T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Hyperstorm]

Tropical Storm Beta is truly developing this morning. Satellite imagery reveals a MUCH improved structure compared to yesterday and banding is very evident in nearly all sides. It is a very impressive little system with an appearance very similar to Hurricane Michelle in November 2001 (except that this is a much smaller system in its developing stages). The signs all point at strengthening over the next couple of days.

As I mentioned yesterday, this system is very small, which means that it will be susceptible to rapid changes in strength. It is situated over the one of the warmest and deepest waters of the basin and while upper-level conditions are not extremely favorable (being that there is no well-defined upper-level high over the storm), as I mentioned yesterday, they are favorable enough (with easterly flow in the upper-levels) to allow intensification...maybe even rapid intensification (Since the system is small, it really doesn't need extreme high pressure on top of it.).

A minimal hurricane is almost a given. Anything after that will depend on how long the system remains over water...and it looks like it will remain there for a while to come. The GFDL is forecasting this to become a significant hurricane and this is a very real possibility.

[cjrciadt]

Pretty well defined for a small compact system.

[cjrciadt]

[quandary]

Well... this is mostly a theoretical question, but, Beta should be female and Alpha male. Likewise, we alternate down the list, Gamma is male and Delta is female. Why? Because Wilma was the last name on the list and it was female, so the next storm should always be male-female-male (and hopefully no more storms that! please!).

[HeatherAKC]

Someone tell the LBAR to knock it off.

[cjrciadt]

Repositioned E and moving N, Huh????

[Brent]

Track is also slower... Nicaragua may have a major hurricane.

[mtm4319]

It's still quite early, but the possibility is now arising that Beta will cause damages worthy of retirement. The NHC and WMO might actually have to decide something here.

[cjrciadt]

The newest Wind Prob.

[Praxus]

Just appending the year would work. 'Beta2005'

[aerojad]

Thankfully the LBAR seems to be the odd man out... and maybe Florida can breathe a sigh of relief.



I shake my head realising we're at the 2nd B storm of the year, though.

[JamesFromMaine2]

with the relocation of the center further east and the north movement does any one think that the next model runs will be affected and could this center be a threat to the US?

[Sanibel]

This is the craziest season.

Now we have a little tight nicely-structured cyclone down in the nook of the Gulf of Panama.

I thought this was the furthest south a system ever formed in the Caribbean, but records show there were several others that formed at this location over the years. I was confused with my facts. Hurricanes don't head to this area fully-formed - but they do form there on occasion.

You can even see a slight outflow ribbing over Panama.

Let's hope the steering currents don't change...

[thunderchief]

before the season, if someone said to you we would be on the letter B in october what would you have said?

[JamesFromMaine2]

before the season, if someone said to you we would be on the letter B in october what would you have said?

I would have thought maybe B if the season wasn't very active! lol but not B the 2nd time around as in Beta! lol

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

It appears that Beta is undergoing a period of rapid intensification...The Fist Based on the history of past small systems (i.e. Bret 1999, etc.) under favorable conditions located in very warm waters, this system can become a hurricane within the next 12-18 hours (at the latest) and a major hurricane in about 36 hours (late tomorrow night in this case).

These are the kinds of systems that I am more fascinated with...tiny circulations. These can develop the "dreaded pinhole eye" and undergo explosive development at such small size. It is very unfortunate that it is so close to land since it could be a disastrous.

I double checked some information and yes, as Forecaster Beven mentioned, the waters in the SW Caribbean are not as deep as what I had thought. We can only hope for a stall, but even if it were to happen, the circulation is so small that it will probably not cause tremendous upwelling.

[HurricaneGirl]

Already looking like a cane.. what's up with these rapidly intensifying storms here lately?

[HurricaneGirl]

before the season, if someone said to you we would be on the letter B in october what would you have said?

I'd have said Holy Crap!

[thunderchief]

We can only hope for a stall

I think thats actually the worst case scenario here. Prolonged rain enhanced by orographic lifting on the muddy slopes of central america=disaster, as we have seen countless times before even from weak hurricanes and tropical storms.

[yzerfan]

The NHC forecasters are already sounding rather cranky about this one. One complaint already from them about the Columbian and Nicaraguan weather services because no one's picking up the phone when they call down there.