Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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El Nino
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#41 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:16 am

And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:
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#42 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:18 am

11:30am TWO:

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.
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#43 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:29 am

The NHC is a broken record with this one. :lol:
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#44 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:46 am

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#45 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:50 am



Huh? That animation is three weeks old...
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bigmike

#46 Postby bigmike » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:50 am

Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:
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#47 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:51 am

WxGuy1 wrote:


Huh? That animation is three weeks old...

Oops, just noticed I dont why it is not updating. :oops:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
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#48 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:56 am

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


How do you know that? This system could have potential to develop. Also models make it look like possible gulf threat. Also massive ridging I am told over Atlantic.

Matt
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#49 Postby caneman » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:56 am

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


Care to explain why?
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#50 Postby fuzzyblow » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:07 pm

El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)
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#51 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:14 pm

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


I want your crystal ball. :P
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#52 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:19 pm

fuzzyblow wrote:
El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)


Perfect, February is the most interesting winter month these last years ... :grrr:
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#53 Postby fuzzyblow » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:57 pm

El Nino wrote:
fuzzyblow wrote:
El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)


Perfect, February is the most interesting winter month these last years ... :grrr:


Haha :wink:
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#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:01 pm

W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY. UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM THE WAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH BARBADOS AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON THU.


2 PM Discussion.
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#55 Postby caribepr » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:03 pm

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


Well, the very cool thing about this forum is this, you don't have to read any post you don't want to read.
For some of us, anything out there nearby has potential to seriously impact our lives and is watched until the need to watch no longer exists. For others, it is interest in the patterns of weather alone. Regardless - no interest, don't read! Wa La!
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#56 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:
THE REST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON THU.


2 PM Discussion.


Ready for some animation Cycloneye ? :roll:
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#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20051026 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 1800 051027 0600 051027 1800 051028 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 57.3W 11.3N 59.7W 11.1N 62.3W 10.8N 65.1W
BAMM 11.3N 57.3W 11.7N 59.8W 12.0N 62.4W 12.2N 65.1W
A98E 11.3N 57.3W 11.7N 59.6W 11.9N 62.1W 11.6N 64.9W
LBAR 11.3N 57.3W 11.5N 59.6W 11.7N 62.2W 11.7N 65.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 1800 051029 1800 051030 1800 051031 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 67.7W 9.8N 72.7W 9.5N 76.7W 9.9N 80.6W
BAMM 12.5N 68.0W 13.3N 73.0W 14.3N 76.9W 15.6N 80.2W
A98E 11.2N 67.6W 11.5N 72.8W 11.4N 77.7W 11.0N 82.0W
LBAR 11.4N 68.1W 11.1N 73.3W 10.9N 76.8W 11.2N 79.0W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 57.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 53.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models.Wow look at the ship intensity 75 kts.
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#58 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:47 pm

Hmmm hurricane in 4 days ... Who will be the first to reach Beta then ?
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#59 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:07 pm

caribepr wrote:Wa La!


Voila?
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#60 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:09 pm

El Nino wrote:Hmmm hurricane in 4 days ... Who will be the first to reach Beta then ?


I call dibs on 90L.
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