T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

aerojad · #41 Postby **aerojad** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:36 pm

no one wants to deal with this season anymore, heh

#42 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:41 pm

Very intense cloud tops on the latest image, blue is the highest color on the chart.

Hyperstorm · #43 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:48 pm

thunderchief wrote:
We can only hope for a stall

I think thats actually the worst case scenario here. Prolonged rain enhanced by orographic lifting on the muddy slopes of central america=disaster, as we have seen countless times before even from weak hurricanes and tropical storms.

Thunderchief...

I was referring to a stall over water where some upwelling could help spin down the circulation somewhat. It is a rather small system, so it is not yet causing any major rains over land. Of course, we would all hope for a fast movement toward any direction, but the steering currents do not agree on that.

#44 Postby **WxGuy1** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:56 pm

2pm Advisory wrote:TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
{snip}
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

OK, so it's at 81.4W after an eastward relocation... Or is it:

11am Advisory wrote:REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

Hmm, so it moves from 81.3W to 81.4W, how is that an eastward re-location? LOL. I think they were kind of sloppy in the 2pm advisory, since the pressure in the text is 997mb, but the pressure in the "Repeating the 2pm position..." block is 1000mb. It seems they didn't update the headlines nor the second mention of pressure between the 11am and 2pm advisories.

#45 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:15 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Very intense cloud tops on the latest image, blue is the highest color on the chart.

No, it can and sometimes does go to white. Unless you want to be technical and say white isn't a color. :roll:

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:17 pm

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA AT 27/1800 UTC IS NEAR
11.6N 81.4W OR ABOUT 60 NM/115 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND AND ABOUT 140 NM/260 KM EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
BETA IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR BETA TO BECOME A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE COLOMBIA ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 15N TO
18N...INCLUDING IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF JAMAICA...BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

2 PM Discussion.

JamesFromMaine2 · #47 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:20 pm

curtadams wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:Very intense cloud tops on the latest image, blue is the highest color on the chart.

No, it can and sometimes does go to white. Unless you want to be technical and say white isn't a color.

there is some white showing up in the middle of the blue! With Wilma when she was going through her RIC there was alot of white showing up in the center!

#48 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:24 pm

curtadams wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:Very intense cloud tops on the latest image, blue is the highest color on the chart.

No, it can and sometimes does go to white. Unless you want to be technical and say white isn't a color.

True, Wilma had some white at her peak. It is still very,very rare to see above blue on the Vapor even with the most instense storms this year.

Sheer map

Heat potential

JamesFromMaine2 · #49 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:32 pm

ok so what is Beta's Max potential?

#50 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:35 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:ok so what is Beta's Max potential?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
Storms almost never their max. potential, not even Wilma.

Website · #51 Postby **Brent** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:49 pm

Nicaragua better hope not...

#52 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:49 pm

18:00GMT model guidance:

WHXX01 KWBC 271845
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051027 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 1800 051028 0600 051028 1800 051029 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 81.4W 12.4N 82.4W 13.3N 83.5W 13.9N 84.7W
BAMM 11.5N 81.4W 12.4N 82.0W 13.2N 82.7W 13.8N 83.7W
A98E 11.5N 81.4W 12.0N 81.7W 12.5N 82.5W 13.0N 83.4W
LBAR 11.5N 81.4W 12.5N 81.7W 14.2N 82.6W 15.8N 83.8W
SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 72KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 1800 051030 1800 051031 1800 051101 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 86.2W 12.6N 90.9W 11.4N 97.4W 11.1N 104.4W
BAMM 13.8N 85.1W 13.0N 89.4W 12.2N 94.9W 11.9N 100.4W
A98E 13.8N 84.4W 15.9N 86.2W 17.3N 88.1W 17.6N 88.9W
LBAR 17.7N 84.9W 21.2N 85.2W 27.0N 82.7W 30.6N 74.3W
SHIP 83KTS 87KTS 83KTS 71KTS
DSHP 83KTS 87KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 81.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

Derek Ortt · #53 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:50 pm

same thing with san andreas island

#54 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:58 pm

Latest model tracks

tampaflwx · #55 Postby **tampaflwx** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:09 pm

How would the track of this storm differ if it were to become a small storm compared to a large storm in the near future?

thermos · #56 Postby **thermos** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:14 pm

The LBAR is still locked on an older Wilma path.

MortisFL · #57 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:32 pm

Canadian and UKMET keep it offshore

#58 Postby **sponger** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:11 pm

I would take it easy on NHC's 2pm update. Having the president visit your work place can be a little distracting. I heard Stewart was frisked every time he came back from the bathroom (just kidding)

Website · #59 Postby **Brent** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:34 pm

sponger wrote:I would take it easy on NHC's 2pm update. Having the president visit your work place can be a little distracting. I heard Stewart was frisked every time he came back from the bathroom (just kidding)

Steve H. · #60 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:58 pm

Forget the Dang LBAR.....go read up on it. But the lower probability scenario could happen, since Beta will be around after Sunday and we may have a split ridge early next week.

HPC: BETA IS FCST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CNTRL AMERICA A DAY SLOWER THAN
CONTINUITY PER THE LATEST TPC FCST. IF ANYTHING IS LEFT OF THE SYS
AFTER THIS WEEKEND...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. A LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO
INVOLVES A NEW TROPICAL LOW FORMING ALG A TRPCL WAVE MOVG THRU THE
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PD POTENTIALLY ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF
BETA ON WED.

T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online