SW Carribean development

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Brent
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#41 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:28 pm

5:30pm TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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#42 Postby theworld » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:36 pm

Here comes Beta.
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#43 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:42 pm

:roll: :roll: this season will NEVER end!
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#44 Postby Cookiely » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:57 pm

I'm surprised. I really thought it might be a couple of weeks before we saw any kind of possible developement.
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#45 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:57 pm

Maybe a little banding starting up, especially on that southern edge

Image
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#46 Postby O Town » Tue Oct 25, 2005 5:48 pm

Oh, real nice. I haven't been looking in this forum much since Wilma landfall, trying to forget the season, I guess I thought that would make it go away. NOT!! No model plots yet for this one for it is not an ivest yet, right? Time to pay attention again. Joy!
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#47 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 25, 2005 5:50 pm

If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.
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#48 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 5:54 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.


well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?
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#49 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:00 pm

ivanhater wrote:
Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.


well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?


I suspect we'll have one for the next runs . . . so, in about an hour.
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#50 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:02 pm

WindRunner wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Team Ragnarok wrote:If it stays where it is for a couple days, it has a chance. But if it moves too far north, it's gonna run into some increasing shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Hopefully the shear will persist and keep this thing from developing much.


well nhc thinks it will develop so i wouldnt count on the shear.....anyone know why this is not an invest yet?


I suspect we'll have one for the next runs . . . so, in about an hour.


ok, good....thanks
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#51 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:03 pm

caneman wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1925/index.html


:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#52 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:05 pm

at this time im not seeing any fronts coming down for a while, 15 day outlook for pcola is to get back in the 80s...so i dont see what would turn this out to sea at this time....other than that im not sure where it will go
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#53 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:06 pm

I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.
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#54 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:09 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
caneman wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1925/index.html


:eek: :eek: :eek:


Wow, what a weird season 1925 was. Only two storms, with one of the two forming on Nov 29 and hitting Tampa in December!!! :eek:
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#55 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:10 pm

bahamaswx wrote:I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.


ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture
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#56 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:10 pm

Anyting from the NRL yet?
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#57 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:12 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Anyting from the NRL yet?


ya, anyone have that site?
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#58 Postby Marilyn » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:13 pm

Hi Everyone,
I have a Question Does the East Coast say like the North Carolina area have storms in Nov? or are they usually too far south and west?

Thanks a bunch :wink:





* Imagine all the People * JL
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#59 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:18 pm

ivanhater wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:I'll give it another 24-36hrs of persistance before jumping on it for development.


ya, first time i heard about it was when steve lyons gave it a quick mention in the tropical update, then saw it again this morn.....it has models on its side and nhc, but your right another day or 2 will give us a better picture


Persistance is always key ;)

Especially when any development will be very slow and gradual.
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#60 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:21 pm

superfly wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:EDIT: Not to alarm anyone by the MPI, as I read in a publication that most storms only attain 40-50% of their MPI (while annular hurricanes tend to persist at an average of 80% of the MPI). I believe only one storm (Lili) has strengthened beyond what was indicated by the MPI.


Wilma did too or came damn close.


Wilma got to right to her MPI. I looked at it the day the TD developed, and that area of the Caribbean had an MPI of 880mb. She later bottomed out (officially) at 881-882mb.
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