SW Carribean development
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- WindRunner
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If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
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- Ivanhater
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Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?
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- WindRunner
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ivanhater wrote:Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?
I suspect we'll have one for the next runs . . . so, in about an hour.
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- Ivanhater
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WindRunner wrote:ivanhater wrote:Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?
I suspect we'll have one for the next runs . . . so, in about an hour.
ok, good....thanks
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- johngaltfla
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- Ivanhater
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bahamaswx wrote:I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.
ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture
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- johngaltfla
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ivanhater wrote:bahamaswx wrote:I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.
ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture
Persistance is always key

Especially when any development will be very slow and gradual.
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superfly wrote:WxGuy1 wrote:EDIT: Not to alarm anyone by the MPI, as I read in a publication that most storms only attain 40-50% of their MPI (while annular hurricanes tend to persist at an average of 80% of the MPI). I believe only one storm (Lili) has strengthened beyond what was indicated by the MPI.
Wilma did too or came damn close.
Wilma got to right to her MPI. I looked at it the day the TD developed, and that area of the Caribbean had an MPI of 880mb. She later bottomed out (officially) at 881-882mb.
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