dhweather wrote:If the NHC does not correct the issues with surge forecasts, then they
will fail in their mission to help protect lives and property.
And, in sticking with my viewpoint, the way they "communicate" those forecasts.
Take my personal situation for discussion. Our home was high and dry in Camille, but took 3 feet in Katrina. And even Point Cadet in Biloxi, while they did have an 8-foot surge in Camille, they were certainly not obliterated like they were with Katrina. In fact, most of those homes after Camille were still standing, and only required a good cleanup and new sheetrock and they were back in business.
In my understanding of Katrina's surge forecast on Sunday morning (when I still had time to leave), the rise would be anywhere from 15 to 20 feet, and 25 locally (see quote below). Rightly or wrongly, I told myself that Camille had a 28-foot surge, so surely we'd be okay again as all three of those numbers were below Camille's benchmark. And even by Sunday evening (by which time it was too late to leave anyway), they were STILL well off the ultimate result, also as quoted below.
Now, I agree that the surge forecast was surely understated as is evident ALL OVER this coastline. But my point remains that when I looked at the
"range" (15 to 22 feet) given by the NHC, I immediately considered the
lower number as my concern because I was "all the way over here in Biloxi". Furthermore, when they said "28 feet locally", my opinion there was that surely they are talking about someone
else's neighborhood, not mine!! We've NEVER flooded in this neighborhood - either by rain or by tidal/storm surge. Had the NHC simply stated that surge heights were forecast to reach 28 feet, and then gave a more-detailed expression of the wave heights, I believe I may have reacted differently. Fortunately in my case, we were (are) simply inconvenienced by the three feet of storm surge in our house, albeit quite concerned as we watched it come in our home. But for hundreds of others who died as a direct result of the surge - some mere blocks from my house - theirs is obviously another story.
Bottom line, I believe, is that the winds produced by these canes is NOTHING compared to (or at least equal to) the surge they can potentially produce. Therefore, a much better method of forecasting
AND communicating surge potential is an absolute must.
Like I said earlier, they give supposed
exact numbers on wind speed, forward motion, pressure, compass direction, and gusts. So, why not give "exact" numbers on surge?
Second bottom line, I believe, is that the NHC, and everyone else for that matter - local mets included - should really step up their attention on the surge potential to the EXACT SAME LEVEL they give to the wind speed. Wind you can prepare for and hide from - surge you cannot. In fact, if all a hurricane ever brought with it was wind (i.e., no rain, no tidal surge), they wouldn't be near the monsters some of them are.
NHC QUOTES
SUNDAY MORNING - 10am CDT:COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
SUNDAY EVENING - 10pm CDT:COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
P.S. - While we're at it, let's also consider the ambiguous terms they use.
1. Locally (where's that?)
2. Large (what does "large" mean?)
3. Dangerous (does dangerous equal death or just simple fear and concern?)
4. Battering (why not use a more common term like fierce, exceptional, or extreme? I and many other residents here are serious boaters who spend many hours far out in the Gulf and I've never heard any of them refer to extreme wave conditions they've experienced as "battering". It's just not a very descriptive term when using it to describe wave impact)
5. Significant (if I asked 200 S2K members to write a one-sentence definition of the word "significant" how many different definitions would I end up with?)
6. "To the east of" (surely technology in forecasting should allow more specifics than a general direction)
7. Elsewhere (see #1)
<<as he steps down off the box yet again...>>
