90L Invest SW Caribbean

[tampaflwx]

Just some random late season storms that originated from that southwest caribbean. I skipped around from the 20's and 30's to more recent years. Didn't include a lot of stuff in between.

[baitism]

That hurricane Gordon track is insane.

[tampaflwx]

18z models for Invest 90L



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

[jdray]

That hurricane Gordon track is insane.

I clearly remember the mets basically saying that they did not know where Gordon was heading towards next. They gave up even trying to guess...

[Weatherfreak14]

Ah, I remeber that too. I was little and I remember watching TWC all about it.

[tampaflwx]

Wow, you can clearly see cyclonic activity with the current loop of this storm! check it out! i bet it's already a depression.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[mtm4319]

Tropical systems that passed within 100 nautical miles of 90L's location (10.2, 81.1) between October 1 and December 31 include some of the storms that tampaflwx just posted, plus the following:

#6 in 1862:


#19 in 1887:


#8 in 1906:


#9 in 1908:


#11 in 1909:


#6 in 1912:


#18 in 1933:


An unnamed storm in 1964:


Martha in 1969:


Joan in 1988:


There are 15 in all, and two of them made US landfall. Both made direct hits on the Florida Keys, while one of them did a 180 off the Carolina coast and passed through the state a second time. Eight of the fifteen made landfall in Central America, including one of the two that hit Florida (the crazy 1906 storm). One of those eight also hit South America (Joan, coming from the east so that's discarded).

The Katrina 1999 and unnamed 1964 tracks look best to me from a historical perspective.

[gatorcane]

wow, I can't believe that another storm is trying to brew and could move into the NW Caribbean once it crosses Nicaragua...

[tampaflwx]

does anyone else see the cyclonic spin that this storm now shows?

[bahamaswx]

That hurricane Gordon track is insane.

I clearly remember the mets basically saying that they did not know where Gordon was heading towards next. They gave up even trying to guess...

Often referred to as the "drunken" hurricane Gordon.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO!

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[n o o d l z]

How is this NOT a tropical storm yet...it has to be, there's no way. At the very least a tropical depression, how has this not been upgraded...just by looking at the satellite it looks like it wants to pull a Wilma in the next 24 hours.

[ronibaida]

I do, i cant believe that they havnt upgraded the invest to a TD!!!

[cjrciadt]

Tom Terry just said here on WFTV, it is most likely TD26 already.

[tampaflwx]

Waaaaaahhhh I saw it first ^check a few posts back, even before the updated NHC discussion

[cjrciadt]

They can take their time to update it(NHC), they need some rest.

[tampaflwx]

Stacy Stweart will get all the rest he needs during his retirement, but right now he needs to get on this!!

[bigmike]

They'll probably wait until the recon gets down there tomorrow. Satellite images can be deceiving a lot of times.

[tampaflwx]

They'll probably wait until the recon gets down there tomorrow. Satellite images can be deceiving a lot of times.

By tomorrow morning it could pull a Wilma!

[n o o d l z]

Do you think they'll upgrade if it turns annular in the next 24 hours?