Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Interesting. From unfavorable conditions references in the outlook earlier in the day to just no signs of tropical development now. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Conditions are not ideal right now as there is a trough in the vicinity interacting with the wave.But anything is possible if conditions improve but what is a sure thing will be the rain with some squalls for some of the islands in the lesser Antilles chain.

[cycloneye]

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.



5:30 AM TWO.

[cycloneye]

26/0545 UTC 11.3N 55.9W TOO WEAK 91 -- Atlantic Ocean


91L Invest later today?

[cycloneye]

26/1145 UTC 11.7N 57.0W TOO WEAK 91 -- Atlantic Ocean


Still too weak.

[no advance]

If I was a betting man this is the one I pick for development.

[cycloneye]

no advance is now an invest.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20051026 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 1200 051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 55.7W 11.9N 57.7W 12.0N 59.9W 11.9N 62.4W
BAMM 11.3N 55.7W 12.1N 58.1W 12.6N 60.4W 12.9N 62.9W
A98E 11.3N 55.7W 12.0N 57.5W 12.3N 59.7W 12.3N 62.1W
LBAR 11.3N 55.7W 11.7N 57.6W 11.8N 59.7W 11.5N 62.2W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 1200 051029 1200 051030 1200 051031 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 65.0W 11.7N 70.0W 12.1N 74.0W 13.1N 77.3W
BAMM 13.2N 65.5W 14.2N 70.6W 15.9N 74.7W 17.8N 77.8W
A98E 12.5N 64.6W 13.5N 69.2W 14.0N 73.7W 14.8N 77.9W
LBAR 10.9N 64.9W 9.4N 69.6W 9.2N 72.6W 9.4N 74.8W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 66KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 55.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 52.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The first model plots for 91L.

[no advance]

Thanks Cyclone looks like a low tracker.

[mtm4319]

The farthest north any of these models take it is to 17.8N, which would be just south of Jamaica at that longitude. LBAR shows it plowing WSW into Venezuela.

[cycloneye]

Graphic of the first model plots for 91L.

[caribepr]

Boy, good thing ol' Extrap ain't a model line!!! It is a beautiful morning here.

[cycloneye]

Boy, good thing ol' Extrap ain't a model line!!! It is a beautiful morning here.

Yeah true. But I dont like the position where it is now in relation to Puerto Rico so we have to watch it closely caribepr.

Are you back in Culebra?

[no advance]

You think it is beautiful there. It is spectacular here. The cold front took all the humidity out of the air 65 or so. Perfect weather. The invests track looks like our July storms. Bad news for someone.

[Hyperstorm]

It is VERY possible that we will have an Invest 91L rather soon...

I have been watching this tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles since last week and let me tell you that this wave definitely has good potential to become a tropical cyclone over the next 2-3 days.

Over the past few days, the system has been experiencing some moderate westerly flow in the upper-levels. This westerly flow has not been strong enough to totally dissipate this system. In fact, the system persisted well enough in that type of environment. Notice that I said "that" type of environment. That's right...conditions are changing as I type. In fact, at this time, the system is slowly developing a fanning out of convection south of it. This has been impeded by an upper-level low over South America, however, that upper-level low is dissipating and expected to continue doing so. Conditions should improve slowly today and tomorrow, with the GFS is forecasting a very favorable upper-level ridge of high pressure in 2-3 days over the central Caribbean. Unfortunately, if that pans out, this would provide unusually favorable conditions for this wave to continue to strengthen. Combine improving upper-level winds with the words...October, Caribbean Sea, very warm SSTs....and we have trouble.

Even though is kind of early, this system appears to have its eyes over the Greater Antilles. You can see the remnants of the cold front and trough that Wilma left behind NW of Haiti. This trough is forecast by some models to develop a low pressure center and move northward. The flow around this developing low should induce a WNW track for the developing wave east of the islands. Anyone from Puerto Rico to Cuba should watch the progress of this system carefully.

Speaking of the current pattern in the Atlantic...There is currently a HUGE upper-level ridge in the central and eastern Atlantic, which is extremely unusual for this time of the year. If that ridge were in place in August or September (it was not generally the case), we would have seen several Cape Verde storms develop. It is amazing to see such favorable conditions setting up this late in the season. This is the same ridge that managed to provide the VERY favorable conditions for Wilma to bottom out into a historic hurricane. It has moved from the western Atlantic toward the eastern Atlantic over the past several days.

Some people have talked about the wave in the eastern Atlantic. Right now, the wave is vigorous for this time of year, but upper-level conditions are very unfavorable for development. However, this large upper-level ridge NW of it, should provide a more favorable easterly flow as the wave moves westward. If it manages to hold on to its well-defined structure, we could very well be dealing with yet another developing system. I wouldn't bet anything just yet, since it would be a first for a system to develop that far into the Tropical Atlantic this late in the year, but the potential will be there as it moves west.

What an amazing season we're witnessing...

[Hyperstorm]

Oops...it's already an invest. I can't believe it took me more than 15 minutes to finish my post. Oh well, I must admit that I have to carefully review what I write.

[caribepr]

Boy, good thing ol' Extrap ain't a model line!!! It is a beautiful morning here.

Yeah true. But I dont like the position where it is now in relation to Puerto Rico so we have to watch it closely caribepr.

Are you back in Culebra?

Yep! I got back on Monday - and REALLY happy to be back!
All other bits aside, it was horrendous to not be able to go online and have to watch Wilma and Alpha via cable television. No need to explain more on that one to you.

adding: Yes, I'm concerned as well, but other than keeping an eye on it (and cooking a bunch of food for the freezer, which I did last night since I'll be busy this week), I'll just concentrate on the cart!

[cycloneye]

Oops...it's already an invest. I can't believe it took me more than 15 minutes to finish my post. Oh well, I must admit that I have to carefully review what I write.

That's ok my friend.

From where I am in Puerto Rico watching this wave very closely as by the position where it is I am a little worried here.Yes it resembles a september pattern rather like late october in the tropical atlantic.

[caribepr]

You think it is beautiful there. It is spectacular here. The cold front took all the humidity out of the air 65 or so. Perfect weather. The invests track looks like our July storms. Bad news for someone.

I've lived on Merrit Island (once the southern end, once the northern) and love those sorts of days there (dolphins and otters get all excited too). But I'll take Culebra anytime

[cycloneye]

Floater 2 over 91L.