverses. But that scenario is not likely just a huge shift to early winter across entire Northern Hemisphere. Wonder how global warming will continue to create more violent transitions. This fall has been like a second spring IMO.

I think winter by far has the worst events than any season. The past 5 winters along the East Coast has hurt the economy more than energy crisis, terrorism threats,inflation,etc. I am very scared many will freeze in their own homes this winter due to ridiculous heating bills.

Fixed the link BTW