The EPAC still has some activity left befoe it shuts down.
92E Invest at EPAC
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cycloneye
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92E Invest at EPAC
The EPAC still has some activity left befoe it shuts down.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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WTPN21 PHNC 271100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271051Z OCT 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 116.7W TO 12.9N 121.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 117.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.7W, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE
AERIAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CON-
VECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281051Z.//
TD very soon.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271051Z OCT 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 116.7W TO 12.9N 121.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 117.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.7W, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE
AERIAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CON-
VECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281051Z.//
TD very soon.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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HurricaneBill
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