Discov. Special on canes..

[hicksta]

who was the scientist who stated a theory that hurricanes go threw a 1500 year time when there are numerous landfalls each year. To when they are not alot of landfalls.... Do you think he is right about us JUST now reaching the start of the active 1500 years

[hicksta]

BUMP!!!

[Weatherfreak14]

Man missed it, when will it air agin please?

[EDR1222]

I saw a little piece on that. That would be a scary thought if that were the case!

[terstorm1012]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsro ... 05219.html (that's probably not what you're looking for)

You know I ran a google search and lots of people are commenting but noone has come up with his name. I can't even find a link to a scientific journal paper or anything.

[arkess7]

i saw that a few month's ago...........i think he maybe right?

they showed that after Katrina.....

ya never know........these guys LIVE...for this stuff.

which is AWESOME!

[terstorm1012]

was the guy Asian-American? I think this is him (based on papers he's written...http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/publi ... h.html...I have yet to see the show) http://www.ga.lsu.edu/liu.htm

[aerojad]

who was the scientist who stated a theory that hurricanes go threw a 1500 year time when there are numerous landfalls each year. To when they are not alot of landfalls.... Do you think he is right about us JUST now reaching the start of the active 1500 years

I am sure that there is probably a macro-cycle in addition to the micro-cycle of 25 years that we see, much like sun spots have a micro-cycle of 11 years and a macro-cycle of... what... 144 years or so? But there isn't enough of a historic record to explain away a 1500 year cycle in the Atlantic basin.

[milankovitch]

who was the scientist who stated a theory that hurricanes go threw a 1500 year time when there are numerous landfalls each year. To when they are not alot of landfalls.... Do you think he is right about us JUST now reaching the start of the active 1500 years

That would be Dr. Kam-biu Liu of LSU

http://www.ga.lsu.edu/liu.htm

The theory definetly has some credence; we see variation of the thermohaline oscilation with a VERY approximate 1500 year oscillation, +/- a few hundered years these are called dansgaard-oeschger (DO) cycles. They are more pronounced in glacial periods but are less obvious during interglacials. 1000 year timescale climate changes during the current interglacial are probably DO cycles or somthing simmilar. At least I believe them to be the best explanation. Since we see multi-decadal variations in hurricanes associated with the thermohaline circulation it would seem reasonable that long term variations in the thermohaline circulation would also effect hurricanes.

You can check out his book "Hurricanes and Typhoons : Past, Present, and Future" for more information.

[aerojad]

Other than theory, is there any historical record to back this?


Still interests me, though.

[milankovitch]

Other than theory, is there any historical record to back this?

Still interests me, though.

Yes, Dr. Liu did measurements of inland lake sediments. When a surge washes into an inland lake or marsh it deposits sand. This is where the support comes from. The "historical" or written record wouldn't go back far enough to show this cycle. The field of paleotempestology is just in it's infancy though and his conclusions are by no means definite, very interesting stuff though.

[canetracker]

So funny that you started this thread. I saw him on the Discovery Channel and was just looking for the info 2 nights ago on the net. I do believe his research and think that we could be in for some wild times ahead. Just think, if he is right that we are at the end of a 1500year inactive cycle, then all heck could break loose soon.

[HurricaneGirl]

[aerojad]

Other than theory, is there any historical record to back this?

Still interests me, though.

Yes, Dr. Liu did measurements of inland lake sediments. When a surge washes into an inland lake or marsh it deposits sand. This is where the support comes from. The "historical" or written record wouldn't go back far enough to show this cycle. The field of paleotempestology is just in it's infancy though and his conclusions are by no means definite, very interesting stuff though.

Ahh, and so the layers can be counted like tree rings?

[hicksta]

Something like that. But if he is right... Good lord. But these last two seasons have been amazing.

[curtadams]

who was the scientist who stated a theory that hurricanes go threw a 1500 year time when there are numerous landfalls each year. To when they are not alot of landfalls.... Do you think he is right about us JUST now reaching the start of the active 1500 years

That would be Dr. Kam-biu Liu of LSU

http://www.ga.lsu.edu/liu.htm

The theory definetly has some credence; we see variation of the thermohaline oscilation with a VERY approximate 1500 year oscillation, +/- a few hundered years these are called dansgaard-oeschger (DO) cycles. They are more pronounced in glacial periods but are less obvious during interglacials. 1000 year timescale climate changes during the current interglacial are probably DO cycles or somthing simmilar. At least I believe them to be the best explanation. Since we see multi-decadal variations in hurricanes associated with the thermohaline circulation it would seem reasonable that long term variations in the thermohaline circulation would also effect hurricanes.

"Less obvious" is putting it mildly. There's nothing at all in the Greenland cores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_events. All you see is short-term variation around a gradual cooling trend since the Holocene temp maximum.