2005/2006 Northern Region Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

[AussieMark]

2005/2006 Northern Region Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook
“Cyclone Outlook Launched as Bureau Heads to Coastal Communities”

To coincide with the launch of this year’s tropical cyclone public education programme, the Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin, has released its 2005/2006 Cyclone Season Outlook. The outlook is for the Northern Region of Australia, including the Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The following expectations are based on the current Neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation atmospheric circulation system. Almost all available indicators suggest that Neutral conditions will persist throughout the coming cyclone season, which runs from 1 November until 30 April.

An early cyclone (i.e. November or early December) is unlikely this year, although cannot be ruled out. The average date of the first cyclone in the Northern Region in Neutral years falls during January.

On average 2 to 3 cyclones form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory each season. However, cyclone numbers in past seasons have ranged from none to as many as 5.

The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to see the most cyclone activity during Neutral years, although cyclones can still occur anywhere in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. In past seasons with similar conditions, cyclones occurred 50% more often in the Gulf than in the waters to the north or west of the Top End.

There is also a 50% chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) forming during the season. If a severe cyclone forms this season, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Over the next four weeks staff from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Northern Territory Emergency Service will travel to coastal communities - including Minjilang, Warruwi, Galiwinku, Alyangula, Nhulunbuy and the Tiwi Islands - to remind people of the dangers of tropical cyclones, and provide information about how they can best prepare to meet the threat.

As we can never be certain what the cyclone season will bring, it is important that people in coastal parts of the Northern Territory takes all necessary steps to prepare for the coming season.

[terstorm1012]

could a cyclone hit Sydney?

[AussieMark]

I think the angle of the coast protects us which I am glad about as this part of the coast has like about 4-5 million or more people

[terstorm1012]

ah ok...thanks for the info

[AussieMark]

NT set for big cyclone season
25oct05

THE Territory will suffer up to three cyclones this wet season and one of them will probably be at least category 3.

All the cyclones are likely to be in the Gulf of Carpentaria, the weather bureau said.

Severe weather expert Bri Macpherson said the Wet would be affected by the neutral phase of El Nino, the system of currents and atmospheric oscillation in the Pacific.

She said there would be two to three cyclones during the cyclone season, which runs from November 1 to April 30.

The most to hit the Territory in one Wet was five and some seasons there have been none.

At least one of the cyclones will be a category 3.

Ms Macpherson said an early cyclone -- next month or in December -- was unlikely.

The first cyclone was expected in January, which is normal during "neutral" years.

The forecaster said most of the cyclones would hit the Gulf of Carpentaria but one could appear above Darwin.

Weather bureau staff and members of the Territory Emergency Service will travel to coastal communities -- including Minjilang, Warruwi, Galiwinku, Alyangula, Nhulunbuy and the Tiwi Islands -- to remind people of the dangers of tropical cyclones.

People will be told how to prepare for the threat.

"As we can never be certain what the cyclone season will bring, it is important that people in coastal parts of the Northern Territory take all necessary steps to prepare for the coming season," Ms Macpherson said.

There was no sign of the monsoon, which normally forms in late December.

[P.K.]

They really seem to think you will get some storms this year don't they. I suppose you are overdue them really (Except Ingrid of course)

[AussieMark]

thought bumping these outlooks may make sense now